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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I'm not sure I understand the question. If you think the stock will go up or at least stay sideways you can sell puts. If you think it will go up you but premiums are jacked sometimes it makes more sense to sell puts rather than buying calls. Does that answer your question?

If you think the market will go down you don't want to sell puts unless they are part of a spread or other multi-leg trade where you buy puts as well . That or if you sell puts at a strike below big support level you are confident the stock won't go.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Bob Knights Liver said:

I'm not sure I understand the question. If you think the stock will go up or at least stay sideways you can sell puts. If you think it will go up you but premiums are jacked sometimes it makes more sense to sell puts rather than buying calls. Does that answer your question?

If you think the market will go down you don't want to sell puts unless they are part of a spread or other multi-leg trade where you buy puts as well . That or if you sell puts at a strike below big support level you are confident the stock won't go.


That's my argument precisely. I am bullish on TLT. Hard to say but possible reversal candle today so I thought the puts he mentioned were sold not bought.
BlueTaze
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I still think we see 3200-3400, but near term setup looks strong for EOY rally to fade next year.

$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Market is forward looking. Don't forget. Case has been made for short term bottom.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I had a great week trading. Hope you all did too.

My accounts also got a great boost today from the general market move. Always nice when that happens.

We can do it just with the index ETFs. No theta, no risk of blowing out for you guys that are dummies.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Brewmaster
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AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:

I had a great week trading. Hope you all did too.

My accounts also got a great boost today from the general market move. Always nice when that happens.

We can do it just with the index ETFs. No theta, no risk of blowing out for you guys that are dummies.
Amen to that. I did this this week with SOXL, still long some, but it was in the dumpster and I followed along whale buying with commons. I also scalped Nov expiration calls for nice gains, didn't hold those overnight.

Thank you for your knowledge dropping here!
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
We are all a team!

Homework for you all is to research stonks.

If someone wants to build something in trading view in TOS for screening, I can give the requirements.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
ProgN
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

I had a great week trading. Hope you all did too.

My accounts also got a great boost today from the general market move. Always nice when that happens.

We can do it just with the index ETFs. No theta, no risk of blowing out for you guys that are dummies.
Your trading prowess and success doesn't surprise us but your posts seems brighter and more positive than before you set on your current path, and that is the best part. You and Dr. Strange should play golf and post a pic of y'all enjoying a beautiful day while we're in front of a screen. That would be cool.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I did talk to a doctor today.

Thank you. Life is good my man! Thank you.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
BaylorSpineGuy
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

I did talk to a doctor today.

Thank you. Life is good my man! Thank you.


Cheers! Congrats on your blowout week!
Ragoo
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AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:

I had a great week trading. Hope you all did too.

My accounts also got a great boost today from the general market move. Always nice when that happens.

We can do it just with the index ETFs. No theta, no risk of blowing out for you guys that are dummies.
I traveled tues-Friday this week. Made 8 trades when I had time to check and spot a trend. 5 winners 3 losers. Started the week at $1560 cash in my account and ended with 4389. All trades 0DTE SPX. The 3 losers where about $2200 total. So not taking those trades would have been a bigger week.
CC09LawAg
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I don't want to derail this thread, but this has been on my mind and I need to know if it's crazy or just my inexperience talking…I can start a new thread if this is too much of a derail…

If I had $10k in cash and my goal was to make a 2.5% return on average daily, or average $250 a day, wouldn't that be a pretty attainable goal? And if I managed to do that over a year or two, holding on to profits, wouldn't $500 a day be pretty attainable making the same moves just with slightly more capital?
Heineken-Ashi
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Every investor has this thought at some point.

Yes, it's a decent goal.

But ask yourself if you should realistically expect to 6.25x your balance ($250 daily for roughly 250 trading days) in a year during a bear market, and if so, have you identified a tried and true method for achieving that.

Because when reality plays out, very few have the discipline on winning days to be done trading. They often overdo it. And even fewer have the discipline to not trade on days where a setup doesn't exist, or to get out when an expected play turns sour. So most people will end up pretty far behind their goal within just a couple weeks.

I would get out of the thought process of a daily goal. It wires you to think you have to trade daily, or that you CAN trade daily. Most people aren't equipped to trade daily. I would start with more attainable goals that allow you time to make errors and learn along the way.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
CC09LawAg
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Thank you! You hit the nail on the head for the behavioral aspect that I am catching onto.

The main reason I am trying to set a "daily goal" is so that my brain knows "if you make $1000 today, walk away". Because I do get caught in that "wellllll just one more…" mindset.

I'm finding that discipline and psychology are my biggest roadblocks so I'm trying to give myself the tools that work for me so my brain can see the bigger picture and realize that a ton of singles is way better than swinging for the fences every day.

ETA: I guess I should say, less of a goal, more of a "hey dummy, you made $250 today so walk away, if you can do that everyday you're doing great!"
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
CC09LawAg said:

I don't want to derail this thread, but this has been on my mind and I need to know if it's crazy or just my inexperience talking…I can start a new thread if this is too much of a derail…

If I had $10k in cash and my goal was to make a 2.5% return on average daily, or average $250 a day, wouldn't that be a pretty attainable goal? And if I managed to do that over a year or two, holding on to profits, wouldn't $500 a day be pretty attainable making the same moves just with slightly more capital?


Another slightly different perspective. You'd have to risk 5% of your capital and get a 50% return on it to get that $250 daily. I am not capable of doing this with a 100% hit rate. My success rate if I always held out for 50% would probably be 60%. So if you assume 40% of your trades stop at $-250 that means that over ten trades you would get $1,500 in profit minus $1000 in losses = $500 in profit. That's a 5% return and still excellent.

I loosely target 2% a week. What I have found is I can normally always make 0.1% to 0.2% a day without breaking any kind of emotional sweat. 1% of my account is real money and requires focus to get. My personal strategy is to go for high probability plays and then take 20% on them. I normally cut losses at -35%. My win rate is about 80%, but once something goes in my favor I normally set a stop in profit. This is different from scalping where seeing green is taking green.

So if you do the math, let's assume I deploy $10K for each trade and we take ten trades:

$10,000 * 10 * 20% * 80% = $16,000 profit
$10,000 * 10 * 35% * 20% = $7000 loss
Net profit on any given ten trades = $9000



You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Walking away green isn't the hard part. Walking away red is.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
CC09LawAg
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Thank you, this is exactly the type of thing I need to see. It's so much easier when I just look at the hard numbers and know I can create a method to track "big picture success" so that I don't get trapped in the moment.

And you are 100% correct, that happened to me yesterday, was up $900 and decided one more trade and it went red and I held WAY too long. Outside of luck on Monday, I will lose all my gains for yesterday and more.

Taking my lumps but really appreciate your insight.
lobwedgephil
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CC09LawAg said:

Thank you, this is exactly the type of thing I need to see. It's so much easier when I just look at the hard numbers and know I can create a method to track "big picture success" so that I don't get trapped in the moment.

And you are 100% correct, that happened to me yesterday, was up $900 and decided one more trade and it went red and I held WAY too long. Outside of luck on Monday, I will lose all my gains for yesterday and more.

Taking my lumps but really appreciate your insight.

This is exactly why you're 250/day goal will be very difficult. Sounds like you are in a losing trade, and you are still in, will be bigger than 900 loss unless it goes your way. When you are trying for that goal, you can't have one loss take out a week of gains. You have to cut fast. Losers are part of the game, need to keep them small. Be okay losing.
Heineken-Ashi
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Having a plan is the first step to a good plan.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
FJ43
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Walking away green isn't the hard part. Walking away red is.


Once new traders learn this their account will appreciate it.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

ProgN
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FJ43 said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

Walking away green isn't the hard part. Walking away red is.


Once new traders learn this their account will appreciate it.
Once seasoned traders, who definitely know, stop letting emotions bring back those mistakes their accounts definitely appreciate it.

ETA: I plead the fifth
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
All the heavy hitters dropping nuggets on us this morning!
Appreciate it! Happy Saturday guys!
FJ43
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ProgN said:

FJ43 said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

Walking away green isn't the hard part. Walking away red is.


Once new traders learn this their account will appreciate it.
Once seasoned traders, who definitely know, stop letting emotions bring back those mistakes their accounts definitely appreciate it.

ETA: I plead the fifth


Hello pot meet kettle. We are in good company!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
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When I make mistakes it's almost always trying to milk the trade for too much. Busting my own trading rules and disciplines I posted a few years ago on here.

One reason I preach taking gains and managing losses based on trade plan level execution.

I too have my greed moments.

Write your trade plan and rules down. Simple short bullet points. You'll find most mistakes you dropped the ball.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

CC09LawAg said:

I don't want to derail this thread, but this has been on my mind and I need to know if it's crazy or just my inexperience talking…I can start a new thread if this is too much of a derail…

If I had $10k in cash and my goal was to make a 2.5% return on average daily, or average $250 a day, wouldn't that be a pretty attainable goal? And if I managed to do that over a year or two, holding on to profits, wouldn't $500 a day be pretty attainable making the same moves just with slightly more capital?


Another slightly different perspective. You'd have to risk 5% of your capital and get a 50% return on it to get that $250 daily. I am not capable of doing this with a 100% hit rate. My success rate if I always held out for 50% would probably be 60%. So if you assume 40% of your trades stop at $-250 that means that over ten trades you would get $1,500 in profit minus $1000 in losses = $500 in profit. That's a 5% return and still excellent.

I loosely target 2% a week. What I have found is I can normally always make 0.1% to 0.2% a day without breaking any kind of emotional sweat. 1% of my account is real money and requires focus to get. My personal strategy is to go for high probability plays and then take 20% on them. I normally cut losses at -35%. My win rate is about 80%, but once something goes in my favor I normally set a stop in profit. This is different from scalping where seeing green is taking green.

So if you do the math, let's assume I deploy $10K for each trade and we take ten trades:

$10,000 * 10 * 20% * 80% = $16,000 profit
$10,000 * 10 * 35% * 20% = $7000 loss
Net profit on any given ten trades = $9000






That's too much math for me. Remember some of us on here are rednecks.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

CC09LawAg
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lobwedgephil said:

CC09LawAg said:

Thank you, this is exactly the type of thing I need to see. It's so much easier when I just look at the hard numbers and know I can create a method to track "big picture success" so that I don't get trapped in the moment.

And you are 100% correct, that happened to me yesterday, was up $900 and decided one more trade and it went red and I held WAY too long. Outside of luck on Monday, I will lose all my gains for yesterday and more.

Taking my lumps but really appreciate your insight.

This is exactly why you're 250/day goal will be very difficult. Sounds like you are in a losing trade, and you are still in, will be bigger than 900 loss unless it goes your way. When you are trying for that goal, you can't have one loss take out a week of gains. You have to cut fast. Losers are part of the game, need to keep them small. Be okay losing.


Yes, I think I need to reframe it to myself as "If you have a trade that is +$250, set a stop, lock it in, be done". Not aiming for it daily but locking it in when I can and knowing that the ones that do better than that will wash out the ones where I cut losses quickly.

I think this will help me mitigate greed and (hopefully) help me drop losers more quickly.

ETA: I am dense and I think it's sinking in what you all are saying. Have any numerical goal is going to cause me to chase it so I should be more focused on having a plan and executing it and the numbers will speak to the merit of the plan.
Bird Poo
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AG
Well I bought 10k worth of RIG at 2.47. It's now sitting at 3.59. (Thank you to the person that provided that tip.)

This is where I struggle. I'm already up big, but I don't think we've seen the explosion in energy prices many on here expect.

Just take net free shares and move on? Or wait for $6.
SW AG80
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AG
That is always the big question. I have been in the market for decades and hardly ever get the right answer.
I usually sell too early and miss some profits. When I hold too long and ride it back down to a loss, I get really pissed off at myself.

It is very rare to pick the right time to sell, i.e. sell at the top. But one thing is universally true. You never go broke taking a profit.

As a proviso, I know nothing about this particular stock.
Philip J Fry
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AG
Bird Poo said:

Well I bought 10k worth of RIG at 2.47. It's now sitting at 3.59. (Thank you to the person that provided that tip.)

This is where I struggle. I'm already up big, but I don't think we've seen the explosion in energy prices many on here expect.

Just take net free shares and move on? Or wait for $6.


If you think it can run, go net free and don't look back.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Bro, nobody is fooled
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Bird Poo said:

Well I bought 10k worth of RIG at 2.47. It's now sitting at 3.59. (Thank you to the person that provided that tip.)

This is where I struggle. I'm already up big, but I don't think we've seen the explosion in energy prices many on here expect.

Just take net free shares and move on? Or wait for $6.


What the f. Sell.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
irish pete ag06
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AG
Page 5780 is some straight gold that gets pumped out of this thread on a regular basis. You folks who are profitable traders who give up your time to mentor us knuckleheads trying to figure this out, you are more appreciated than you realize.

I've been considering trying to create a conglomeration of some of the awesome material that has been shared on this thread. I've thought about just using a google doc and copy pasting, then only sharing with folks in this thread or newbs like I was a couple years ago who wander into this stuff. Kind of a greatest hits album if you will.
Philip J Fry
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AG
30K already covered it. Here's another way to look at it.

Anytime it's crossed or touched the yellow line, it's cratered soon after. Take the money and run.
frankm01
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Completely agree. Tons of good suggestions and lessons on this thread over the years. I copy and paste some of most informative ones to a Word document and review every once in a while. By far my favorite thread on TexAgs.
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