While we are watching the SVB drama, bond yields are giving the biggest middle finger of the last decade to JPow.

2 year is down 0.4% since JPow said we are going up, faster and more than expected.

WWR today

Last summer, my dad had a 5 figure long position on this stock. I was able to get him out of it only because of an illness where I took temp control. I think he took a 5% loss but...

He would have lost everything.

DNN buy zone

Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.

deadbq03 said:

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My defensive GLD and TLT leaps are soaring. When both move together like this, it's bad news for equities.

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The fact that the market rallied like it did the first two months of the year is one of the biggest manipulation events by the market makers. Retail had sniffed this out and positioned accordingly. So they propped up the market until those PUTs burned.

Market has been trash since Potato head wrote more checks coming into office and then tried to blame "Putins Price Increase".

Shutting down and pumping money into the system only had one result.

Made good money selling the volatility events tho.

Bonfire1996 said:

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Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.

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What is your prediction on final FED target?

I think we get to 5.75% and hold for a while for some pain. Then Daddy Pow wants to trail off back to 3.50% for a good long while. Rates aren't going back to 0.

I think he thought he could bagdad bob this inflation and failed.

SF2004 said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.

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What is your prediction on final FED target?

I think we get to 5.75% and hold for a while for some pain. Then Daddy Pow wants to trail off back to 3.50% for a good long while. Rates aren't going back to 0.

I think he thought he could bagdad bob this inflation and failed.

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Rates are going to zero and below. It's a certainty.

If JPow goes to 5.75% unrealized losses might hit 75% of banks equity. That can't happen for long.

This is the biggest, longest term bluff in financial market history.

Bonfire1996 said:

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SF2004 said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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Another fight against J Pow. Have you guys investigated how much in unrealized losses in bond portfolios exist on big banks balance sheets? Between 40-50% of their equity, on average, is currently gone from unrealized losses. Only way to get those unrealized losses back to flat is for rates to drop.

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What is your prediction on final FED target?

I think we get to 5.75% and hold for a while for some pain. Then Daddy Pow wants to trail off back to 3.50% for a good long while. Rates aren't going back to 0.

I think he thought he could bagdad bob this inflation and failed.

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Rates are going to zero and below. It's a certainty.

If JPow goes to 5.75% unrealized losses might hit 75% of banks equity. That can't happen for long.

This is the biggest, longest term bluff in financial market history.

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Rates can't go back to 0. Inflation would go through the roof.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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WWR today

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Hope everyone heeded the post to enter covered calls on the spikes above $1.35,,,,or to have sold buys under $1 there.

It's all about production. Until then we'll get these pops on news. Take advantage of them.

I'm paralyzed by SPY. Bought puts early, then calls to hedge, and like an idiot I'm trapped in purgatory. Need a breakout, either way, before decay eats me alive

Boy Named Sue said:

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I'm paralyzed by SPY. Bought puts early, then calls to hedge, and like an idiot I'm trapped in purgatory. Need a breakout, either way, before decay eats me alive

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3880 breaks and puts rule. Markets seeking direction right now just above and if we break to the upside above 3920 its game on for bulls until handwringing over CPI begins.

Best trade I had today was a reach 3940 ES call that was at $17 just before NFP. I tossed a bid at $9.25 and it filled on the reaction drop and then caught the initial wave for $19.25 exit fills. Those are now at $6.25, so not for the faint of heart but what gains!

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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I bet i know who is still short

To be clear, a bailout should be designed to protect @SVB_Financial depositors, not equity holders or management. We should not reward poor risk management or protect shareholders from risks they knowingly assumed.

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) March 10, 2023

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Silicon Valley Bank is shut down by regulators, FDIC to protect insured deposits (cnbc.com)

T&P for the dip buyers.