$30,000 Millionaire said:
If there is a push through the highs it is probably worth getting long.
This has not happened yet.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Stock Markets
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Last: 11 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
This has not happened yet.
Nothing like good ole Vix manipulation.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Got an xsp 390 call fly filled for .1 (~389 spy)
Sweet
NFLX smashes subscriber expectations
Great for Netflix!
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Quote:
I've worked with countless traders who would spend hours doing market analysis and planning trades for the next day Then, instead of putting on the trades they planned, they did something else. The trades they did put on were usually ideas from friends or tips from brokers. I probably don't have to tell you that the trades they originally planned, but didn't act on, were usually the big winners of the day.
This is a classic example of how we become susceptible to unstructured, random tradingbecause we want to avoid responsibility. When we act on our own ideas, we put our creative abilities on the line and we get instant feedback on how well our ideas worked. It's very difficult to rationalize away any unsatisfactory results. On the other hand, when we enter an unplanned, random trade, it's much easier to shift the responsibility by blaming the friend or the broker for their bad ideas.
Not anywhere near as bad as I used to be, but man I felt seen reading that today from Trading in the Zone.
Nice. Well done
I had a buy/write idea with DVN that I was on the fence about but I went ahead with it today. I already had a decent amount of DVN but not enough to write calls against, so I bought more today to meet that threshold.
Own 100 shares of DVN @$63 avg
Sold 1 Jan 2024 C70 @7.40
With the 8% dividend, I'll net a 30% return if DVN is above $70 in a year.
Own 100 shares of DVN @$63 avg
Sold 1 Jan 2024 C70 @7.40
With the 8% dividend, I'll net a 30% return if DVN is above $70 in a year.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I don't know the answer to your question.irish pete ag06 said:Would an oil ETF like USO or UCO be a way to play the crude catching up with equities?Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Triple_Bagger said:
How do you think oil will perform during a recession?
-In short, crude is bullish.
-Investment Banks that review commodities and equities are projecting 2023 average of $90-95 oil, yet the energy equities 2023 Price Targets are like $65 crude. The Price Targets on energy equities is off.
-Further, equities don't chase commodities. Commodities will come up to meet equities. Crude has been underperforming.
-If theres so much crude, why release SPR? (SPR releases should be over)
-DOE couldnt find anyone to provide an offer for Feb23 delivery of crude to the SPR in the $72 to $67 price range. They know crude is going up and they're going to miss the boat on refilling the SPR.
-if you check out Brent and WTI in the nearby and March contracts, using the 5 minute interval for volume, at exacting 225pmET, you will note that someone is establishing a Long position for the last 7 days. The volume of this 5 minute period dwarfs all other 5 minute periods and it's not even close. Yesterday's purchases were about half of the previous 6 days. However, when 12,000 to 19,000 contracts of each WTI and Brent are being purchased and one contract is 1000 barrels and they arent even trying to hide it, for 7 days at 225pmET something is up. I think it is the U.S. Govt buying a paper Long to offset the SPR Short they cant buy in the cash market as a hedge to higher crude prices that are coming.
-The world crude S&D with China reopening will really start to appear in a robust sense in Q2; albeit, you can already see demand ramping China. Air traffic increasing and jet fuel demand in China are moving upward fast, all other energy sectors there will hit full stride by Q2.
Or GUSH if we wanted to really go crazy?
I have some acquaintances that once they think XOM has topped for a while they'll reverse positions, sell the XOM and buy DRIP. Then when XOM appears to be hitting a floor they'll buy XOM and sell the DRIP. I have never participated in that trade. They claim they are making money. I guess if you overlay a chart of DRIP on top of XOM, you might see if there is any accuracy to it. Both are active, have liquidity and show volatility....has to be a money play in there somewhere.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Good job.
I am aiming to do similar with XOM and CVX. I had the same plan a couple months ago, but Option premiums didn't meet my order expectations. This go round I think it gets executed.
Also, I will be trimming some XOM starting at $118.50. Math says it's going to $124, but I am happy if I get my fills at my starting point. If/when it gets in the $124-ish range, my real money will come from the Call Options, either Jan'24, Jun'24 or Jan'25.
I can build solid scenarios with ease that put XOM at $140 in 2 years and $200 within 5 years, but that's a long long time off in the future..
I am aiming to do similar with XOM and CVX. I had the same plan a couple months ago, but Option premiums didn't meet my order expectations. This go round I think it gets executed.
Also, I will be trimming some XOM starting at $118.50. Math says it's going to $124, but I am happy if I get my fills at my starting point. If/when it gets in the $124-ish range, my real money will come from the Call Options, either Jan'24, Jun'24 or Jan'25.
I can build solid scenarios with ease that put XOM at $140 in 2 years and $200 within 5 years, but that's a long long time off in the future..
Google parent to lay off 12,000 workers in latest blow to tech sector
Spy bounce this morning? Just a gut feeling but seems everyone is frustrated with sideways movement and I think we may have an early morning run to see if it can breakout. Thoughts?
Charismatic Megafauna
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Charismatic Megafauna said:
If 389 doesn't reclaim and hold i think we see 378.3 again in short order
These were my thoughts yesterday, and we closed basically right at 389 (which happens with comical frequency)
Here are mancinis thoughts
Yesterday, #ES_F back-tested its most important support: The 3900 lvl it broke out Jan 6. My target was 3945 and we got to 3940 then chopped. Decision time for bulls
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) January 20, 2023
Plan today: 3915-20=support. As long as above it; 3945 (strong), 3960 in play. 3915 fails, we sell to 3900, 3885 https://t.co/If9N550FKH
I like your thought about being frustrated with sideways movement though, maybe i will try to pin today's open
The last couple of OPEX sessions have traded down to rally in the last hour and close near break even.
Let's see what we get today.
Let's see what we get today.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Just a reminder that today is by nature lower probability.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I would watch VIX and DXY for guidance.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Ok above 3932 on e mini to go long.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
3920 is a key support. I think below 3900 will be a feat for the sellers. Assume bearish lean unless bulls clear something
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Out of all BABA calls I got in yesterday
Proce action is not normally this slow in IB
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Market waiting for data release.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Damn near everything on my watch list is green.
Danger.
Danger.
They're teasing.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
So far SPY has tested the PMH and PML.
That was cruel. They got people long by poking above the down trend line to push it down.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Announcement reminded me to cancel ours this morning.Bonfire1996 said:
NFLX smashes subscriber expectations
8/21 crossover this morn on the 5min. Keeping an eye out for a 21ema backtest
Reaching the top of the DB (~351ish) again this morning. It either busts through or rejects again.
Yep. I was able to actually set an alert for this on Tradingview, IT WORKED. Now watching, although with OPEX and in range, this could be a day to get in and out quick.
ADBE, top of Darvas Box... can usually shot from here back down. Also gives an easy stop loss.
Great minds
maybe we model T that big drop. That'd be roughly 393.50.
In ADBE 330 for next week, 1.05.
Just filled for 1/27 345p for 4.10. Stop @ ~$3.50. No desire to hold this overnight.
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