AMD is at a critical support level in the low $160's. If that can hold, we still have $195 on the table in the coming months.

Earnings buy didn't pay off immediately as I hoped it would as sentiment pushed down, but I'll average down in the morning if that support holds.

For those of you not in yet, wait to see what the morning holds. If low $160's holds, tomorrow could be an entry point. Stop $159.75

If you think it's too rich, I can't blame you. Maybe it comes back further.

I'm loving AMD as long as Lisa Su is at the helm.

Quacked said:

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I'm loving AMD as long as Lisa Su is at the helm.

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Great company but I'll love it better in the $130ish range.

AMD at the 21 is probably a good buy.

Will try to post more, but have been focusing my energy on Randy's group.

Had good swings this week with $COIN and $LULU.

I laughed and laughed and laughed at SMCI selling off today.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Will try to post more, but have been focusing my energy on Randy's group.

Had good swings this week with $COIN and $LULU.

I laughed and laughed and laughed at SMCI selling off today.

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Good to see you bud and I hope all is well for you.

ProgN said:

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South Platte said:

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ProgN said:

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FTR, If POWL hits $105+ tomorrow, then I'll probably book profits because I still think the market is about to rollover. I posted yesterday I bot 1 AMD 3/1 $150 put and it's looking like its going to reward me. It's hard not to bank that type of one day ROI.

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Not questioning you, but seriously? This thing could run over $100 tomorrow??

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Yes, it's a microcap that prints money and they just smashed earnings expectations, raised their dividend (very little but still positive), and doubled their backlog. Pull up a one year chart and look what they did August 1st last year. It went from $60 to $90 the day after reporting earnings for a 50% ROI. I'm not expecting a 50% move tomorrow, but wouldn't complain if they did. I wouldn't think twice about selling it immediately.

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To add onto this....

Had analyst avg estimate of $0.84 per share for this fiscal 1st quarter (they have a 9/30 year-end) and they dropped $1.98 per share. Analysist were looking for $5.09 for this fiscal year ending 9/30/2024, but with $1.98 in the bag after one quarter, this thing should run well past $100 in the morning IMO. Last quarter when they made $1.95 per share, the stock ran to a high of $97.63 a few weeks after reporting and then slid down to a 90 day low of around $77 a few days ago. Previous quarter results going back during 2023 were: $1.52, $0.72 & $0.10. They now have built backlog, supply chain issues are still a bit of thing in the electrical space with switch-gear and other components but that is getting better so hopefully they are hitting solid volumes of work with higher margins and overhead leverage.

Their trailing P/E was in the 17x range with recent pricing so if analyst and buyers estimate $7.00 per share for year ending 9/30/2024, that is $119/ share. Repeat what they just did for 3 more quarters 17x that is $135/ share but of course larger market forces could beat it down at any time.

This is is where I get too greedy sometimes and don't lock my profits.

AgCPA95 said:

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ProgN said:

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South Platte said:

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ProgN said:

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FTR, If POWL hits $105+ tomorrow, then I'll probably book profits because I still think the market is about to rollover. I posted yesterday I bot 1 AMD 3/1 $150 put and it's looking like its going to reward me. It's hard not to bank that type of one day ROI.

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Not questioning you, but seriously? This thing could run over $100 tomorrow??

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Yes, it's a microcap that prints money and they just smashed earnings expectations, raised their dividend (very little but still positive), and doubled their backlog. Pull up a one year chart and look what they did August 1st last year. It went from $60 to $90 the day after reporting earnings for a 50% ROI. I'm not expecting a 50% move tomorrow, but wouldn't complain if they did. I wouldn't think twice about selling it immediately.

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To add onto this....

Had analyst avg estimate of $0.84 per share for this fiscal 1st quarter (they have a 9/30 year-end) and they dropped $1.98 per share. Analysist were looking for $5.09 for this fiscal year ending 9/30/2024, but with $1.98 in the bag after one quarter, this thing should run well past $100 in the morning IMO. Last quarter when they made $1.95 per share, the stock ran to a high of $97.63 a few weeks after reporting and then slid down to a 90 day low of around $77 a few days ago. Previous quarter results going back during 2023 were: $1.52, $0.72 & $0.10. They now have built backlog, supply chain issues are still a bit of thing in the electrical space with switch-gear and other components but that is getting better so hopefully they are hitting solid volumes of work with higher margins and overhead leverage.

Their trailing P/E was in the 17x range with recent pricing so if analyst and buyers estimate $7.00 per share for year ending 9/30/2024, that is $119/ share. Repeat what they just did for 3 more quarters 17x that is $135/ share but of course larger market forces could beat it down at any time.

This is is where I get too greedy sometimes and don't lock my profits.

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ProgN said:

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I'm taking POWL off the table.

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Was in at $81.14 and out at $109.39.

Great call on POWL

South Platte said:

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ProgN said:

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FTR, If POWL hits $105+ tomorrow, then I'll probably book profits because I still think the market is about to rollover. I posted yesterday I bot 1 AMD 3/1 $150 put and it's looking like its going to reward me. It's hard not to bank that type of one day ROI.

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Not questioning you, but seriously? This thing could run over $100 tomorrow??

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Talon2DSO said:

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ProgN said:

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I'm taking POWL off the table.

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Was in at $81.14 and out at $109.39.

Great call on POWL

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Not bad pay for less than 24 hours.

ProgN said:

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South Platte said:

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ProgN said:

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FTR, If POWL hits $105+ tomorrow, then I'll probably book profits because I still think the market is about to rollover. I posted yesterday I bot 1 AMD 3/1 $150 put and it's looking like its going to reward me. It's hard not to bank that type of one day ROI.

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Not questioning you, but seriously? This thing could run over $100 tomorrow??

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Incredible. That's called winning.

Over here not participating and missing a 38% profit in 24 hours

$POWL - out at $117.

I was in at $73.90 back on 10/20/2023.

Dead on this morning with your $119 share price estimation

El_duderino said:

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Over here not participating and missing a 38% profit in 24 hours

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I only made 37.3%

AgCPA95 said:

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$POWL - out at $117.

I was in at $73.90 back on 10/20/2023.

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Well done sir. I sold too early this AM, but a win is a win.

I've been profitably in and out of POWL for a few months now. This time in at $81.57 and out at $$112.51 in less than 24 hours. Thanks PROG! My only regret is dropping out too soon! Still a great win.

TLT - I took some profits from Monday's $94.50 buy at $96.80 which was around 50% retrace of the previous move down. In case it wants to engage a more choppy pattern. If we get $90-$93 again I will be buying a couple hundred shares. If not, I'll just ride with what's left looking for $120.

Also moved to 40% high yield bond fund in my retirement accounts as we get closer to rates coming down and bonds going up.

Remember, this is a topping play in bonds. The expectation is not a long term bull market. Quite the opposite actually. We're trying to profit from the bull steepening that's looking likely before the major bond selloff this year or next.

AMD with wonderful 1hr and 4hr divergence. For those that don't understand divergence, positive divergence is when a stock is making a higher low while technical indicators like MACD, RSI, MFI, Keltners, Bollingers, etc are showing oversold conditions. This indicates potential continuation of the prior trend. The opposite, negative divergence, is when a stock is making a lower high while technicals are showing overbought.

At the same time, when technicals are showing overbought like this was on the daily over the last couple of days, but price is at all-time highs, there really isn't any indication of divergence. Only the technicals moving down from that overbought state could choreograph a potential future divergence. And we're possibly seeing it now in the hourly candles taking shape as positive.

Not a guarantee by any means, but a good initial sign. There's deeper explanations of divergence and it can act differently depending on the technical indicator. Highly suggest getting familiar with the concept.

Interesting day!

My AMD's stopped out at $165.43, for a 6% loss on $176.85 purchase (oof!)
I sold my POWL's for $122.79 for a 52% gain on $80.885 purchase (woohoo!)

Overall, I'm up 4% between the two.
Overall, I'm up 21% between the two

Lessons learned: put a much tighter stop on AMD or even better, find a better entry point and sit it out until see the proper signals. It was a known gamble, but the market makers knew what they were going to do long before the earnings report.

Overall, I made $20 $217 that I didn't have before


Edit: Corrected based on 3 shares of AMD vs 6 shares of POWL...