.@davidfaber just came back on air and said attempts to sell SVB are running into a problem: All the deposits are fleeing the bank. Market should prepare that there won't be a sale. https://t.co/7hJ91C7Em3
— Jay Yarow (@jyarow) March 10, 2023
To be clear, a bailout should be designed to protect @SVB_Financial depositors, not equity holders or management. We should not reward poor risk management or protect shareholders from risks they knowingly assumed.
— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) March 10, 2023
Nor should we protect large depositors who chased unrealistic yield and placed their funds with a bad bank.Charismatic Megafauna said:
I bet i know who is still shortTo be clear, a bailout should be designed to protect @SVB_Financial depositors, not equity holders or management. We should not reward poor risk management or protect shareholders from risks they knowingly assumed.
— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) March 10, 2023
So what's the play? Longer dated XLF puts? Something else?SF2004 said:
You guys do realize the situation at SBV is mirror all through banking right?
There is a reason some banks are paying stupid interested while the larger money center and better regional banks are not.
There is still more to come from banks that took risks thinking rates would never go back up again.
The fact that the market rallied like it did the first two months of the year is one of the biggest manipulation events by the market makers. Retail had sniffed this out and positioned accordingly. So they propped up the market until those PUTs burned.deadbq03 said:
My defensive GLD and TLT leaps are soaring. When both move together like this, it's bad news for equities.
What is your prediction on final FED target?Bonfire1996 said:
Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.
Rates are going to zero and below. It's a certainty.SF2004 said:What is your prediction on final FED target?Bonfire1996 said:
Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.
I think we get to 5.75% and hold for a while for some pain. Then Daddy Pow wants to trail off back to 3.50% for a good long while. Rates aren't going back to 0.
I think he thought he could bagdad bob this inflation and failed.
Rates can't go back to 0. Inflation would go through the roof.Bonfire1996 said:Rates are going to zero and below. It's a certainty.SF2004 said:What is your prediction on final FED target?Bonfire1996 said:
Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.
I think we get to 5.75% and hold for a while for some pain. Then Daddy Pow wants to trail off back to 3.50% for a good long while. Rates aren't going back to 0.
I think he thought he could bagdad bob this inflation and failed.
If JPow goes to 5.75% unrealized losses might hit 75% of banks equity. That can't happen for long.
This is the biggest, longest term bluff in financial market history.
Hope everyone heeded the post to enter covered calls on the spikes above $1.35,,,,or to have sold buys under $1 there.Heineken-Ashi said:
WWR today
Then what's the winning plays? Short bank stocks, buy T or Muni bonds with a 2 year duration or start trading the US dollar ??Bonfire1996 said:
This is the biggest, longest term bluff in financial market history.
3880 breaks and puts rule. Markets seeking direction right now just above and if we break to the upside above 3920 its game on for bulls until handwringing over CPI begins.Boy Named Sue said:
I'm paralyzed by SPY. Bought puts early, then calls to hedge, and like an idiot I'm trapped in purgatory. Need a breakout, either way, before decay eats me alive
Maybe a I should have rebought them. $9.75 nowoldarmy1 said:
Best trade I had today was a reach 3940 ES call that was at $17 just before NFP. I tossed a bid at $9.25 and it filled on the reaction drop and then caught the initial wave for $19.25 exit fills. Those are now at $6.25, so not for the faint of heart but what gains!
oldarmy1 said:Maybe a I should have rebought them. $9.75 nowoldarmy1 said:
Best trade I had today was a reach 3940 ES call that was at $17 just before NFP. I tossed a bid at $9.25 and it filled on the reaction drop and then caught the initial wave for $19.25 exit fills. Those are now at $6.25, so not for the faint of heart but what gains!
Silicon Valley Bank is shut down by regulators, FDIC to protect insured deposits (cnbc.com)Charismatic Megafauna said:
I bet i know who is still shortTo be clear, a bailout should be designed to protect @SVB_Financial depositors, not equity holders or management. We should not reward poor risk management or protect shareholders from risks they knowingly assumed.
— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) March 10, 2023