Bob Knights Liver said:

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I'm not sure I understand the question. If you think the stock will go up or at least stay sideways you can sell puts. If you think it will go up you but premiums are jacked sometimes it makes more sense to sell puts rather than buying calls. Does that answer your question?

If you think the market will go down you don't want to sell puts unless they are part of a spread or other multi-leg trade where you buy puts as well . That or if you sell puts at a strike below big support level you are confident the stock won't go.

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Positive RSI Divergence on WEEKLY SPX Chart = Bullish
- Weekly $SPX made new low
- While Weekly RSI making new high
- This positive divergence has historically preceded meaningful $SPX reversals pic.twitter.com/GPP0b7cZ6r

— Matt Cerminaro (@mattcerminaro) October 21, 2022

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I had a great week trading. Hope you all did too.

My accounts also got a great boost today from the general market move. Always nice when that happens.

We can do it just with the index ETFs. No theta, no risk of blowing out for you guys that are dummies.

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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CC09LawAg said:

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I don't want to derail this thread, but this has been on my mind and I need to know if it's crazy or just my inexperience talking…I can start a new thread if this is too much of a derail…

If I had $10k in cash and my goal was to make a 2.5% return on average daily, or average $250 a day, wouldn't that be a pretty attainable goal? And if I managed to do that over a year or two, holding on to profits, wouldn't $500 a day be pretty attainable making the same moves just with slightly more capital?

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Another slightly different perspective. You'd have to risk 5% of your capital and get a 50% return on it to get that $250 daily. I am not capable of doing this with a 100% hit rate. My success rate if I always held out for 50% would probably be 60%. So if you assume 40% of your trades stop at $-250 that means that over ten trades you would get $1,500 in profit minus $1000 in losses = $500 in profit. That's a 5% return and still excellent.

I loosely target 2% a week. What I have found is I can normally always make 0.1% to 0.2% a day without breaking any kind of emotional sweat. 1% of my account is real money and requires focus to get. My personal strategy is to go for high probability plays and then take 20% on them. I normally cut losses at -35%. My win rate is about 80%, but once something goes in my favor I normally set a stop in profit. This is different from scalping where seeing green is taking green.

So if you do the math, let's assume I deploy $10K for each trade and we take ten trades:

$10,000 * 10 * 20% * 80% = $16,000 profit
$10,000 * 10 * 35% * 20% = $7000 loss
Net profit on any given ten trades = $9000

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lobwedgephil said:

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CC09LawAg said:

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Thank you, this is exactly the type of thing I need to see. It's so much easier when I just look at the hard numbers and know I can create a method to track "big picture success" so that I don't get trapped in the moment.

And you are 100% correct, that happened to me yesterday, was up $900 and decided one more trade and it went red and I held WAY too long. Outside of luck on Monday, I will lose all my gains for yesterday and more.

Taking my lumps but really appreciate your insight.

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This is exactly why you're 250/day goal will be very difficult. Sounds like you are in a losing trade, and you are still in, will be bigger than 900 loss unless it goes your way. When you are trying for that goal, you can't have one loss take out a week of gains. You have to cut fast. Losers are part of the game, need to keep them small. Be okay losing.

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