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SF2004
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1:20p, 11/30/22
AG
How do you even play this?

I don't want to be long or short as we are playing with two gaps.

Was thinking we may fill the lower gap to 381 and then Santa rally to 410.

Glad I am exposed very little.
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ProgN
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In reply to ProgN • 1:23p, 11/30/22
ProgN said:

Powell is aware of the yield inversion so he knows smart money already knows so I'd expect him to come out neutral tomorrow, not bearish or bullish. It's Christmas and I don't expect him to be the grinch, or Santa. He'll probably keep his market killing statements on hold until January, IMO. The market would probably take that scenario as a positive but I lean more that way than the other.
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techno-ag
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In reply to techno-ag • 1:24p, 11/30/22
AG
techno-ag said:
Had to pull the trigger on UVXY again while it's near the 52wl. Any bounce with J-POW or whatever should bring at least a little profit, one would hope.
And UVXY sets a new low today on Powell's speech. Oh well, guess I'll hold it for a while.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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1:28p, 11/30/22
AG
Are we not about to give up 2x this squeeze like on nov 2?
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topher06
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 1:28p, 11/30/22
No way that's happening this time.
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Philip J Fry
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1:29p, 11/30/22
AG
Fundamentally, what's changed? Nothing. FED is still raising rates and as far as I know, we've never bottomed while the FED was still doing damage to the economy. I'm waiting on the sidelines for a real reversal one way or another.
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Golf1
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1:32p, 11/30/22
AG
I'm guessing we hit the red line in the next couple of days. The Santa rally might push it over it which would then cause a big fall in January unless something changes.
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to SF2004 • 1:36p, 11/30/22
SF2004 said:
There was nothing good in that speech or the macro economy.

But let's pamp it!
Powell did say he wouldn't crash the economy, so there's that.....
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Golf1 • 1:42p, 11/30/22
AG


Depends on how you draw your lines. Here's mine. Seems like we are bumping up against this major resistance line with this move up.
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Lake08
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1:44p, 11/30/22
Waiting until tomorrow to write some CC's. Don't want to miss a nice little multiple day rally
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 2:03p, 11/30/22
AG
Philip J Fry said:
Fundamentally, what's changed? Nothing. FED is still raising rates and as far as I know, we've never bottomed while the FED was still doing damage to the economy. I'm waiting on the sidelines for a real reversal one way or another.
This is really more a question for Monday and Tuesday. Nothing new to drive that selloff.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 2:08p, 11/30/22
AG
Philip J Fry said:


Depends on how you draw your lines. Here's mine. Seems like we are bumping up against this major resistance line with this move up.
The trendline cometh.
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 2:10p, 11/30/22
AG
irish pete ag06 said:
ProgN said:
Put NFLX on your watchlists. It looks like it's about to go.
Jumped into these.

290 has broke!

Large gamma wall at 300 that could be a magnet.
I had to leave work to run errands and eat lunch and didn't want to babysit my 1 runner I had left... saw the pump start to happen while waiting in line to pay my property taxes and sold it for 100% figuring that the first move fakeout was coming...

just checked and this runner would have been 800%
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LMCane
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2:10p, 11/30/22
Goldman Sachs claiming yesterday there would be a rally into January..

then we would hit new lows in the first quarter 2023.

they are bearish on Big Tech
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Charismatic Megafauna
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2:11p, 11/30/22
AG
Buying (more) expiring xsp puts. We gotta give up a couple bucks into close
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 2:21p, 11/30/22
AG
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Buying (more) expiring xsp puts. We gotta give up a couple bucks into close
this is a massive squeeze. don't fight the trend friend!
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GreasenUSA
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2:34p, 11/30/22
AG
Yeah, a bit more and we're staring squarely at a MOASS.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to GreasenUSA • 2:37p, 11/30/22
GreasenUSA said:
Yeah, a bit more and we're staring squarely at a MOASS.
Give it to me
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Brewmaster • 2:43p, 11/30/22
AG
Just a word of caution. Squeezes collapse just as fast as they expand.
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irish pete ag06
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2:43p, 11/30/22
AG
Hey Farmer, did you see this?



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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to Brewmaster • 2:54p, 11/30/22
AG
perma Brew doomster said:
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Buying (more) expiring xsp puts. We gotta give up a couple bucks into close
this is a massive squeeze. don't fight the trend friend!

This is ridiculous
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 2:59p, 11/30/22
Yes sir. Didn't see that particular tweet, but other source. I mentioned in an earlier post last week or so that WTI and XOM were getting shorted out the wazoo. OPEC+ will spank the WTI shorts on Dec 4th and XOM will run to dividend payout on Dec 9th and a little after. All the while, energy continues to stack bullish points worldwide. API on Tuesday and EIA today, show massive draws on crude from last week. (And, last week's API & EIA reports had similar to report, a large draw.) Maybe the day will come when some Large Commercial player steps into the WTI contract and files a Notice for Delivery, then all the fun and games stop. WTI Futures aren't meant to be a cash market for physical delivery and there's a reason for the delivery mechanism,....but sometimes you just have to take a sinner to church instead of lunch.
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spud1910
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In reply to wanderer • 3:00p, 11/30/22
AG
wanderer said:
Glad you capitalized. I didn't play it.

Assuming you were looking at intraday? Intraday MT was 394.85 prior to the spike. SPY was bouncing back & forth right at it going into Powell's talk at 12:30.
Yeah, it was kinda crazy bouncing. I got it at about 396, price dropped dramatically as I was entering it so filled immediately and then rebounded and took off. Too bad I was playing lotto size and wanting to make sure I didn't wind up losing. They are at $11.25 now.
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SF2004
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3:15p, 11/30/22
AG
Fill that gap!
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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3:22p, 11/30/22
Adding on,...regarding that OPEC+ cut coming on Dec 4th, it may include now, or a future announced cut, the quantity that Chevron expects to harvest out of Venezuela. I don't see Chevron delivering any appreciable quantity for at least 6 months. OPEC+ will make sure the Brandon Administration will understand the message of the cut "number" when the time is right.
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Golf1
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4:19p, 11/30/22
AG
Who had SPY going from $393.6 to $408 in a day on their bingo card?
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Ag CPA
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4:38p, 11/30/22
AG
So much Twitter gold bring mined from that SBF interview right now.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 5:31p, 11/30/22
AG
Philip J Fry said:
Just a word of caution. Squeezes collapse just as fast as they expand.
maybe in a single name, but when the broader markets are going all at once like this, I think you either get out the way or ride the wave up.
I rode some calls and made good $, but kicking myself for not buying a bunch of UPRO too and just riding it.
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ProgN
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In reply to Brewmaster • 5:35p, 11/30/22
perma Brew doomster said:
Philip J Fry said:
Just a word of caution. Squeezes collapse just as fast as they expand.
maybe in a single name, but when the broader markets are going all at once like this, I think you either get out the way or ride the wave up.
I rode some calls and made good $, but kicking myself for not buying a bunch of UPRO too and just riding it.
I'm not advocating anyone buy puts and step in front of this train but the story is still negative for corporations. Layoffs are increasing as well as warnings in earnings reports. I think today was short covering and algo buying, not a positive change in the fundamentals.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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5:46p, 11/30/22
AG
My TQQQ trailing stops finally moving in the right direction.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to ProgN • 6:34p, 11/30/22
AG
I don't know. MOC was 11 B to the buy side. that volume was unreal this afternoon. I'm not saying recession canceled, 5000 S&P inbound. I just think short term this could be a nice wave up, maybe even peak out of yearly downtrend line and really throw the bears off.

It seems too that this board is too bearish. Maybe that is another reason why markets are ripping!

I'd hate to be long January and February though!

oh and from the man himself:

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$30,000 Millionaire
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7:16p, 11/30/22
AG
I expect there will be at least some retracement down tomorrow. There are many single prints that needs to fill
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:44p, 11/30/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I expect there will be at least some retracement down tomorrow. There are many single prints that needs to fill


There was similar follow up candle on Oct 14. Created a "dark cloud cover" pattern that obviously did not follow through.
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lobwedgephil
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9:44p, 11/30/22
Difference here is we are breaking out of 2 weeks of consolidation. In theory, should get follow through, but downtrend line just above, and PCE data in the morning, which is a big Fed focus. Either gives rally more fuel, or pullback.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Brewmaster • 9:49p, 11/30/22
AG
perma Brew doomster said:
Philip J Fry said:
Just a word of caution. Squeezes collapse just as fast as they expand.
maybe in a single name, but when the broader markets are going all at once like this, I think you either get out the way or ride the wave up.
I rode some calls and made good $, but kicking myself for not buying a bunch of UPRO too and just riding it.


I challenge you to go look at similar candles this year. Violent and extended moves down often followed days like today.
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