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lobwedgephil
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

I don't know man, Nazeem seems pretty knowledgeable
ProgN
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Premium said:

ProgN said:

lobwedgephil said:

Prog, this is Fintwit fear. Fed meeting is normal, regularly scheduled board meeting. Every time we have major selling, twitter goes crazy on this "emergency" meeting. Fake news,
Thanks, I'm not allowed on Twitter anymore so I can't follow different accounts and keep up.
m
You can't figure out how to see what's happening on Twitter
It requires too much time because you can't follow posters and have to g the their pages individually, so not woth if.
Premium
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AG
ProgN said:

Premium said:

ProgN said:

lobwedgephil said:

Prog, this is Fintwit fear. Fed meeting is normal, regularly scheduled board meeting. Every time we have major selling, twitter goes crazy on this "emergency" meeting. Fake news,
Thanks, I'm not allowed on Twitter anymore so I can't follow different accounts and keep up.
m
You can't figure out how to see what's happening on Twitter
It requires too much time because you can't follow posters and have to g the their pages individually, so not woth if.


They have a new notifications icon that let you see new post by poster whenever they happen. Last day or two addition so FYI
Brewmaster
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Bonfire1996 said:

SF2004 said:

Bonfire1996 said:

SF2004 said:

Bonfire1996 said:

Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.
What is your prediction on final FED target?

I think we get to 5.75% and hold for a while for some pain. Then Daddy Pow wants to trail off back to 3.50% for a good long while. Rates aren't going back to 0.

I think he thought he could bagdad bob this inflation and failed.
Rates are going to zero and below. It's a certainty.

If JPow goes to 5.75% unrealized losses might hit 75% of banks equity. That can't happen for long.

This is the biggest, longest term bluff in financial market history.
Rates can't go back to 0. Inflation would go through the roof.
Inflation is not the driver here. The driver here is two things that are way more important to central bankers than inflation:

1. The US Govt cannot afford to re-price its debt at 3.5-5%, period. This is a mathematical certainty. It's why BofA said rates go to zero soon because it's the FED bailout of the US Gov.

2. Bank balance sheets are heavily invested in bonds. Over years of low interest rate policy and high liquidity, banks needed investments for their liquidity. They couldn't find enough borrowers for all their liquidity printed by the FED. So they bought bonds. Bonds that were low interest instruments tied to corporate debt. This bonds are priced on the market because they are rarely held to maturity and are likely to be sold to replace needed liquidity.

As the FED raised rates, those trillions of dollars in bonds have lost value on the open market. You can't sell 2% interest earning bonds today unless you sell at a discount because anyone can buy 4.5% short term treasuries.

The FED cannot allow those losses on banks balance sheets to be realized. It would crash the entire monetary system across the globe. Banks losing 50% of their equity would cause immediate global war, famine, and death. That isn't hyperbolic.

Those 2 things are way more important than inflation. We are Japan, just 15 years behind.
Your last sentence got my attention. The "forgotten years" started in 1990 with a Nikkei crash. Are you saying we are headed to a decade or more of zero returns in equities?

By 2021, the Nikkei was still lower than it was in 1990! (even though it had been rebounding for almost a decade).
ProgN
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Cool, I check it out this weekend.
Bonfire1996
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perma Brew doomster said:

Bonfire1996 said:

SF2004 said:

Bonfire1996 said:

SF2004 said:

Bonfire1996 said:

Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.
What is your prediction on final FED target?

I think we get to 5.75% and hold for a while for some pain. Then Daddy Pow wants to trail off back to 3.50% for a good long while. Rates aren't going back to 0.

I think he thought he could bagdad bob this inflation and failed.
Rates are going to zero and below. It's a certainty.

If JPow goes to 5.75% unrealized losses might hit 75% of banks equity. That can't happen for long.

This is the biggest, longest term bluff in financial market history.
Rates can't go back to 0. Inflation would go through the roof.
Inflation is not the driver here. The driver here is two things that are way more important to central bankers than inflation:

1. The US Govt cannot afford to re-price its debt at 3.5-5%, period. This is a mathematical certainty. It's why BofA said rates go to zero soon because it's the FED bailout of the US Gov.

2. Bank balance sheets are heavily invested in bonds. Over years of low interest rate policy and high liquidity, banks needed investments for their liquidity. They couldn't find enough borrowers for all their liquidity printed by the FED. So they bought bonds. Bonds that were low interest instruments tied to corporate debt. This bonds are priced on the market because they are rarely held to maturity and are likely to be sold to replace needed liquidity.

As the FED raised rates, those trillions of dollars in bonds have lost value on the open market. You can't sell 2% interest earning bonds today unless you sell at a discount because anyone can buy 4.5% short term treasuries.

The FED cannot allow those losses on banks balance sheets to be realized. It would crash the entire monetary system across the globe. Banks losing 50% of their equity would cause immediate global war, famine, and death. That isn't hyperbolic.

Those 2 things are way more important than inflation. We are Japan, just 15 years behind.
Your last sentence got my attention. The "forgotten years" started in 1990 with a Nikkei crash. Are you saying we are headed to a decade or more of zero returns in equities?

By 2021, the Nikkei was still lower than it was in 1990! (even though it had been rebounding for almost a decade).

I mean in monetary policy. 0 to negative rates.

I disagree with Heineken in that the FED will reverse course to protect the currency they deal in, the US dollar. They don't have to, but they will to protect the full faith and credit of the United States.
FJ43
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Ok not stock related but thought this group could use a laugh to start your weekend.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
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And another one for you. But….stock related

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
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Quick chart (close but not exact SRs) while I wait to go into my barber.

Zones I am targeting to downside in weeks ahead.

Notice the volume Friday.

Of course trade what's in front of you.




Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

BaylorSpineGuy
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Is that capitulation level volume?
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
I was being facetious. I even used a smiley emoji!
FJ43
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

Is that capitulation level volume?


Partially (some stocks yes) but sustained and more volume is really needed on macros. Look left as examples. Could be the initial but I wouldn't consider it just yet.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Slappy007
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AG
Premium said:

Premium said:

Premium said:

Philip J Fry said:

Premium said:

txaggieacct85 said:

Premium said:

Wayfair looking like a good pickup, anyone else agree?
no


Okay, now that we've had fun. Any serious commentary one way or the other?

I think most people think Amazon for online furniture but if you're looking for better quality you end up at Wayfair (online shoppers).

As for the stock, I'm curious at $52 since it recently shore up from high 40's to mid 70's and now back to 52.


I'd wait until it's back in the 30s

Good call so far ($49.06 today), I think if it goes another $6 lower it's worth getting to hold long.
May have been talked about already today, but Wayfair (W)!... Down 23% to $38 - is this a buy? What happened - why did this run up to $70 and then get cut in half?
Wayfair down another 8% to $33, looking like an attractive entry or is it going to ride down the rest of the year with the entire stock market?


Wayfair is an unprofitable company that will be out of cash in less than a year. Monetary conditions aren't getting better anything soon. There are much better companies to look into imo.
FJ43
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New Shooting Star on SKEW gents. Overlay of SPX for your enjoyment with some of the prior Shooting Stars vs the Index.

SKEW = dots
Yellow arrows = Shooting Stars
SPX = orange
Yellow Trend Lines = ballpark channel

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

BaylorSpineGuy
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FJ43 said:


New Shooting Star on SKEW gents. Overlay of SPX for your enjoyment with some of the prior Shooting Stars vs the Index.

SKEW = dots
Yellow arrows = Shooting Stars
SPX = orange
Yellow Trend Lines = ballpark channel




Are you suggesting a rally? I can't determine based on this chart. Sorry.
FJ43
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

FJ43 said:


New Shooting Star on SKEW gents. Overlay of SPX for your enjoyment with some of the prior Shooting Stars vs the Index.

SKEW = dots
Yellow arrows = Shooting Stars
SPX = orange
Yellow Trend Lines = ballpark channel




Are you suggesting a rally? I can't determine based on this chart. Sorry.

Typically shooting stars on SKEW are followed by market declines in the following weeks. The chart I posted shows with each shooting star, SPX declined following.

Different degrees of decline. Usually some chop in between.

Interestingly though we had a decent drop preceding it this round.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
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Each yellow arrow points to a single print of SKEW well above the clusters below it.

See the SPX trend following the arrows.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

BaylorSpineGuy
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Thanks!
ProgN
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How you doing Kemosahbee? How's the project going and when do you expect it to end?
ProgN
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We have a lot of professionals on this thread so please read this OP and you can reply here if you like because F16 does cause cancer. I'm genuinely curious to know how this is legal in any state.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3366883
FJ43
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ProgN said:

How you doing Kemosahbee? How's the project going and when do you expect it to end?
Doing great Amigo thanks for asking. Project is going well and on track. I extended the timeline a few months ago but the juice (more equity) for me to do that was worth the squeeze (about 12 months). We are looking at another acquisition now (in 23') then maximize the combined footprint during 24'. 25' exit but of course depends on velocity and valuation at that point.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

ProgN
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Nice, we all wish the best for you and your family. When the project ends, let me know when you're in Texas.
Boy Named Sue
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AG
ProgN said:

We have a lot of professionals on this thread so please read this OP and you can reply here if you like because F16 does cause cancer. I'm genuinely curious to know how this is legal in any state.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3366883



Public policy in every state. Adverse possession is very commonly utilized. I'm litigating two cases on it right now. It's actually a statute of limitations on a trespass claim, and the time period differs based on various factors (like who paid property taxes, if there's arguably a deed, etc.). Think of it in the context of a property boundary, where the fence isn't on the line. Eventually, after you've mowed and maintained the land on your side for 25 years, shouldn't you own it?

There are a lot of other examples I can list that you'd probably agree with
ProgN
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Thanks, I'm just shocked anything like this is actually legal. I'm not an attorney, but I'm well read and I never even considered something like this existed. We learn something new everyday. Thank you for the reply.
Boy Named Sue
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AG
ProgN said:

Thanks, I'm just shocked anything like this is actually legal. I'm not an attorney, but I'm well read and I never even considered something like this existed. We learn something new everyday. Thank you for the reply.


It's mainly used to clean up record title, so the property can be borrowed against or something like that, when everyone has already been under the impression that the current user/occupier owned it. I have one case right now with about 100 defendants, centered on interpreting a deed from 1929. None of the defendants who have been served are even going to fight it, and there are only a handful left to serve, if that tells you anything.
ProgN
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My family has had a cabin on the Colorado River outside of Lampasas for over 40 years but I only use it about 4-5 times a year. My neighbor that lives there asked if his wife can have part of her garden partially on my land. I of course said no problem, but now I'm reconsidering that courtesy.

Thank you for replying.
deadbq03
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AG
Maybe draft a formal easement to allow rights for a limited term?

I'm curious how hard and expensive it would be to get something like this filed. I actually want it for the opposite… lots on my street are weird and small and the developer made the choice to basically push houses right next to one side of the lot to give extra space on the other. As such, everyone has de facto occupied the 2-3 ft of property that their neighbor owns on their short side. My neighbor is cool and doesn't mind my choices at all (and if I'm honest, he really could have legit beefs with me)… but he's over 80. I feel like any year he could sell to go to a retirement home or god-forbid he could just pass away… and I'd be screwed if the next owner hates me and wants to enforce property boundaries. So I'm considering asking him to sign an easement in perpetuity… like utilities do, so future owners are bound to his decision.

ProgN
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I'm going to look into that, thank you.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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ProgN said:

We have a lot of professionals on this thread so please read this OP and you can reply here if you like because F16 does cause cancer. I'm genuinely curious to know how this is legal in any state.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3366883

In the 70's, I was told it was 10 years in TX (claiming squatters rights), i.e. after taking care of someone's property, mowing, using, up-keeping, etc. Stuff has changed since the 70's. That's all I got..
Boy Named Sue
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ProgN said:

My family has had a cabin on the Colorado River outside of Lampasas for over 40 years but I only use it about 4-5 times a year. My neighbor that lives there asked if his wife can have part of her garden partially on my land. I of course said no problem, but now I'm reconsidering that courtesy.

Thank you for replying.


Since you gave her permission, they probably* can't claim adverse possession. PM me if you need advice on anything specific.

*probably is used here because I don't know all the facts, as a cya
ProgN
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Thank you sir
ProgN
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Troy91
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

ProgN said:

We have a lot of professionals on this thread so please read this OP and you can reply here if you like because F16 does cause cancer. I'm genuinely curious to know how this is legal in any state.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3366883

In the 70's, I was told it was 10 years in TX (claiming squatters rights), i.e. after taking care of someone's property, mowing, using, up-keeping, etc. Stuff has changed since the 70's. That's all I got..
Texas has a series of different time frames under different fact patterns. Here is a high level overview: https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/who-can-claim-property-based-adverse-possession-texas.html


Having tried a few of these cases, the evidence is hard to develop and verbal agreements tend to be remembered differently once litigation begins.
tremble
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AG
Reading his Twitter and this guy should probably be in jail. Providing no sources and likely fomenting a panic on a bank that is pretty dissimilar from SVB.
Ragoo
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AG
ProgN said:

My family has had a cabin on the Colorado River outside of Lampasas for over 40 years but I only use it about 4-5 times a year. My neighbor that lives there asked if his wife can have part of her garden partially on my land. I of course said no problem, but now I'm reconsidering that courtesy.

Thank you for replying.
draft a lease for something inane like $1 per year.
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