Can someone explain to me why all of the Oil stocks are being shorted even though it's most likely oil will continue to gain in price over the next few years?
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Last: 1 hr ago by 59 South
Like I said, I wouldn't advise anyone to gamble with short term puts trying to pick the top but the underlying concerns remain. Imo, this isn't a reversal and the economic headwinds remain. December should have more up than down days and J Pow did exactly what I thought he'd do. The huge MOC was probably algo programmed trades. I agree with 30K that it'll give some back. I think we get follow through at the open but wouldn't be surprised if we go red. This is definitely a traders market this month with bias towards the upside. If you can't watch your short term plays then don't play.perma Brew doomster said:
I don't know. MOC was 11 B to the buy side. that volume was unreal this afternoon. I'm not saying recession canceled, 5000 S&P inbound. I just think short term this could be a nice wave up, maybe even peak out of yearly downtrend line and really throw the bears off.
It seems too that this board is too bearish. Maybe that is another reason why markets are ripping!
I'd hate to be long January and February though!
oh and from the man himself:Best look is once we fill the 4083 I would expect overrun to 4119 high on that candle. As high as 4150, but we get that and its an easy short for Model T between that and 3950.
— Disciplined Trading (@oldarmy1) November 30, 2022
Because Farmer is in our investing clubhouse and not theirs.Premium said:
Can someone explain to me why all of the Oil stocks are being shorted even though it's most likely oil will continue to gain in price over the next few years?
Kidding aside, it could be just protecting a big long position against a price drop. You probably have some that believe oil will be eliminated as they unknowingly short it while surrounded by comforts that they wouldn't have if it wasn't for oil.
I think tomorrow either goes up, or down. Or maybe sideways.
From listening to the first 20 minutes of the speech yesterday I would've put my life that day would end red. Instead SPY went up 15 dollars from its low and is still on the rise pre market. TA says it's overbought but I'm learning just how much the big money people can move the market regardless of what you would think should happen.
Getting a lot of "Black Friday sale extended" marketing emails.
I expected this and will look to fade the open.Golf1 said:
From listening to the first 20 minutes of the speech yesterday I would've put my life that day would end red. Instead SPY went up 15 dollars from its low and is still on the rise pre market. TA says it's overbought but I'm learning just how much the big money people can move the market regardless of what you would think should happen.
It's really not surprising thinking about it all now. Pretty clear and easy chance to trap the shorts and that's exactly what happened.
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Did you catch the squeeze prog?
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Golf1 said:
It's really not surprising thinking about it all now. Pretty clear and easy chance to trap the shorts and that's exactly what happened.
Also, dont forget (I dont remember seeing it in this thread) last week we were at an all time high for the Put Call Ratio. Some think that means bearish sentiment while others believe it is a contrarian indicator. I'm in the latter camp.
I use my own low tech monte carlo on my portfolio and it tells me a lot of securities need to play catch up.
But, remember this, my quote from early November that WTI I guarandamnteed you that it would not go below $80 for the next 18 months....that didnt age well.
In this near term (15 days) I am bullish overall. FWIW
Not surprising to me either after the stupid pump on a .2% reduction in CPI last month.
There is nothing good about the macro market or economy right now and this pumps. Pretty much all T/A indicators show that you should be short but I now trust none of them so my trading portfolio is exposed very little.
Just playing for a pop in volatility in the next couple of months. Tough to beat buy and hold just doing that.
There is nothing good about the macro market or economy right now and this pumps. Pretty much all T/A indicators show that you should be short but I now trust none of them so my trading portfolio is exposed very little.
Just playing for a pop in volatility in the next couple of months. Tough to beat buy and hold just doing that.
Pre-market looks bonkers
yesCharismatic Megafauna said:
Did you catch the squeeze prog?
ETA: I didn't expect that big of a squeeze though
$ES futures closed the gap with overrun searching for resistance. https://t.co/1votOOjMFV
— Disciplined Trading (@oldarmy1) December 1, 2022
Yesterday, #ES_F cleared its 200dma for the 1st time & broke out a month long base. This starts a new leg - my 1st target was 4080 & cleared/backtested overnight
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) December 1, 2022
Plan today: As long as 4075-80 keeps holding (4050 backtest lowest), 4115, dip, 4140 in play. 4050 fails, we see 4010 https://t.co/sQ62Vu9P76
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Gonna watch the market for a few on a dip but I may roll on a $410 SPY Lotto for Tomorrow - see if we magnet up to 4100.perma Brew doomster said:$ES futures closed the gap with overrun searching for resistance. https://t.co/1votOOjMFV
— Disciplined Trading (@oldarmy1) December 1, 2022Yesterday, #ES_F cleared its 200dma for the 1st time & broke out a month long base. This starts a new leg - my 1st target was 4080 & cleared/backtested overnight
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) December 1, 2022
Plan today: As long as 4075-80 keeps holding (4050 backtest lowest), 4115, dip, 4140 in play. 4050 fails, we see 4010 https://t.co/sQ62Vu9P76
And when I say lotto - I am literally talking about 2 option contracts for a couple hundred. Nothing super rich.
I have a SPY line at 407.75-ish. Looking to see if it bounces there
Right there with you.SF2004 said:
Not surprising to me either after the stupid pump on a .2% reduction in CPI last month.
There is nothing good about the macro market or economy right now and this pumps. Pretty much all T/A indicators show that you should be short but I now trust none of them so my trading portfolio is exposed very little.
Just playing for a pop in volatility in the next couple of months. Tough to beat buy and hold just doing that.
Aiming for the pre-market high in the first 30. If it blows through, we are moving up to 414 IMO.
Increased volume this morning so pay attention.
Increased volume this morning so pay attention.
Fade me.
Buying 405p for next Friday. 12/9
Buying 405p for next Friday. 12/9
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
There goes "Net Clicks"
OXY... being shorted like XOM...
Tick tick tick
Tick tick tick
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Institutions trying hard to get into O&G. It wasn't fashionable if aligned with this Administration. Shorting it to drive out weak-handed players now. They missed the boat due to Green Energy politics.
I did not fade you. Already up too much to hold these. HahaFJ43 said:
Fade me.
Buying 405p for next Friday. 12/9
Interesting that Cocaine Bear the movie has been all over my twitter this morning
Damn, what timing.FJ43 said:
Fade me.
Buying 405p for next Friday. 12/9
AgEng06 said:Damn, what timing.FJ43 said:
Fade me.
Buying 405p for next Friday. 12/9
Trimmed.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
This is why. Just charts guys…
Green line is what my target is but trailing now with wide gap since next Friday expiry.
Green line is what my target is but trailing now with wide gap since next Friday expiry.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
The trendline has spoken
Spoony Love said:
Interesting that Cocaine Bear the movie has been all over my twitter this morning
So you are short with a target of 401 with a trail stop?FJ43 said:
This is why. Just charts guys…
Green line is what my target is but trailing now with wide gap since next Friday expiry.
I am trying to understand what you are staying.
Yes but I won't let the trails go nothing but largely green.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
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Thought we were talking about this one...
Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
Teddy bears today are way cooler than the ones I grew up with.Red Pear BCS Luke said:
Thought we were talking about this one...
Where was THAT cocaine bear when I was growing up?
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What a spectacular morning for scalping. I have longer term upper trendline at 408.46 at the moment, minor intraday s/r at 404.78 and 405.87 based on eatlier bounces, and model t at 402.4. Between those and the 21minute sma i feel like I'm just walking along picking up 20s
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