In my opinion, The best scenario would be $spx 3200ish first as the Fed has to raise 1 or 2 more times. Then the Fed is done. Fed doesn’t talk about cutting until a capitulation low 3200ish, then we have a trend back to 4100 & that is 2023 range trade.Then 2024/2025 new $spx high https://t.co/loVSX5PszM
— Scott Redler (@RedDogT3) December 31, 2022
The Fed certainly cares about the market when it is doing what they don't want. See Jackson Hole speech.ChemAg15 said:
The Fed doesn't give a **** about the stock market, right? This guy sounds like he expects the Fed to watch the market for signals to determine when to stop cutting rates.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I don't really care too much for calendar year predictions, but I think I said I thought SPX would end the year around 4000. 3840 is close enough.
For 2023 I think we will mark some sort of multi year bottom and that it will happen in the first half, no later than end of July. I think 2023 will close 4000 - 4200.
I think the bottoming price will be 3200 - 3300, possibly an overshoot to like 3050. 3300 is going to put up a big fight. Bottom will happen when the fed pivots in my opinion.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Bookmark this.
In 2 to 3 weeks Saudi will cut crude production. OPEC+ is 3.4mbd under quota for August. Record for being under quota. Basically, since the beginning of the year Commercials have approximately a 9 million barrel build....while 150 million barrels have been released from the SPR (March to present). There is no "build". Maybe that helps paint the picture a bit better. Without the SPR releases(March to present), WTI should have been and presently be $150+, gasoline at the pump should have been and presently be north of $10/gal......for several months.. November should deliver the racheting price increases. Energy is not going to help those CPI numbers, that's why I noted earlier energy could blow up the CPI progress in the YoY calculation.
But ask yourself, are we really at 8% inflation? Maybe consider this, this Administration (DOE/EIA) published numbers that stated our fuel demand/consumption in June and/or July was less than our COVID Lock-Down when nobody drove to work. Sure it was..
In my opinion, The best scenario would be $spx 3200ish first as the Fed has to raise 1 or 2 more times. Then the Fed is done. Fed doesn’t talk about cutting until a capitulation low 3200ish, then we have a trend back to 4100 & that is 2023 range trade.Then 2024/2025 new $spx high https://t.co/loVSX5PszM
— Scott Redler (@RedDogT3) December 31, 2022
irish pete ag06 said:Forgot to add that they are seeing Q3 potential rate cut... likely after visiting 3200irish pete ag06 said:
Just throwing out the data point. Lunch with an investment company rep. Their dude is thinking 3200 in 2023.
Don't shoot the messenger, just figured if I such at bringing trades to this place, at least I can bring this insight.
ProgN said:
Did you put on a fresh coat of blue toenail polish for this evening?
Happy New Year brother.
While the seasonal trend tracks poorly in bear markets, the seasonal turn points kept timing major $SPX turns decently in 2022 (major Jan high; March, June & Oct lows lined up). If it continues, worth noting while 1st week of Jan very strong, next key pivot is ~2nd week & bearish pic.twitter.com/n5VY7HYUeu
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) January 1, 2023
From 9/13 forward...The Biden Administration added 3 more increases in SPR Releases to the 180 million barrel (largest Release). SPR Releases to date are approx. 220 million barrels. Saudi either missed production quota (a cut) or announced a production cut during the same time period. Those releases were offset by the cuts. The S&D shows a total overall draw, but the draw is minimized by the SPR Releases. Demand is not shrinking or declining. Liberals did their job, kept gas prices low at the pump to get re-elected.Nomenclature said:
09/13/22Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Bookmark this.
In 2 to 3 weeks Saudi will cut crude production. OPEC+ is 3.4mbd under quota for August. Record for being under quota. Basically, since the beginning of the year Commercials have approximately a 9 million barrel build....while 150 million barrels have been released from the SPR (March to present). There is no "build". Maybe that helps paint the picture a bit better. Without the SPR releases(March to present), WTI should have been and presently be $150+, gasoline at the pump should have been and presently be north of $10/gal......for several months.. November should deliver the racheting price increases. Energy is not going to help those CPI numbers, that's why I noted earlier energy could blow up the CPI progress in the YoY calculation.
But ask yourself, are we really at 8% inflation? Maybe consider this, this Administration (DOE/EIA) published numbers that stated our fuel demand/consumption in June and/or July was less than our COVID Lock-Down when nobody drove to work. Sure it was..
Anything ever come of this?
Quote:
Because Europe will continue to import LNG to rebuild gas inventories next year after winter, gas prices are expected to remain elevated as limited new supplies come onstream.
The dismantling of tight pandemic controls in China, the world's second-largest LNG importer, could also promote economic recovery and greater LNG consumption next year.
However, a European cap on gas prices starting in February could keep a lid on the market and reduce the volatility seen this year.
Bonfire1996 said:
The cost of a jumbo mortgage (cost being interest rates) has literally doubled in a year.
Capitulation is when the cost to pay the debt service returns to a normal level and inventory returns to six months.
According to my calculations that is around a 30-40% drop in prices for homes above $950k
18 year property cycle... pretty neat trend that some folks have tracked back centuries...BaylorSpineGuy said:
Let's talk about capitulation…..
My good friend and mentor is a neurosurgeon who has had his home on the market for about 6-7 months here in DFW. No buyers at his initial listing and they subsequently lowered by $250K. There's been still no interest at that price.
He recently told my dad he's thinking about lowering price by another $450K "to just get out of the house". Is this capitulation?
Sure seems we may at least be getting close in the jumbo real estate market. We have been looking at one home that we really like, just not at the current price. I got word through our agent that the owners are thinking about taking home off the market cause they're getting no interest. I don't think they will bite at the price we are gonna throw but who knows….
Wishing my savings acct was a bit more buffed up but it is what it is….will update if we walk backwards into this home. If we get it at the price we are gonna throw, then we are getting 2011 prices on this home.
Wow. Until job losses come, this blip in the housing market is just a blip. Demand is just going to get pent up awaiting the next rate down cycle. If job losses come and the FED maintains a high rate policy, the jumbo market could have significant blood in the streets.BaylorSpineGuy said:Bonfire1996 said:
The cost of a jumbo mortgage (cost being interest rates) has literally doubled in a year.
Capitulation is when the cost to pay the debt service returns to a normal level and inventory returns to six months.
According to my calculations that is around a 30-40% drop in prices for homes above $950k
My friend's home was at $1.5M and he's planning to go to $800K.
The home we like was bought 1.5 yrs ago for $1.8M, and we are gonna try at $1.1-1.2M.
FJ43 said:
My question is why does he want to 'get out' of the house?
BaylorSpineGuy said:FJ43 said:
My question is why does he want to 'get out' of the house?
It's complicated and not wanting to share Too much of others' business, but suffice to say a 5500 sq ft home is too much for 1 person.
