topher06 said:

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Thinking they're going to puke the market again?

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Man, you need to ask someone who knows what they're doing lol. I'm just trying to learn so take everything I say with a grain of salt

Yeah, I see/read the comments along that line of thinking. However, recession delivers no more than a 3% drop in demand in the energy industry and that is why it's a safer bet for your money in a recession as this group continues to perform. My heartburn comes from hearing this recession argument for 18+ months and when it wasn't "recession" it was,....EV's will deliver fossil fuel demand destruction, banking system problems will depress oil, inflation will drive demand down hurting oil, interest rate hikes strengthen the dollar and that weakens oil prices, etc. etc. I'm not saying the aforementioned reasons are false, I'm saying this Administration and the MSM change the unwarranted narrative in an effort to hold down fossil fuels because this Administration's policies on fossil fuels is a complete disaster as they blindly lead this country into the green energy steal. Never thought I'd write the following words, - listen to Saudi as they are telling the truth - ...it's sickening what this Administration is doing to this country and energy. Today's EIA says 8.1 million barrel draw and WTI is down $1.83. Last 4 weeks have been draws. The diesel part of the equation in today's numbers is a sneeze in the atmosphere. Historic numbers point out that we are in trouble. China flight travel has now have surpassed 2019 same period levels, fuel/oil usage worldwide is up. But, but, but, WTI and Brent are down...Saudi been saying since last July there is a disconnect between NY and actual supply driven prices. Saudi tightens the valve in May 2023 (U.S. driving season). We'll see who has bigger ballz in May'23 when it comes to oil price, WTI/NY or OPEC. I'll put my money on OPEC because you cant make chicken salad out of.... We are is a terrible position. And, if Saudi wants to really drive the point home about the manipulation in WTI & Brent, all they have to do is "embargo" the U.S. for unfair trade practices. JMO

Spoony Love said:

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If selling picks up steam like this morning, it will blow right through 402.

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If MSFT, CMG, GOOG and BA can't buoy the market, then the breath across a lot of sectors is very negative. Just imagine what it look like if they were all down big. I'd urge caution.

Just going to leave this here.



Those of you who stick on intraday candles - that double top near the bottom of the image is what's called a bear market. 3/4 of the time (2002-2007) was spent going up. And mostly in a choppy "melt up" fashion. On either side of the melt up was the dot com bust which wiped out half of the gains from the dot com boom, and the 2008 crash which was actually just the bear market finishing what it started considering the problems that led to 2008 came into existence following the period of cheap (relative to preceding history) money, dollar devaluation, and parabolic innovation in the 90's.

So we then enter a period of even crazier parabolic valuation growth led mostly by further dollar devaluation, even cheaper money (which many of you seem to think is the "normal" when you reference historical rates), and innovation that was fueled entirely by monetary policy invasion into the free market.. essentially stealing future dollars and future growth from the future for use NOW (which was 10 years ago). And the last leg of this (2020-2022) was even more parabolic extreme than the 10 years that led up to it.

And you keep thinking this is all normal.

We now enter a time where the central bankers HAD to raise rates because the extreme inflation created by their decades of stupidity (we can hope, otherwise its called evil) was finally catching up. And now they cant lower rates because inflation will rocket again. But they cant raise rates because the banking system will collapse alongside anything that is even remotely significantly leveraged with debt. So they keep gaslighting you with this "soft landing" BS. What does that even mean? Look at the chart. It means instead of the market crushing all of the fake and propped up values over the last decade, it spends the next 3-5 years slowly approaching the same level it needs to be at right now. They want you to be the frog in the pot. Because they don't want you to blame them. They need your cooperation for them and their network to be able to scoop up cheap assets after the next bottom and before the next major dollar devaluation. If we crashed like we should, you would blame them and either severely reform the FED or get rid of it altogether. But a slow choke out.. they can convince you that they saved you from EVEN WORSE. And they can start the whole process again. Rinse repeat, but on increasingly shorter timeframes each time they do it.

Look at 2000-2008 again. Look at the market that preceded it. In 1999 nobody thought we could lose so much value so quickly. And it took 10 years to complete.

Why we keep thinking it won't happen again is beyond my understanding. You got used to plummeting value of your dollar and cheap borrowing. But those days are gone for a long time. And this won't be 2008. Because that was the end of a bear market. We just experienced 2000 on a larger scale. And we're currently experiencing 2001 on a larger scale. Zoom out. And plan accordingly.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Just going to leave this here.



Those of you who stick on intraday candles - that double top near the bottom of the image is what's called a bear market. 3/4 of the time (2002-2007) was spent going up. And mostly in a choppy "melt up" fashion. On either side of the melt up was the dot com bust which wiped out half of the gains from the dot com boom, and the 2008 crash which was actually just the bear market finishing what it started considering the problems that led to 2008 came into existence following the period of cheap (relative to preceding history) money, dollar devaluation, and parabolic innovation in the 90's.

So we then enter a period of even crazier parabolic valuation growth led mostly by further dollar devaluation, even cheaper money (which many of you seem to think is the "normal" when you reference historical rates), and innovation that was fueled entirely by monetary policy invasion into the free market.. essentially stealing future dollars and future growth from the future for use NOW (which was 10 years ago). And the last leg of this (2020-2022) was even more parabolic extreme than the 10 years that led up to it.

And you keep thinking this is all normal.

We now enter a time where the central bankers HAD to raise rates because the extreme inflation created by their decades of stupidity (we can hope, otherwise its called evil) was finally catching up. And now they cant lower rates because inflation will rocket again. But they cant raise rates because the banking system will collapse alongside anything that is even remotely significantly leveraged with debt. So they keep gaslighting you with this "soft landing" BS. What does that even mean? Look at the chart. It means instead of the market crushing all of the fake and propped up values over the last decade, it spends the next 3-5 years slowly approaching the same level it needs to be at right now. They want you to be the frog in the pot. Because they don't want you to blame them. They need your cooperation for them and their network to be able to scoop up cheap assets after the next bottom and before the next major dollar devaluation. If we crashed like we should, you would blame them and either severely reform the FED or get rid of it altogether. But a slow choke out.. they can convince you that they saved you from EVEN WORSE. And they can start the whole process again. Rinse repeat, but on increasingly shorter timeframes each time they do it.

Look at 2000-2008 again. Look at the market that preceded it. In 1999 nobody thought we could lose so much value so quickly. And it took 10 years to complete.

Why we keep thinking it won't happen again is beyond my understanding. You got used to plummeting value of your dollar and cheap borrowing. But those days are gone for a long time. And this won't be 2008. Because that was the end of a bear market. We just experienced 2000 on a larger scale. And we're currently experiencing 2001 on a larger scale. Zoom out. And plan accordingly.

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topher06 said:

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Okay so what do we do about it? Buy gold and bullets? I do subscribe to Farmer's preaching that energy is extremely undervalued right now, both oil and especially natural gas.

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Blow & hookers, no?

With all of the guns I've seen posted about being lost on various fishing expeditions, I assume I can just go to any lake nearby and grab a few if **** hits the fan.