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FJ43
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Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

ChemAg15
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AG
The Fed doesn't give a **** about the stock market, right? This guy sounds like he expects the Fed to watch the market for signals to determine when to stop cutting rates.
lobwedgephil
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ChemAg15 said:

The Fed doesn't give a **** about the stock market, right? This guy sounds like he expects the Fed to watch the market for signals to determine when to stop cutting rates.
The Fed certainly cares about the market when it is doing what they don't want. See Jackson Hole speech.
SF2004
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AG
I tend to think the next volatile drop will put in the low.

Then the next bull run begins.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Of course the fed cares. They have a dual mandate. High stock prices = high employment.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I don't really care too much for calendar year predictions, but I think I said I thought SPX would end the year around 4000. 3840 is close enough.

For 2023 I think we will mark some sort of multi year bottom and that it will happen in the first half, no later than end of July. I think 2023 will close 4000 - 4200.

I think the bottoming price will be 3200 - 3300, possibly an overshoot to like 3050. 3300 is going to put up a big fight. Bottom will happen when the fed pivots in my opinion.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
SF2004
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AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:

I don't really care too much for calendar year predictions, but I think I said I thought SPX would end the year around 4000. 3840 is close enough.

For 2023 I think we will mark some sort of multi year bottom and that it will happen in the first half, no later than end of July. I think 2023 will close 4000 - 4200.

I think the bottoming price will be 3200 - 3300, possibly an overshoot to like 3050. 3300 is going to put up a big fight. Bottom will happen when the fed pivots in my opinion.


My man!
Pizza
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09/13/22

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Bookmark this.

In 2 to 3 weeks Saudi will cut crude production. OPEC+ is 3.4mbd under quota for August. Record for being under quota. Basically, since the beginning of the year Commercials have approximately a 9 million barrel build....while 150 million barrels have been released from the SPR (March to present). There is no "build". Maybe that helps paint the picture a bit better. Without the SPR releases(March to present), WTI should have been and presently be $150+, gasoline at the pump should have been and presently be north of $10/gal......for several months.. November should deliver the racheting price increases. Energy is not going to help those CPI numbers, that's why I noted earlier energy could blow up the CPI progress in the YoY calculation.

But ask yourself, are we really at 8% inflation? Maybe consider this, this Administration (DOE/EIA) published numbers that stated our fuel demand/consumption in June and/or July was less than our COVID Lock-Down when nobody drove to work. Sure it was..


Anything ever come of this?
irish pete ag06
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AG


30K seems to think the same.

2 different investment companies I talked to had same outlook.

It makes the most sense.
irish pete ag06
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AG
irish pete ag06 said:

irish pete ag06 said:

Just throwing out the data point. Lunch with an investment company rep. Their dude is thinking 3200 in 2023.

Don't shoot the messenger, just figured if I such at bringing trades to this place, at least I can bring this insight.
Forgot to add that they are seeing Q3 potential rate cut... likely after visiting 3200


Quote tweeting this from a meeting 2 weeks ago
FJ43
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Happy New Years Gents!

It's be a great year with all of y'all and 23' will be another. Take all the knowledge you've learned this year and turn it into wisdom to better your family's future.

See y'all in the next trading session.

Trade Wisely!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

ProgN
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Did you put on a fresh coat of blue toenail polish for this evening?

Happy New Year brother.
FJ43
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ProgN said:

Did you put on a fresh coat of blue toenail polish for this evening?

Happy New Year brother.


Well she has it on. I've been buried in land hunting. Time to buy from those that need to unload.

If I get this priority I'll paint ten fingers and toes and post it.


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

spud1910
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AG
Happy New Year to all of you. Hope 2023 is the best yet!
Charismatic Megafauna
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I used to know a Donna Halasz. What are the chances?

Happy New Year boys!
irish pete ag06
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Happy New Year, Fellas!

Love this place and you folks.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Savings rate for the year -- 75%.
FJ43
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Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

jimmo
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Happy New Year !
to all OA's minions and degenerates
Glad you guys are here
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Nomenclature said:

09/13/22

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Bookmark this.

In 2 to 3 weeks Saudi will cut crude production. OPEC+ is 3.4mbd under quota for August. Record for being under quota. Basically, since the beginning of the year Commercials have approximately a 9 million barrel build....while 150 million barrels have been released from the SPR (March to present). There is no "build". Maybe that helps paint the picture a bit better. Without the SPR releases(March to present), WTI should have been and presently be $150+, gasoline at the pump should have been and presently be north of $10/gal......for several months.. November should deliver the racheting price increases. Energy is not going to help those CPI numbers, that's why I noted earlier energy could blow up the CPI progress in the YoY calculation.

But ask yourself, are we really at 8% inflation? Maybe consider this, this Administration (DOE/EIA) published numbers that stated our fuel demand/consumption in June and/or July was less than our COVID Lock-Down when nobody drove to work. Sure it was..


Anything ever come of this?
From 9/13 forward...The Biden Administration added 3 more increases in SPR Releases to the 180 million barrel (largest Release). SPR Releases to date are approx. 220 million barrels. Saudi either missed production quota (a cut) or announced a production cut during the same time period. Those releases were offset by the cuts. The S&D shows a total overall draw, but the draw is minimized by the SPR Releases. Demand is not shrinking or declining. Liberals did their job, kept gas prices low at the pump to get re-elected.

As for the DOE/EIA numbers, they're jacked up, but it appears the Monthly Adjustments will continue until the previous demand numbers get rearranged to show something near normal expectations of demand - show demand was/is increasing from summer forward. EIA tried to show demand decreasing.

Nothing came of the jacked up numbers, but analysts know something was/is "off" because they mention the oddity in articles, but cannot accuse EIA because they do not have a smoking gun for evidence,...yet.

So, nothing happened per-se. An artificial supply (SPR) kept a lid on crude oil price action.

The coming weeks EIA weekly report due out on Thursday should not have SPR Releases ("I think" they are done). It will be this Thursday's report or the next Wednesday's report. I'm not sure if the Biden Administration would stop SPR releases if Congress wasn't mandated to sell barrels from the SPR in 2023. I think Joe would like to drain the SPR a lot more if he could. ......Right now, Joe Biden is trying to buy crude (3 million barrels for Feb delivery to start refilling the SPR at $70 per barrel) and offers were due December 28th and simultaneously, Congress is mandated to sell crude from the SPR this year. This is not a good situation to be in.

Regardless of all the above, I am bullish WTI and Brent. When Saudi meets again, expect another production cut. Note to remember, Russia was 10 to 11 mbpd when things were normal. I don't think they will be close to that number going forward (Dec 2022 thru 2023...and longer) and world crude supply is going to tighten up.
HoustonAg2014
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Hey we're only 500% from being back to even! No bad juju
techno-ag
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Happy New Year.

My predictions for gas prices going up in Jan still there. Of course I'm just a nobody on the internet so this is probably worth what you paid for it.

Recent article:

Quote:

Because Europe will continue to import LNG to rebuild gas inventories next year after winter, gas prices are expected to remain elevated as limited new supplies come onstream.

The dismantling of tight pandemic controls in China, the world's second-largest LNG importer, could also promote economic recovery and greater LNG consumption next year.

However, a European cap on gas prices starting in February could keep a lid on the market and reduce the volatility seen this year.


https://m.investing.com/news/commodities-news/coal-gas-lead-2022-commodities-rally-recession-fears-greet-new-year-2971279

I don't think the price cap is going to work the way the Europeans think it will.

Also note when we can't send more gas overseas it depresses US NG futures. But, there's a certain Texas LNG plant on the coast ready to get back in operation if government regulators will give it the green light. I think four tankers are waiting at anchor ready to ship if it ever opens. (Other plants are in the works here and in Mexico but might not come online anytime soon.)

Anyway, happy trading.
sts7049
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price controls never do work the way people think they will
texAZtea
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What happens to the market if this war intensifies?
$30,000 Millionaire
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I think healthcare may be the trade of 2023.

Re: SPX, the more I think about it, I think inflation becomes less of a catalyst and the next catalyst becomes recession fears after earnings events.

Tech is dead except for AI tech.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Let's talk about capitulation…..

My good friend and mentor is a neurosurgeon who has had his home on the market for about 6-7 months here in DFW. No buyers at his initial listing and they subsequently lowered by $250K. There's been still no interest at that price.

He recently told my dad he's thinking about lowering price by another $450K "to just get out of the house". Is this capitulation?

Sure seems we may at least be getting close in the jumbo real estate market. We have been looking at one home that we really like, just not at the current price. I got word through our agent that the owners are thinking about taking home off the market cause they're getting no interest. I don't think they will bite at the price we are gonna throw but who knows….

Wishing my savings acct was a bit more buffed up but it is what it is….will update if we walk backwards into this home. If we get it at the price we are gonna throw, then we are getting 2011 prices on this home.
Bonfire1996
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The cost of a jumbo mortgage (cost being interest rates) has literally doubled in a year.

Capitulation is when the cost to pay the debt service returns to a normal level and inventory returns to six months.

According to my calculations that is around a 30-40% drop in prices for homes above $950k
BaylorSpineGuy
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Bonfire1996 said:

The cost of a jumbo mortgage (cost being interest rates) has literally doubled in a year.

Capitulation is when the cost to pay the debt service returns to a normal level and inventory returns to six months.

According to my calculations that is around a 30-40% drop in prices for homes above $950k


My friend's home was at $1.5M and he's planning to go to $800K.

The home we like was bought 1.5 yrs ago for $1.8M, and we are gonna try at $1.1-1.2M.
irish pete ag06
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AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:

Let's talk about capitulation…..

My good friend and mentor is a neurosurgeon who has had his home on the market for about 6-7 months here in DFW. No buyers at his initial listing and they subsequently lowered by $250K. There's been still no interest at that price.

He recently told my dad he's thinking about lowering price by another $450K "to just get out of the house". Is this capitulation?

Sure seems we may at least be getting close in the jumbo real estate market. We have been looking at one home that we really like, just not at the current price. I got word through our agent that the owners are thinking about taking home off the market cause they're getting no interest. I don't think they will bite at the price we are gonna throw but who knows….

Wishing my savings acct was a bit more buffed up but it is what it is….will update if we walk backwards into this home. If we get it at the price we are gonna throw, then we are getting 2011 prices on this home.
18 year property cycle... pretty neat trend that some folks have tracked back centuries...

FJ43
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My question is why does he want to 'get out' of the house?
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Bonfire1996
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AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:

Bonfire1996 said:

The cost of a jumbo mortgage (cost being interest rates) has literally doubled in a year.

Capitulation is when the cost to pay the debt service returns to a normal level and inventory returns to six months.

According to my calculations that is around a 30-40% drop in prices for homes above $950k


My friend's home was at $1.5M and he's planning to go to $800K.

The home we like was bought 1.5 yrs ago for $1.8M, and we are gonna try at $1.1-1.2M.
Wow. Until job losses come, this blip in the housing market is just a blip. Demand is just going to get pent up awaiting the next rate down cycle. If job losses come and the FED maintains a high rate policy, the jumbo market could have significant blood in the streets.
wanderer
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I have a pretty hard time believing any house is back at it's 2011 level right now.
BaylorSpineGuy
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FJ43 said:

My question is why does he want to 'get out' of the house?


It's complicated and not wanting to share Too much of others' business, but suffice to say a 5500 sq ft home is too much for 1 person.
FJ43
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

FJ43 said:

My question is why does he want to 'get out' of the house?


It's complicated and not wanting to share Too much of others' business, but suffice to say a 5500 sq ft home is too much for 1 person.


Understood and appreciated.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

BaylorSpineGuy
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I love this board. So many wise people from all walks. It's good that you have accepted this Bear as one of your own. Our website has nothing like this. Rare air here, really!
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