Last time we bounced off the bottom of this channel spy rallied $6 in 24 hours
FJ43 said:
I like the shape anyway.
FJ43 said:
Easing into VIX May 21C here.
perma Brew doomster said:
selling at model T? might get there soon
FJ43 said:
Take the last 5 off. Easing brother. Easing in.
FJ43 said:perma Brew doomster said:
selling at model T? might get there soon
Yup. Assuming we try for it.
BaylorSpineGuy said:FJ43 said:
Take the last 5 off. Easing brother. Easing in.
Lol yeah, because 505 is ostentatious hahaha.
Boy Named Sue said:
$1400 in 2 minutes. I'll take it
This a pure trade or a hedge for your other positions?FJ43 said:
Easing into VIX May 21C here.
Boom! got it.FJ43 said:perma Brew doomster said:
selling at model T? might get there soon
Yup. Assuming we try for it.
FJ43 said:
Trade. I'll sell covered calls and buy puts for hedges.
just stuck a pinkie toe in...FJ43 said:
Easing into VIX May 21C here.
jimmo said:just stuck a pinkie toe in...FJ43 said:
Easing into VIX May 21C here.
holler when we take 1st target
$VIX $730K OTM Call
— Cheddar Flow (@CheddarFlow) April 14, 2023
Strike: 22
Expiration: 5/17/23 pic.twitter.com/PShD9NfGJ6
Okay. It's been 5 weeks/35 days (Sunday will be 35th day)Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Didn't break the $114 barrier, didn't approach $116 or $117.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:You're welcome. I'm glad you made some money!South Platte said:Appreciate this very much - - made almost $4/share on an XOM trade.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
I think the PXD $5.58 div drop tomorrow will be short lived. Rather be Long, either shares or options.
Moving on,....
I figured you bought Calls regarding my XOM post. :- ))
Should see $114 for XOM next week.
Update:
- XOM will break the $114 barrier this week and should approach, if not break, $116.
- XOM should run this week all the way to Dividend Payout on Friday March 10th.
- Maybe see $116/$117 on Monday March 13th.
- XOM "usually" runs a little after Payout Date due to the share buying taking place for drip program.
- Going forward from March 14th.....it gets real tricky here....
------ Are you long term bullish or bearish crude oil? If bullish just hold. If bearish exit your XOM positions.
------ XOM 23Q1 earnings will not beat 22Q1 earnings.
------ Then you'll have to watch what the analysts are projecting for 23Q1 earnings and see if XOM can at least beat the analysts earnings estimates.
------ Therefore, if you are bearish crude and XOM cannot beat analysts estimates for 23Q1, XOM could go through a rough patch until Driving Season starts and crude starts and crude continues an upward move at a faster pace. (Spoiler Alert: XOM 23Q2 should be glorious)
I will be holding all my XOM Long share positions. I "might" sell some late March Calls or April Calls through the dip that should be coming from late March to 23Q1 announcement. I am bullish XOM to the point of $120 before or by the end of June. $140 to $150 by the end of the year. I am bullish crude long term.
If the above is entirely wrong and XOM does not dip, it will be because of crude is just ripping upward and no one will care that XOM earnings did not beat 22Q1 and care even less that XOM did not beat analysts estimates for 23Q1.
The run into Dividend Payout Date (today) not happening today. ***It works until it doesn't. I've lost track of how many quarters this was money.***
The rest of what I wrote above I am not changing.
DOE released a statement today^^^^This statement is admission of a major mistake....that last sentence. There are so many other words I want to use about this Administration TexAgs would ban me for life. The U.S. is in a National Security Risk event over the SPR.Quote:
"This will be the last Congressionally mandated sale until FY26. Congress accepted a DOE proposal that canceled 140 million barrels in congressionally mandated sales that were directed to take place between FY24 FY27. This action strategically maintains volume SPR at a price of ~$74 dollars a barrel by avoiding unnecessary sales."
The LAST SPR SALE shows Marathon and Equinor buying 16 of the 26 million barrels.
If you didn't see/read, Iran and Saudi are establishing diplomatic relationships within 60 days, a joint statement by Saudi, Iran and Chy-nah. BRIC's is getting a unified front together and NATO is focused on global warming, climate change, green energy and other nonsense. Petro Dollar in jeopardy?
If you are invested in XOM, know this, they have enough cash on-hand to be a 100% debt free company. A $400 to $450 billion market cap and pays a sustainable dividend. If you are looking for solid investment, it's really tough to beat this one - you pick your entry point.
In 5 weeks, I'm bringing back this post. Mid-March butane blending goes away and that drops gasoline supply 2% right out the gate. Driving Season is coming..
ETA below:
3/10/23 ~1:00pmCT
XOM = $107.70 / -$1.47
WTI = $76.55 / +$0.83
Brent = $82.63 / +$1.04
CVX = $158.93 / -$1.58
PXD = $199.10 / -$2.92
I'm still here Doc, not at banned camp, but I've significantly decreased my TexAgs participation because of an incident that occurred where they've defended the indefensible imo and that's all I'm going to say on that matter. I will say that this thread is the reason why I didn't properly earn a perma. I love this community.BaylorSpineGuy said:
SKEW levels have inched up over last couple days, now within just a few points of the mid-March high when the banking stuff was at its peak.
Perhaps FJ or Prog (where has he been!!) can share with us the deeper meaning of that but methinks we are getting close to another selloff?