$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Long tomorrow 395C at 1.5. Stop 1.1

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I don't like the action. Going to scratch the trade.

watch spy support at 1030-1130 trend line to see if it holds. (It failed, I type to slow). If fails, I think bears get momentum. 1215 resistance was at 394.55 which was at monthly 5ema and 0.236 fib drawn from premkt low to todays hod. 390.99 was the premarket low. 392.31 was the 10:30 support and 0.702 fib (today lod to hod). Next is 392, 0.786 fib. and then 391.65 (yesterday lod).

Let's buy those dudes back at the next 392 touch

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Let's buy those dudes back at the next 392 touch

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If this hits for the third time I am joining. I bought puts at 395.11. If the 392 gets rejected a third time, I am selling my puts and reversing.

South Platte said:

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BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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2 year treasury is now 15 basis points below where rates will be in 8 days. This is the first time this has happened during the Fed's current tightening cycle. For the past year, the 2 year treasury has listened to Powell and other members, and accelerated past where the next move was anticipated to go.

Translated: Market is telling the FED, "you don't have the balls to keep rates at next week's level for very long."

We are in a dangerous place for fiscal policy at the moment.

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So if the 2 yr yield is gonna drop (and looks to have already peaked), are there any leveraged ETF's to trade to gain exposure to the short term bond?

It looks like it's in a big H&S pattern now with the neckline around 4.25. A break below there and it could drop pretty aggressively with significant move in bond price.

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Not a short term treasury leveraged ETF, but I'm up 22% on TMF, a 20 year treasury bull ETF. I only got in after watching TTT churn up smoothly all of 2022 and then start to pull back.

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I found one called UTWO. It's a 2 yr treasury ETF. Options don't trade much it seems. But looks to be in a C&H/IH&S pattern.

Should really move when 2yr falls below 4.25. Big question is what happens after next FOMC. Definitely lower risk after that….

Watch 392.4 area on spy

spy 1317 reversed lower at multiple points of resistance. Hourly 5 ema, todays 0.5 (model t) fib, and upper trend line drawn on the 12:25 and 1236 candles. The trend line has been resistance multiple times.

You guys in NatGas be careful. Reports out now that safety regulators are likely not going to allow Freeport to reopen until late Jan or Feb. That's bearish, but I am not saying go Short. JB Administration is not going to allow Freeport to open and have 20% of U.S. NatGas leave this market. They know energy is in short supply.

Regarding crude, don't care what WTI-NYMEX is showing.(Same crap happens in Chicago Corn Futures last 3 years now - no physical supply but Futures price reflect a bin-buster inventory) On Twitter, 75% of the time (historically) that oil and oil equities diverged, oil caught up instead of the equities collapsing. I'm holding my XOM and CVX.

API and EIA showed draws this week. Builds in some finished products. Bottomline, take out the 180 227.20 million barrels of SPR from the 2022 S&D and tell me what you get. It's a massive draw. Putting an artificial supply into the market - I can't guess any price direction until it happens - price went down. Take the artificial supply out,....I guess you should get the opposite reaction,...bullish, right? We'll see.

The Treasury bull/bear is hard for me to grasp. I still don't know what makes it rise/fall, but looking at the long term charts on TMF and TTT there is less volatility than other leveraged ETF's, and once it starts moving, it doesn't quickly reverse. Famous last words.

spy today's options expirations with the most open interest are 400c, 395c, 390p and 392p. If we close above 392 and below 395, a large number of premium sellers win. So much chop today.

Here we go. Let's see if 392.5 can get taken out.

Spy looks like it's drawing a right shoulder on a head and shoulders formation. Looking at a five minute chart starting at 10:35 for the left shoulder. 5 min chart. It looks like part of a bigger head and shoulders that started yesterday at 13:30 left shoulder, top 10:05, rt shoulder top 1215. You can tell when I have a day off because I can't quit posting. Above 393.69 breaks the smaller (1035 start) right shoulder high for a long play.

Triple_Bagger said:

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We're up 15% today! Don't rain on our parade Johnson!

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Excellent! I'm clapping for you man!

I just went ahead and grabbed a 394c for tomorrow

Txducker said:

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You can tell when I have a day off because I can't quit posting.

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I dig it man, enjoying the stream of consciousness!

Username doesn't check out, however. You know it's duck season, right? (North zone at least)

If it wasn't the end of the year I would think 3700 would hit before 4000. I could see tomorrow opening up at 390 or 395 at this point.

With that being said, good luck traders!

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Txducker said:

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You can tell when I have a day off because I can't quit posting.

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I dig it man, enjoying the stream of consciousness!

Username doesn't check out, however. You know it's duck season, right? (North zone at least)

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DFW area. I grew up a duck hunting every weekend with my Dad (mostly cedar creek lake) in the 80's. Moved to Mt Pleasant Tx after A&M and hunted that area a lot. Now back in DFW, it's been years since I have gone. I hate living in the city!!!!

I caught that short but man, that bounced fast.

interesting short... saw another I follow on twitter mention it first.

I liked $CAT short yesterday, then added to my puts on the spike up to $229. I expect in the next couple days it will break the $225 level and then has room to around $210 pic.twitter.com/Bs3zsh4zGy

— Kira Turner (@KirasEpicTrades) December 7, 2022

I feel you! We at least have decent bay hunting opportunities down here in Houston

Trying to decide if I want to take profits on BOIL quite yet.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Trying to decide if I want to take profits on BOIL quite yet.

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BOIL is a tough one to manage. I went ahead and sold 12/16 C30s on all my shares today locking in an 11% profit if we close over $30 on 12/16.

If not, I lowered my entry cost to $26.5/share and can sell another round of calls for January.

Triple_Bagger said:

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SAVA

AUSTIN, Texas, Dec. 06, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Cassava Sciences, Inc.(SAVA) , a clinical-stage biotechnology company, today announced the completion of drug administration in an open-label study of simufilam for Alzheimer's disease. This study was designed to evaluate long-term drug safety and to measure cognitive changes (ADAS-cog) over 12 months in approximately 200 patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease treated with open-label simufilam 100 mg twice daily. Simufilam is Cassava Sciences' oral drug candidate for Alzheimer's disease dementia.

To ensure the highest integrity of data analysis, outside biostatisticians with specific expertise in Alzheimer's disease will conduct an independent statistical analysis on the clinical dataset. Cassava Sciences(SAVA) may announce study results approximately year-end 2022, pending completion of a study report by outside biostatisticians.

"We are thrilled with the progress made to date in the clinical development of simufilam, our oral drug candidate for people with Alzheimer's disease," said Remi Barbier, President & CEO. "We applaud recent clinical advances with anti-amyloid antibody drugs for Alzheimer's, but these may not be enough. I think innovations are needed around new targets, new molecules, drug safety and dosing. I believe Cassava Sciences(SAVA) may be at the forefront of this effort to innovate."

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Looks like this news is getting processed today

I closed my spy shorts because I work tomorrow (I have minimum ability to watch my trades working in a hospital directly with patients). I did not like the fact there was not a new low set today. I could easily see a bounce/mean reversion trade from here with the last several days being down and that 392.40 level held multiple times.

Yeah there was a lot of volume on this weeks C35. I think that's too early. Next week is probably the earliest they will have the data for release. Might get a buyable dip before then.

Foamcows said:

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Anyone else here monitoring $ZIM? been invested in it for quite some time, and been cost averaging it down as it drops, but its starting to get extremely painful and I am wondering if I am missing some red flags?

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ugh another terrible day, down 7.8%... any tips on when to let something die, versus when to keep buying in? right now my average cost is 34.00 and this is trading at 17.75... its a great opportunity to get more shares at half off, but if this thing is headed for a cliff...

Gonna put it a trailing stop and lock in +10%.

Foamcows said:

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Foamcows said:

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Anyone else here monitoring $ZIM? been invested in it for quite some time, and been cost averaging it down as it drops, but its starting to get extremely painful and I am wondering if I am missing some red flags?

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ugh another terrible day, down 7.8%... any tips on when to let something die, versus when to keep buying in? right now my average cost is 34.00 and this is trading at 17.75... its a great opportunity to get more shares at half off, but if this thing is headed for a cliff...

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It really depends if you're trading or investing and what you think the future value of the company will be.

If you're an investor, then you should be happy to buy at a 50% discount from where you started buying.

If you're a trader, then it's more complicated. You should have a stop price in mind when you buy. Down 50% should be well below your stop price. The decision to average down depends if there are better opportunities for your money or not.

Triple_Bagger said:

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Foamcows said:

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Foamcows said:

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Anyone else here monitoring $ZIM? been invested in it for quite some time, and been cost averaging it down as it drops, but its starting to get extremely painful and I am wondering if I am missing some red flags?

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ugh another terrible day, down 7.8%... any tips on when to let something die, versus when to keep buying in? right now my average cost is 34.00 and this is trading at 17.75... its a great opportunity to get more shares at half off, but if this thing is headed for a cliff...

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It really depends if you're trading or investing and what you think the future value of the company will be.

If you're an investor, then you should be happy to buy at a 50% discount from where you started buying.

If you're a trader, then it's more complicated. You should have a stop price in mind when you buy. Down 50% should be well below your stop price. The decision to average down depends if there are better opportunities for your money or not.

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good way to think about it... based on the criteria, i would say I'm on the investor side, but starting to worry if i missed some red flags in the financials... they are sitting on nearly 5 billion in cash and cratering for reasons i cant seem to understand.

Happy to buy more but just wondering what others are seeing to make them run away...

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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I just went ahead and grabbed a 394c for tomorrow

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I took the easy 20% on this. We'll probably get the gap up tomorrow