$1400 in 2 minutes. I'll take it

Boy Named Sue said:

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$1400 in 2 minutes. I'll take it

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That's it! I'm shorting SCHW!! :-)

I'm with this guy. Hope he's right. Except I went 21s.

$VIX $730K OTM Call

Strike: 22
Expiration: 5/17/23 pic.twitter.com/PShD9NfGJ6

— Cheddar Flow (@CheddarFlow) April 14, 2023

QQQ traded in under 10 pt range for last 9 sessions. Double inside candle on weekly and bearish harami cross candle on monthly. Something gives next week.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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South Platte said:

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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I think the PXD $5.58 div drop tomorrow will be short lived. Rather be Long, either shares or options.

Moving on,....

I figured you bought Calls regarding my XOM post. :- ))

Should see $114 for XOM next week.

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Appreciate this very much - - made almost $4/share on an XOM trade.

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You're welcome. I'm glad you made some money!

Update:
- XOM will break the $114 barrier this week and should approach, if not break, $116.
- XOM should run this week all the way to Dividend Payout on Friday March 10th.
- Maybe see $116/$117 on Monday March 13th.
- XOM "usually" runs a little after Payout Date due to the share buying taking place for drip program.
- Going forward from March 14th.....it gets real tricky here....
------ Are you long term bullish or bearish crude oil? If bullish just hold. If bearish exit your XOM positions.
------ XOM 23Q1 earnings will not beat 22Q1 earnings.
------ Then you'll have to watch what the analysts are projecting for 23Q1 earnings and see if XOM can at least beat the analysts earnings estimates.
------ Therefore, if you are bearish crude and XOM cannot beat analysts estimates for 23Q1, XOM could go through a rough patch until Driving Season starts and crude starts and crude continues an upward move at a faster pace. (Spoiler Alert: XOM 23Q2 should be glorious)

I will be holding all my XOM Long share positions. I "might" sell some late March Calls or April Calls through the dip that should be coming from late March to 23Q1 announcement. I am bullish XOM to the point of $120 before or by the end of June. $140 to $150 by the end of the year. I am bullish crude long term.

If the above is entirely wrong and XOM does not dip, it will be because of crude is just ripping upward and no one will care that XOM earnings did not beat 22Q1 and care even less that XOM did not beat analysts estimates for 23Q1.

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Didn't break the $114 barrier, didn't approach $116 or $117.

The run into Dividend Payout Date (today) not happening today. ***It works until it doesn't. I've lost track of how many quarters this was money.***

The rest of what I wrote above I am not changing.

DOE released a statement today

Quote:

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"This will be the last Congressionally mandated sale until FY26. Congress accepted a DOE proposal that canceled 140 million barrels in congressionally mandated sales that were directed to take place between FY24 FY27. This action strategically maintains volume SPR at a price of ~$74 dollars a barrel by avoiding unnecessary sales."

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^^^^This statement is admission of a major mistake....that last sentence. There are so many other words I want to use about this Administration TexAgs would ban me for life. The U.S. is in a National Security Risk event over the SPR.

The LAST SPR SALE shows Marathon and Equinor buying 16 of the 26 million barrels.

If you didn't see/read, Iran and Saudi are establishing diplomatic relationships within 60 days, a joint statement by Saudi, Iran and Chy-nah. BRIC's is getting a unified front together and NATO is focused on global warming, climate change, green energy and other nonsense. Petro Dollar in jeopardy?

If you are invested in XOM, know this, they have enough cash on-hand to be a 100% debt free company. A $400 to $450 billion market cap and pays a sustainable dividend. If you are looking for solid investment, it's really tough to beat this one - you pick your entry point.

In 5 weeks, I'm bringing back this post. Mid-March butane blending goes away and that drops gasoline supply 2% right out the gate. Driving Season is coming..

ETA below:
3/10/23 ~1:00pmCT
XOM = $107.70 / -$1.47
WTI = $76.55 / +$0.83
Brent = $82.63 / +$1.04
CVX = $158.93 / -$1.58
PXD = $199.10 / -$2.92

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Okay. It's been 5 weeks/35 days (Sunday will be 35th day)

4/14/23 Close
XOM = $116.05 / +$0.28
WTI = $82.68 / +$0.16
Brent = $86.63 / +$0.32
CVX = $172.44 / +$0.35
PXD = $230.00 / +$2.08

And driving season hasn't arrived yet. LOL!

Last 3 weeks API and EIA numbers showing draws. Should be showing builds.

Volume on 4/174 got wonky on XOM. There was a 4 million share adjustment after the Close. This is a radar alert adjustment. You have to watch the Close settling numbers (note the number at 3pm bell) and for about an hour after the Close and then check early morning for more adjustments. If XOM gets 1 or 2 more Close adjustments of 3.0 million or more, it will be following the same pattern before the mega share volume days (+25 million shares per day). There was a mass accumulation of shares on 3/15, 16, 17, 20 and 21. March 17, 20 and 21 were the key dates. The price range at that time was $99 to $107 and look where XOM is today. I'm thinking we get another mass accumulation before Memorial Day.

I bought an XOM trading position on Friday and I'll hold through Ex-Div. I'll sell after Ex-Div and buy PXD to capture their Ex-Div date. For that trading position, I'm not sure where I will leave the funds, maybe just leave in PXD. Otherwise I am long CVX, XOM and PXD and I hope you are too.

Towns03 - Your DINO position should come out okay if you hold to Memorial Day or near.

PXD to be bought by XOM? Fine with me if it happens. I do not see the acquiring company XOM having a share price drop as most acquiring companies experience after purchasing an asset. I see absolutely nothing to be bearish about in the energy sector. Nothing. (I withhold comments on NatGas) At some point XOM will get toppy and need a health restoring pullback to finish the year in a surging up note. I think the pullback comes in July after $125. Finishes the year at $135 to $140, maybe..

Going back to my hiatus. Be back when I can. Y'all make a bunch of money!


ETA: Had to change date "4/17" should have been 4/14. I apologize for any confusion.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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SKEW levels have inched up over last couple days, now within just a few points of the mid-March high when the banking stuff was at its peak.

Perhaps FJ or Prog (where has he been!!) can share with us the deeper meaning of that but methinks we are getting close to another selloff?

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I'm still here Doc, not at banned camp, but I've significantly decreased my TexAgs participation because of an incident that occurred where they've defended the indefensible imo and that's all I'm going to say on that matter. I will say that this thread is the reason why I didn't properly earn a perma. I love this community.

That said, I don't like this market right now. It's overextended imo and way over it's skis because rate hikes are over or will be if they hike one more time. Layoffs continue to increase and fuel prices are also increasing which will add increased pressure on everything we buy. We may be at the end of the fed raising cycle but a recession and geopolitical issues should not be ignored. I think the market is pricing in the fed cutting rates in the 3rd or 4th qtr but I don't think they can. I'm not diving into puts, but the market is vulnerable. I'm just over 50% in cash and my only purchase in size was $WAL at $29.50 when it dropped. I'm positioned to buy more if it drops back to that level or lower, shares not options.

China has Taiwan surrounded and could hit them anytime they want to strike. Macron (France) essentially said they wouldn't honor their obligation within NATO and support our defense should we go to war with China. If China is successful in splitting NATO then that only adds to their resolve to take Taiwan. If we had a competent President then he'd get all NATO countries to declare where they stand. If they say that's between us an China then we should pull support for Ukraine and let them protect themselves.

Tl;dr version, if China knows that is just us and not NATO and attacks Taiwan, then the markets will crater.

Hope mom is doing great and holding your baby boy fills you joy.

stop posting on f16, your quality of life and mental health will improve. seriously, it's not worth it.

You're the best! Glad you're upright!

Tom Lee has clearly not infected you.

Best Buy will layoff 'hundreds' of workers offering specialist advice


https://mol.im/a/11978479

SKEW with a couple day spike.

Low SKEW typically says calm market. High or spiking SKEW generally indicates tail risk.

So normally this would mean we are in for a bit of volatility. Big move maybe not. But some degree of downward risk.