OA, I assume you have to cut at some point if the stock keeps trending down, correct? How do you deal with the theta decay between the March puts and April covered calls as you get close to the March put expiration?oldarmy1 said:oldarmy1 said:Let me tweet another approach I use in bear markets and paste it here.ryanhnc10 said:
Thanks for the reply, makes sense$JD....Bear market keep it tight and secure trade. Buy 1000 shares. Enter FIVE Apr 21 $40 covered calls for $3.55. Net on the 5 CC's would be $43.55, if called out. Buy 10 $42 Mar $42 Puts for $2.
— Disciplined Trading (@oldarmy1) March 9, 2023
The 500 uncovered call side shares becomes your profit trade.
I love doing this at these big volume days because either it will rebound well or fail. I don't want to be a bag holder long on failing stocks, so use a 50% covered call approach and use the premium from the covered calls to buy your put side protection on all 100% of a stock in a downtrend. If it keeps going down the premium on the calls will be earned into your account. The $42 puts mean you can't lose more than the small difference between premium call earned and cost of in the money puts.
If brave you can buy the shares here and wait to see if a rebound into last hour but the strategy DEMANDS you do not go into tomorrow without cover.$JD....Bear market keep it tight and secure trade. Buy 1000 shares. Enter FIVE Apr 21 $40 covered calls for $3.55. Net on the 5 CC's would be $43.55, if called out. Buy 10 $42 Mar $42 Puts for $2.
— Disciplined Trading (@oldarmy1) March 9, 2023
The 500 uncovered call side shares becomes your profit trade.
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On WWR, the only thing making me skeptical is how hard it was to get financing for them. They are going to accept debt terms now when they are desperate and when capital is tight. They announced their initial feasibility study and received board approval to begin construction in late 2021. You'd think there would be some interest. WWR's market cap has traded below cash value for about a year.
I need to educate myself on Inflation Reduction Act. I heard few people hyping it during CERA week and WWR citing it in their press release.
I need to educate myself on Inflation Reduction Act. I heard few people hyping it during CERA week and WWR citing it in their press release.
What triggered the sell off today. The Silicon Valley Bank news came out last night and futures opened green.
Dan Scott said:
What triggered the sell off today. The Silicon Valley Bank news came out last night and futures opened green.
It says there are reports that funds are advising their clients to pull their money from SVB
Slappy007 said:OA, I assume you have to cut at some point if the stock keeps trending down, correct? How do you deal with the theta decay between the March puts and April covered calls as you get close to the March put expiration?oldarmy1 said:oldarmy1 said:Let me tweet another approach I use in bear markets and paste it here.ryanhnc10 said:
Thanks for the reply, makes sense$JD....Bear market keep it tight and secure trade. Buy 1000 shares. Enter FIVE Apr 21 $40 covered calls for $3.55. Net on the 5 CC's would be $43.55, if called out. Buy 10 $42 Mar $42 Puts for $2.
— Disciplined Trading (@oldarmy1) March 9, 2023
The 500 uncovered call side shares becomes your profit trade.
I love doing this at these big volume days because either it will rebound well or fail. I don't want to be a bag holder long on failing stocks, so use a 50% covered call approach and use the premium from the covered calls to buy your put side protection on all 100% of a stock in a downtrend. If it keeps going down the premium on the calls will be earned into your account. The $42 puts mean you can't lose more than the small difference between premium call earned and cost of in the money puts.
If brave you can buy the shares here and wait to see if a rebound into last hour but the strategy DEMANDS you do not go into tomorrow without cover.$JD....Bear market keep it tight and secure trade. Buy 1000 shares. Enter FIVE Apr 21 $40 covered calls for $3.55. Net on the 5 CC's would be $43.55, if called out. Buy 10 $42 Mar $42 Puts for $2.
— Disciplined Trading (@oldarmy1) March 9, 2023
The 500 uncovered call side shares becomes your profit trade.
You are basically using a heavy downtrend period that's already occurring to either accelerate or find support, which is why you collar with a shorter term put protection. I'm this instance of JD drops to say $37 on trend the next week I'll cash in the puts and reposition to a net neutral strike to the then current price. So $5 from entry on stocks under $50 I do that and the sooner that happens the better for premium gain.
Pretty good inverse pattern playing out longer timeframe. The H&S can play out on daily and only helps the symmetry on the weekly inverse pattern.oldarmy1 said:
I know I keep harping on the H&S pattern but Bear markets ALWAYS end with a crescendo. We might hold this H&S like last time and rally back upward. But don't be thinking long-term entries right now, absent a good strategy. It WILL eventually see new lows if it follows every bear market since the 70's. That's why these patterns are great to keep in your view.
And frankly we want that because otherwise we will become locked into a long-term sideways pattern that is much more difficult for retirement investors.Keeping it simple $SPX chart. No indicators, just candles. The last H&S failed to breakdown and lead to a nice move upward. See the current repeat sideways movement. HOWEVER, note the quick descent of last 3 days. That is a higher % likely failure technical. Still nothing yet pic.twitter.com/kDiW7aHGYV
— Disciplined Trading (@oldarmy1) March 9, 2023
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Keep an eye on GTII. I don't know the finer details other than the CEO has attorney's (Wes Christian) going after naked Short sellers. Rumblings that this action could sink a few HF's. If someone knows the details please post.ryanhnc10 said:Dan Scott said:
What triggered the sell off today. The Silicon Valley Bank news came out last night and futures opened green.
It says there are reports that funds are advising their clients to pull their money from SVB
Wes Christian is the attorney that is being requested by SAVA shareholders to SAVA leadership to go after SAVA naked Short sellers.
Also, the Citadel allegedly owns 5.5% of Silvergate (SI)
FWIW
Futures down 26. That confirms the H&S. I knew they would use the overnight to do it.
ryanhnc10 said:Dan Scott said:
What triggered the sell off today. The Silicon Valley Bank news came out last night and futures opened green.
It says there are reports that funds are advising their clients to pull their money from SVB
There was a run on SVB (Silicon Valley bank) today. It will probably continue tomorrow as the wire transfers will be initiated tomorrow. This bank holds most of the funds for venture capital funded start ups.
I wouldn't think this would impact the wider economy though. Just the companies banking with SVB and their investors. Unless people believe it's a sign other banks are in trouble too.
Sounds like a recession is coming.
Yesterday few traders traded $SIVB.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 10, 2023
But on March 7th a trader traded $SIVB $200 P 3/17/2023, the only volume all at ask.
They turned $0.13 per contract into $39.10 today at open.
They turned ~$4000 into ~$1,212,100.
Here's how: pic.twitter.com/WNRcrkWUqB
Sounds like material, nonpublic information to me…..Dan Scott said:Yesterday few traders traded $SIVB.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 10, 2023
But on March 7th a trader traded $SIVB $200 P 3/17/2023, the only volume all at ask.
They turned $0.13 per contract into $39.10 today at open.
They turned ~$4000 into ~$1,212,100.
Here's how: pic.twitter.com/WNRcrkWUqB
bmks270 said:ryanhnc10 said:Dan Scott said:
What triggered the sell off today. The Silicon Valley Bank news came out last night and futures opened green.
It says there are reports that funds are advising their clients to pull their money from SVB
There was a run on SVB (Silicon Valley bank) today. It will probably continue tomorrow as the wire transfers will be initiated tomorrow. This bank holds most of the funds for venture capital funded start ups.
I wouldn't think this would impact the wider economy though. Just the companies banking with SVB and their investors. Unless people believe it's a sign other banks are in trouble too.
I've never heard of SIVB before today and just felt the pain that investor in it must be feeling, that sucks. The 52 week high is $597 and it was $275 on f'ing Tuesday, it's now at $83.
This is a great reminder to never marry a stock. I'm not looking because I'm not in it, but I bet when it was at it's high, the headlines were stellar and going to the moon. Think ROKU at $400+, NFLX $700+, even TTD at $115 (although it's still planted in accounts). Stocks are a vehicle to increase your wealth, not your soulmate.
Yeah, that was definitely traded with inside information. I'd be surprised if they're allowed to keep that homerun because it should've popped up at the SEC.Dan Scott said:Yesterday few traders traded $SIVB.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 10, 2023
But on March 7th a trader traded $SIVB $200 P 3/17/2023, the only volume all at ask.
They turned $0.13 per contract into $39.10 today at open.
They turned ~$4000 into ~$1,212,100.
Here's how: pic.twitter.com/WNRcrkWUqB
mProgN said:Yeah, that was definitely traded with inside information. I'd be surprised if they're allowed to keep that homerun because it should've popped up at the SEC.Dan Scott said:Yesterday few traders traded $SIVB.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 10, 2023
But on March 7th a trader traded $SIVB $200 P 3/17/2023, the only volume all at ask.
They turned $0.13 per contract into $39.10 today at open.
They turned ~$4000 into ~$1,212,100.
Here's how: pic.twitter.com/WNRcrkWUqB
That's PMITA territory.
Thanks, very helpful.
Overnight session is almost bidless
Are we all makin bank and gettin ass tomorrow with SPY and META puts, and SQQQ calls? I think so
The night is long, and you have a data point that could have this thing very green by open. But like 30k said, zero attempts by bulls so far.Boy Named Sue said:
Are we all makin bank and gettin ass tomorrow with SPY and META puts, and SQQQ calls? I think so
2 year treasury down 30bps on 2 days.
JD earnings
Just In: $JD https://t.co/toZtiean45 Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Results and Dividend https://t.co/ko5J7LgZMR
— Market Wire News (@marketwirenews) March 10, 2023
#MWN #Stocks @newsfilterio @IntuitiveAICODE @Henry65320467 $PROSF $SI $NVIV
Took a while, but finally gaining steam. Watch out below.Heineken-Ashi said:Down to low $30's looks likely.TheCellarDoor said:
OA's APA is coiling tighter and tighter every day. I suck at charting, but if someone has it handy, it looks like something is about to give. Still a month left on the Dec' $55's.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
I'd really like to know who bought 96 $SIVB 17 March 23 $150 P's on March 6 for $0.01. They're trading around $64.30 right now.
— Archimedes (@AlphaTrader00) March 10, 2023
$96 into $617,184
aka a +642,900% gain
Has anyone ever seen a bigger % options pay off?
I sure haven't pic.twitter.com/8k8QYT2qrt
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/arch-rivals-iran-and-saudi-arabia-agree-to-revive-ties-reopen-embassies.html
Quote:
Regional foes Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to resume diplomatic relations and reopen embassies in each other's countries, both governments announced via their state media agencies.
"As a result of the talks, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to resume diplomatic relations and re-open embassies ...within two months," Iran's news agency IRNA reported Friday.
Saudi Arabia's state Saudi Press Agency confirmed the announcement in its own statement.
Watching for 386 and change on SPY.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
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Job Growtyh was 311K. Here we go
What were expectations?
300K jobs added. Estimate was 225, previous 500. I guess it's a "hot" print but bad news is good news. Let's see what happens after the first move.
Unemployment was up
Wage growth not as much as expected
Wage growth not as much as expected
I used to have a strategy of buying stock of good companies in crisis. I did it successfully with Citibank in 2009, I did it with Volkswagen after the emissions scandal, and I did it with BP for deep water horizon.
I did it unsuccessfully with Tokyo electric power co. It took me 5 years to get my money back.
SIVB feels like one of these opportunities but you have to size for zero.
I did it unsuccessfully with Tokyo electric power co. It took me 5 years to get my money back.
SIVB feels like one of these opportunities but you have to size for zero.
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SVB is just one symptom of a bigger issue me thinks.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I used to have a strategy of buying stock of good companies in crisis. I did it successfully with Citibank in 2009, I did it with Volkswagen after the emissions scandal, and I did it with BP for deep water horizon.
I did it unsuccessfully with Tokyo electric power co. It took me 5 years to get my money back.
SIVB feels like one of these opportunities but you have to size for zero.
Those successful opps you mentioned were not in the teeth of several different types of financial issues with the current economy. Yes Citi - but by that point - all the Lehman's were cut loose and JPM's Dimon was bringing his checkbook to buy those banks with issues.
Blackstone is defaulting on a European CMBS Bond. Brookfield defaulted on $750M in loans for some CRE in NYC. There is more and more traction of defaults out there.
What I am focused on is the underlying collateral - what do all these have in common? Bonds. The CMBS default = bond. The $750MM in Brookfield was a security instrument. The SVB took a $2.5B credit charge on some bond losses.
These are canaries in the coal mine IMO.
The fed will not allow them to fail.
So when you buying?
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Agreed - which is why I would not be surprised to see an announcement on Monday that SVB was being acquired by XYZ Megacorp Bank and offloading their book onto a stronger balance sheet.$30,000 Millionaire said:
The fed will not allow them to fail.
The MGMT of that bank royally effed up this entire situation by practically creating the run on their bank with the release of this news...
Probably a dumb question. I know they say to fade the first move off the numbers, but is that the premarket move, or the RTH move?
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