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24,626,468 Views | 233261 Replies | Last: 8 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
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Boy Named Sue
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Bonfire1996
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While we are watching the SVB drama, bond yields are giving the biggest middle finger of the last decade to JPow.

2 year is down 0.4% since JPow said we are going up, faster and more than expected.
EngrAg14
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AXP on edge of a big gap down
Ag CPA
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Probably flight to safety stemming from the banking mess more than anything.
bmks270
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I think the amount of deposits removed from SVB yesterday and today are going to shock people. Based on comments from the web it sounds like every depositor tried to move money out yesterday, which is continuing today for those who were too late yesterday.




Heineken-Ashi
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WWR today

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
EngrAg14
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Also can see a inverse cup (3/2 ~ 3/9) and handle forming on SPY if we rebound upwards today and Monday for a departure down to 380 by end of next week.
Carlo4
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Last summer, my dad had a 5 figure long position on this stock. I was able to get him out of it only because of an illness where I took temp control. I think he took a 5% loss but...

He would have lost everything.
SF2004
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You guys do realize the situation at SBV is mirror all through banking right?

There is a reason some banks are paying stupid interested while the larger money center and better regional banks are not.

There is still more to come from banks that took risks thinking rates would never go back up again.
Charismatic Megafauna
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I bet i know who is still short

SF2004
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

I bet i know who is still short


Nor should we protect large depositors who chased unrealistic yield and placed their funds with a bad bank.
Whitehouse Road
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DNN buy zone
FTAG 2000
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SF2004 said:

You guys do realize the situation at SBV is mirror all through banking right?

There is a reason some banks are paying stupid interested while the larger money center and better regional banks are not.

There is still more to come from banks that took risks thinking rates would never go back up again.
So what's the play? Longer dated XLF puts? Something else?
deadbq03
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My defensive GLD and TLT leaps are soaring. When both move together like this, it's bad news for equities.
Bonfire1996
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Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.
SF2004
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deadbq03 said:

My defensive GLD and TLT leaps are soaring. When both move together like this, it's bad news for equities.
The fact that the market rallied like it did the first two months of the year is one of the biggest manipulation events by the market makers. Retail had sniffed this out and positioned accordingly. So they propped up the market until those PUTs burned.

Market has been trash since Potato head wrote more checks coming into office and then tried to blame "Putins Price Increase".

Shutting down and pumping money into the system only had one result.

Made good money selling the volatility events tho.
SF2004
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Bonfire1996 said:

Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.
What is your prediction on final FED target?

I think we get to 5.75% and hold for a while for some pain. Then Daddy Pow wants to trail off back to 3.50% for a good long while. Rates aren't going back to 0.

I think he thought he could bagdad bob this inflation and failed.
Bonfire1996
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SF2004 said:

Bonfire1996 said:

Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.
What is your prediction on final FED target?

I think we get to 5.75% and hold for a while for some pain. Then Daddy Pow wants to trail off back to 3.50% for a good long while. Rates aren't going back to 0.

I think he thought he could bagdad bob this inflation and failed.
Rates are going to zero and below. It's a certainty.

If JPow goes to 5.75% unrealized losses might hit 75% of banks equity. That can't happen for long.

This is the biggest, longest term bluff in financial market history.
SF2004
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Bonfire1996 said:

SF2004 said:

Bonfire1996 said:

Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.
What is your prediction on final FED target?

I think we get to 5.75% and hold for a while for some pain. Then Daddy Pow wants to trail off back to 3.50% for a good long while. Rates aren't going back to 0.

I think he thought he could bagdad bob this inflation and failed.
Rates are going to zero and below. It's a certainty.

If JPow goes to 5.75% unrealized losses might hit 75% of banks equity. That can't happen for long.

This is the biggest, longest term bluff in financial market history.
Rates can't go back to 0. Inflation would go through the roof.
Brewmaster
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Wow, thanks for posting! your knowledge drop is always appreciated here
oldarmy1
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Heineken-Ashi said:

WWR today


Hope everyone heeded the post to enter covered calls on the spikes above $1.35,,,,or to have sold buys under $1 there.

It's all about production. Until then we'll get these pops on news. Take advantage of them.
Carioca Corredor
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Bonfire1996 said:




This is the biggest, longest term bluff in financial market history.
Then what's the winning plays? Short bank stocks, buy T or Muni bonds with a 2 year duration or start trading the US dollar ??
Boy Named Sue
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I'm paralyzed by SPY. Bought puts early, then calls to hedge, and like an idiot I'm trapped in purgatory. Need a breakout, either way, before decay eats me alive
oldarmy1
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Boy Named Sue said:

I'm paralyzed by SPY. Bought puts early, then calls to hedge, and like an idiot I'm trapped in purgatory. Need a breakout, either way, before decay eats me alive
3880 breaks and puts rule. Markets seeking direction right now just above and if we break to the upside above 3920 its game on for bulls until handwringing over CPI begins.
Brewmaster
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Volume seems to favor your call side at the moment, and on top of it, we're oversold
Boy Named Sue
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Thanks y'all. Rookie mistake, and probably the most expensive one I've made so far. We'll see what happens as the day goes on
$30,000 Millionaire
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Made some scalping. Hard session.
$30,000 Millionaire
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NQ scalping has been pretty easy today.


oldarmy1
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Best trade I had today was a reach 3940 ES call that was at $17 just before NFP. I tossed a bid at $9.25 and it filled on the reaction drop and then caught the initial wave for $19.25 exit fills. Those are now at $6.25, so not for the faint of heart but what gains!
oldarmy1
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oldarmy1 said:

Best trade I had today was a reach 3940 ES call that was at $17 just before NFP. I tossed a bid at $9.25 and it filled on the reaction drop and then caught the initial wave for $19.25 exit fills. Those are now at $6.25, so not for the faint of heart but what gains!
Maybe a I should have rebought them. $9.75 now
$30,000 Millionaire
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oldarmy1 said:

oldarmy1 said:

Best trade I had today was a reach 3940 ES call that was at $17 just before NFP. I tossed a bid at $9.25 and it filled on the reaction drop and then caught the initial wave for $19.25 exit fills. Those are now at $6.25, so not for the faint of heart but what gains!
Maybe a I should have rebought them. $9.75 now


I had 3920s that I bought at 5 and and sold at 6. Doh
ProgN
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

I bet i know who is still short


Silicon Valley Bank is shut down by regulators, FDIC to protect insured deposits (cnbc.com)
$30,000 Millionaire
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T&P for the dip buyers.
SoTXAg09
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