Charismatic Megafauna said:

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I don't know man, Nazeem seems pretty knowledgeable

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Premium said:

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ProgN said:

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lobwedgephil said:

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Prog, this is Fintwit fear. Fed meeting is normal, regularly scheduled board meeting. Every time we have major selling, twitter goes crazy on this "emergency" meeting. Fake news,

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Thanks, I'm not allowed on Twitter anymore so I can't follow different accounts and keep up.

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m
You can't figure out how to see what's happening on Twitter

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ProgN said:

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Premium said:

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ProgN said:

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lobwedgephil said:

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Prog, this is Fintwit fear. Fed meeting is normal, regularly scheduled board meeting. Every time we have major selling, twitter goes crazy on this "emergency" meeting. Fake news,

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Thanks, I'm not allowed on Twitter anymore so I can't follow different accounts and keep up.

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m
You can't figure out how to see what's happening on Twitter

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It requires too much time because you can't follow posters and have to g the their pages individually, so not woth if.

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Bonfire1996 said:

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SF2004 said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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SF2004 said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.

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What is your prediction on final FED target?

I think we get to 5.75% and hold for a while for some pain. Then Daddy Pow wants to trail off back to 3.50% for a good long while. Rates aren't going back to 0.

I think he thought he could bagdad bob this inflation and failed.

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Rates are going to zero and below. It's a certainty.

If JPow goes to 5.75% unrealized losses might hit 75% of banks equity. That can't happen for long.

This is the biggest, longest term bluff in financial market history.

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Rates can't go back to 0. Inflation would go through the roof.

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Inflation is not the driver here. The driver here is two things that are way more important to central bankers than inflation:

1. The US Govt cannot afford to re-price its debt at 3.5-5%, period. This is a mathematical certainty. It's why BofA said rates go to zero soon because it's the FED bailout of the US Gov.

2. Bank balance sheets are heavily invested in bonds. Over years of low interest rate policy and high liquidity, banks needed investments for their liquidity. They couldn't find enough borrowers for all their liquidity printed by the FED. So they bought bonds. Bonds that were low interest instruments tied to corporate debt. This bonds are priced on the market because they are rarely held to maturity and are likely to be sold to replace needed liquidity.

As the FED raised rates, those trillions of dollars in bonds have lost value on the open market. You can't sell 2% interest earning bonds today unless you sell at a discount because anyone can buy 4.5% short term treasuries.

The FED cannot allow those losses on banks balance sheets to be realized. It would crash the entire monetary system across the globe. Banks losing 50% of their equity would cause immediate global war, famine, and death. That isn't hyperbolic.

Those 2 things are way more important than inflation. We are Japan, just 15 years behind.

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perma Brew doomster said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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SF2004 said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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SF2004 said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.

---

What is your prediction on final FED target?

I think we get to 5.75% and hold for a while for some pain. Then Daddy Pow wants to trail off back to 3.50% for a good long while. Rates aren't going back to 0.

I think he thought he could bagdad bob this inflation and failed.

---

Rates are going to zero and below. It's a certainty.

If JPow goes to 5.75% unrealized losses might hit 75% of banks equity. That can't happen for long.

This is the biggest, longest term bluff in financial market history.

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Rates can't go back to 0. Inflation would go through the roof.

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Inflation is not the driver here. The driver here is two things that are way more important to central bankers than inflation:

1. The US Govt cannot afford to re-price its debt at 3.5-5%, period. This is a mathematical certainty. It's why BofA said rates go to zero soon because it's the FED bailout of the US Gov.

2. Bank balance sheets are heavily invested in bonds. Over years of low interest rate policy and high liquidity, banks needed investments for their liquidity. They couldn't find enough borrowers for all their liquidity printed by the FED. So they bought bonds. Bonds that were low interest instruments tied to corporate debt. This bonds are priced on the market because they are rarely held to maturity and are likely to be sold to replace needed liquidity.

As the FED raised rates, those trillions of dollars in bonds have lost value on the open market. You can't sell 2% interest earning bonds today unless you sell at a discount because anyone can buy 4.5% short term treasuries.

The FED cannot allow those losses on banks balance sheets to be realized. It would crash the entire monetary system across the globe. Banks losing 50% of their equity would cause immediate global war, famine, and death. That isn't hyperbolic.

Those 2 things are way more important than inflation. We are Japan, just 15 years behind.

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Your last sentence got my attention. The "forgotten years" started in 1990 with a Nikkei crash. Are you saying we are headed to a decade or more of zero returns in equities?

By 2021, the Nikkei was still lower than it was in 1990! (even though it had been rebounding for almost a decade).

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BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Is that capitulation level volume?

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Premium said:

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Premium said:

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Premium said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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Premium said:

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txaggieacct85 said:

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Premium said:

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Wayfair looking like a good pickup, anyone else agree?

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no

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Okay, now that we've had fun. Any serious commentary one way or the other?

I think most people think Amazon for online furniture but if you're looking for better quality you end up at Wayfair (online shoppers).

As for the stock, I'm curious at $52 since it recently shore up from high 40's to mid 70's and now back to 52.

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I'd wait until it's back in the 30s

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Good call so far ($49.06 today), I think if it goes another $6 lower it's worth getting to hold long.

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May have been talked about already today, but Wayfair (W)!... Down 23% to $38 - is this a buy? What happened - why did this run up to $70 and then get cut in half?

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Wayfair down another 8% to $33, looking like an attractive entry or is it going to ride down the rest of the year with the entire stock market?

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FJ43 said:

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New Shooting Star on SKEW gents. Overlay of SPX for your enjoyment with some of the prior Shooting Stars vs the Index.

SKEW = dots
Yellow arrows = Shooting Stars
SPX = orange
Yellow Trend Lines = ballpark channel

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BaylorSpineGuy said:

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FJ43 said:

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New Shooting Star on SKEW gents. Overlay of SPX for your enjoyment with some of the prior Shooting Stars vs the Index.

SKEW = dots
Yellow arrows = Shooting Stars
SPX = orange
Yellow Trend Lines = ballpark channel

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Are you suggesting a rally? I can't determine based on this chart. Sorry.

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ProgN said:

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How you doing Kemosahbee? How's the project going and when do you expect it to end?

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ProgN said:

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Thanks, I'm just shocked anything like this is actually legal. I'm not an attorney, but I'm well read and I never even considered something like this existed. We learn something new everyday. Thank you for the reply.

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ProgN said:

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We have a lot of professionals on this thread so please read this OP and you can reply here if you like because F16 does cause cancer. I'm genuinely curious to know how this is legal in any state.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3366883

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ProgN said:

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My family has had a cabin on the Colorado River outside of Lampasas for over 40 years but I only use it about 4-5 times a year. My neighbor that lives there asked if his wife can have part of her garden partially on my land. I of course said no problem, but now I'm reconsidering that courtesy.

Thank you for replying.

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BREAKING: The FDIC is already on site at First Republic Bank trying to determine the best path forward to protect depositors. Things are moving way faster than expected given the accelerating bank run that has already reached a tipping point.

— Mike Alfred (@mikealfred) March 12, 2023

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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ProgN said:

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We have a lot of professionals on this thread so please read this OP and you can reply here if you like because F16 does cause cancer. I'm genuinely curious to know how this is legal in any state.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3366883

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In the 70's, I was told it was 10 years in TX (claiming squatters rights), i.e. after taking care of someone's property, mowing, using, up-keeping, etc. Stuff has changed since the 70's. That's all I got..

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