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24,672,522 Views | 233367 Replies | Last: 6 min ago by confucius_ag
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 4:13p, 4/26/23
If the Fed pauses in May and energy is allowed to run for the summer & fall, inflation goes bye-bye. The increase in energy cost is a defacto tax that reduces personal discretionary income. Spending will be restricted to essentials only. This should have happened last year and we wouldn't be where we are today, but I digress. Then we head to S&P 5,000.

In 2022, The Green Energy folks stripped energy from the Fed as a tool to combat inflation. Jotato flooded the world with SPR crude to keep pump prices cheap for Americans and get progressive liberals re-elected. I imagine JP would have whooped Jotato's ass had he been allowed to for the SPR shenanigans. JP can deliver a soft landing to this economy if energy is allowed to run this summer & fall.

There's a lot of what you wrote that I agree with, but it's not the time right now.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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4:19p, 4/26/23
PXD CEO Sheffield announces retirement
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topher06
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 5:21p, 4/26/23
No chance energy will be allowed to run in the near future. Trying to keep this non political - there is so much anti oil and gas ideology engrained in the various government oversight agencies that they can stall for years easily
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to topher06 • 5:34p, 4/26/23
topher06 said:
No chance energy will be allowed to run in the near future. Trying to keep this non political - there is so much anti oil and gas ideology engrained in the various government oversight agencies that they can stall for years easily
I'm not sure how "they" can stop a run in fossil fuel energy prices this summer? If the manipulation in WTI & Brent price suppression continues, Saudi will just continue to turn the valve to "off" as a counter.

You know, it would be a grand opportunity for "them" to let fossil fuels have a price run and then claim "...EV's and electric whatever would be so much cheaper than bad expensive fossil fuels...blah blah..."..
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Heineken-Ashi
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5:41p, 4/26/23
META just touched 50% retrace of last year's drop.
MSFT gap closed from April of 2022.
AMZN looks to be gearing up for a move to $135 or higher.
GOOG wants $117 50% correction of its last year's drop.

These alone can move the market up until they approach overbought positions. And once they do, if they drop, the whole thing will move with them.

Always know where the 50% retracement level is, whether up or down.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Boy Named Sue
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5:48p, 4/26/23
AG
Buy stock in roofing companies. My house is getting pounded with some as big as softballs
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FJ43
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In reply to topher06 • 6:19p, 4/26/23
topher06 said:
Oh I get it, we are all mostly guessing (except maybe FJ who can predict the future). Hope you went with your gut on that little blip up though.


Sheesh wish I could predict the future. I'm just a redneck trader.

Traders market is just if this then that. Works the majority of the time. But discipline and execution are what makes the difference.
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ProgN
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In reply to Boy Named Sue • 6:42p, 4/26/23
Boy Named Sue said:
Buy stock in roofing companies. My house is getting pounded with some as big as softballs
Waco is getting hit by softball size hail right now in some areas, according to a friend of mine because I don't live there.

ETA: Stay safe brother.
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Bocephus
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In reply to ProgN • 6:55p, 4/26/23
AG
ProgN said:
Boy Named Sue said:
Buy stock in roofing companies. My house is getting pounded with some as big as softballs
Waco is getting hit by softball size hail right now in some areas, according to a friend of mine because I don't live there.

ETA: Stay safe brother.


That is either baseball size or your friend has a GIANT hand
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
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Boy Named Sue
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In reply to Bocephus • 7:04p, 4/26/23
AG
LOL well I wasn't going to go get the biggest ones. But yeah the biggest ones were baseball size, not softball. Any cars in the neighborhood that weren't in a garage all have busted windshields. Mine were in garage, thankfully. Got a busted skylight, dented gutters, and the top of the pergola is trashed. Roof too, of course.
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ProgN
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In reply to Bocephus • 7:15p, 4/26/23
That's 'Boy Named Sue' hand in the pic he posted. I just passed along what my friend said to me. Storm hasn't got to me yet.
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ProgN
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In reply to Boy Named Sue • 7:17p, 4/26/23
Boy Named Sue said:
LOL well I wasn't going to go get the biggest ones. But yeah the biggest ones were baseball size, not softball. Any cars in the neighborhood that weren't in a garage all have busted windshields. Mine were in garage, thankfully. Got a busted skylight, dented gutters, and the top of the pergola is trashed. Roof too, of course.




I'm just kidding man and i know you know that.
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Boy Named Sue
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In reply to ProgN • 7:20p, 4/26/23
AG
And yes, I'm told I have a very large "hand"
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ProgN
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In reply to Boy Named Sue • 7:35p, 4/26/23
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The Pilot
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In reply to Boy Named Sue • 8:09p, 4/26/23
AG
Boy Named Sue said:
Buy stock in roofing companies. My house is getting pounded with some as big as softballs
Hope this isn't your cow too.

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AgEng06
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In reply to The Pilot • 8:18p, 4/26/23
AG
The Pilot said:
Boy Named Sue said:
Buy stock in roofing companies. My house is getting pounded with some as big as softballs
Hope this isn't your cow too.

I hope you're not a veterinarian...
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FishrCoAg
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In reply to AgEng06 • 8:20p, 4/26/23
AG
AgEng06 said:
The Pilot said:
Boy Named Sue said:
Buy stock in roofing companies. My house is getting pounded with some as big as softballs
Hope this isn't your cow too.

I hope you're not a veterinarian...



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wessimo
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8:55p, 4/26/23
AG
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FJ43
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9:17p, 4/26/23
Evening Gents!

  • Ok quick chart for us degenerate traders on here…..
  • Notice clear channel break to downside
  • Notice the red arrow EMAs crossing
  • Notice the yellow arrow targets….we went to the box today that was the lower target this morning (which is also the 50EMA). New arrow is potential target and magnet IMO (200 EMA & around 400ish). Yes there is stuff at 402s but….
  • Notice the orange arrow MACD cross and momentum
  • 2 yellow boxes need to be filled IMO
  • Blue box is just a mess that needs to reconcile….redneck view anyway

Now we could get a relief bounce but I still lean to overall downside yet. If we get a move into target 2, I'll play long for a relief bounce. Otherwise cash is a position. Patience and let it come to you. Don't mind missing a trade.

Fade me though….I am just guessing.

I trimmed more VIX May calls today. May buy back some of those at some point to rinse and repeat. Also added to my June XOM Farmer special today. That trade is in honor of his knowledge and expertise. I am not worthy.



Trade Wisely!


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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9:20p, 4/26/23
Probably should add I'd like a close below the 50EMA to confirm by thoughts,
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Boy Named Sue
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In reply to The Pilot • 9:25p, 4/26/23
AG
That's exactly what it looked like at my house
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FJ43
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9:26p, 4/26/23

Hmmmm….might be LEAP time soon

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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9:30p, 4/26/23
Set some alerts maybe…..

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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9:34p, 4/26/23
May 90P may not be a bad play here….

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Aggie09Derek
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11:52p, 4/26/23
AG
https://www.marcus.com/us/en/savings/high-yield-cds/10-mcd-promo

Any of y'all hopped on this 10 month CD offer at 5.05% APY?
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Charismatic Megafauna
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5:48a, 4/27/23
AG
I should have known facebook was going to crush. Media has spent the last month pommeling us with zuck's stupid worried looking mug and articles of doom and gloom, now it's "look we cut costs and revenue is way up!" Aholes.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to Boy Named Sue • 5:53a, 4/27/23
AG
Boy Named Sue said:
Buy stock in roofing companies. My house is getting pounded with some as big as softballs

Glad you and yours are alright! Hope you get everything put back together quickly
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gougler08
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In reply to Aggie09Derek • 6:08a, 4/27/23
AG
Aggie09Derek said:
https://www.marcus.com/us/en/savings/high-yield-cds/10-mcd-promo

Any of y'all hopped on this 10 month CD offer at 5.05% APY?


Nope but Sofi savings account is up to 4.2% right now so just have my sideline cash hanging out there
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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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In reply to gougler08 • 7:13a, 4/27/23
Sponsor
AG
gougler08 said:
Aggie09Derek said:
https://www.marcus.com/us/en/savings/high-yield-cds/10-mcd-promo

Any of y'all hopped on this 10 month CD offer at 5.05% APY?


Nope but Sofi savings account is up to 4.2% right now so just have my sideline cash hanging out there


First republic is offering a 4.95% 5-month CD special. That was yesterday, wonder if they bumped it up today after the loss yeaterday
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JobSecurity
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7:57a, 4/27/23
AG
GDP growth of 1.1% in Q1 vs 2.0% expected

Core PCE up 4.9% vs 4.7% expected
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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8:01a, 4/27/23
VLO posted a monster beat. The crack spreads were telling us they would. The share price performance was telling the opposite. I guess XOM isn't the only O&G stock with a target on it's back by this Administration and their buddies. Go VLO!
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AgEng06
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8:41a, 4/27/23
AG
What's up with EGOC? Jumped up to $1.50 today. Any news?
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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8:51a, 4/27/23
XOM:CVX spread, I'm not posting the detail history, but here's the deal. If I see an intraday move to the $49's, I'm exiting my CVX. Yesterday we were within $0.30. It hit $49's this month in a Pre-Market move - very odd even for Pre-Market. Some may say the spread is too narrow at $49and should buy CVX. Normally, that would be a true statement and you would buy. However, I see CVX's basic fundamentals as poor right now and their leadership sitting on their hands. If it stays out of the $49's, I'll continue to hold.

My wish,...I'd like to see XOM divorce CVX from a spread relationship. XOM needs to go on it's own, if possible. They are to advanced to keep hitched to CVX.

XOM:PXD spread is just over $100 now. It's an okay buy. Should $95 trigger. PXD as a buy is not a bad idea.

Do your own DD.

Random scatter shots.

Later
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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8:53a, 4/27/23
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/us-navy-iran-seized-marshall-islands-flagged-oil-98901666
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oldarmy1
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9:04a, 4/27/23
AG
Feels like a lotto SPY call day. Buy any dip with $409 and $410 calls likely pay. Sell the $409's if breaks $409 and half the $410's on the flash up. Likely we test $410 if we do see squeeze breakout.
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