Loaded calls SPY, looking for inverse H&S here but I'm probably wrong. EDIT: Nope. Probably done for the day.
Just asymmetrical nipplesBaylorSpineGuy said:irish pete ag06 said:
ProgN's favorite formation
Looks like one should be sagging more than the other :-)
topher06 said:
Loaded calls SPY, looking for inverse H&S here but I'm probably wrong.
bmoochie said:
Low volume lunch time or algo controls?
$30,000 Millionaire said:
You guys need to be paying attention to bonds. TLT is collapsing.
Philip J Fry said:Bob Knights Liver said:
I sold almost all of the FGEN. I bought some call spreads with part of the profits in case it does pop, but wanted to derisk
I would put a tight trailing stop on it, but morning action have been volatile. Still hoping to squeeze 22 out of it.
TLT = Long term 20+ year bonds. Bond prices down = rates up. Rates for long term bonds going up is AWFUL news for the economy. We start moving from "well maybe things will come back down in a couple years" to "we saw the bottom and things will never again be like they were for the last 5 years, buckle up".wanderer said:$30,000 Millionaire said:
You guys need to be paying attention to bonds. TLT is collapsing.
I know where to find the rates for bonds https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/Heineken-Ashi said:TLT = Long term 20+ year bonds. Bond prices down = rates up. Rates for long term bonds going up is AWFUL news for the economy. We start moving from "well maybe things will come back down in a couple years" to "we saw the bottom and things will never again be like they were for the last 5 years, buckle up".wanderer said:$30,000 Millionaire said:
You guys need to be paying attention to bonds. TLT is collapsing.
All talk about the FED pausing or turning doveish is purely political gaslighting. Stop believing it.
Understanding Bond Prices and Yields (investopedia.com)LMCane said:I know where to find the rates for bonds https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/Heineken-Ashi said:TLT = Long term 20+ year bonds. Bond prices down = rates up. Rates for long term bonds going up is AWFUL news for the economy. We start moving from "well maybe things will come back down in a couple years" to "we saw the bottom and things will never again be like they were for the last 5 years, buckle up".wanderer said:$30,000 Millionaire said:
You guys need to be paying attention to bonds. TLT is collapsing.
All talk about the FED pausing or turning doveish is purely political gaslighting. Stop believing it.
and I know the inverse relation between bond prices down = rate up and vice versa.
but where is the actual bond price listed?
I have also heard some "experts" claiming that it would actually be worse for the economy if the 2 year yield of 4.5 right now DECREASES.
but it would seem logical the economy is going to collapse faster if rates continue to climb.
The money shotQuote:
Calculating a Bond's Dollar Price
A bond's dollar price represents a percentage of the bond's principal balance, otherwise known as par value. A bond is simply a loan, after all, and the principal balance, or par value, is the loan amount.1 So, if a bond is quoted at $98.90 and you were to buy a $100,000 two-year Treasury bond, you would pay ~$98,900.
In the example above, the two-year Treasury is trading at a discount. This means it is trading at less than its par value. If it were "trading at par," its price would be 100. If it were trading at a premium, its price would be greater than 100.1 Trading at a discount means the price of the bond has declined since it was issued; it is now cheaper to buy the bond than when it was issued.
To understand discount versus premium pricing, remember that when you buy a bond, you buy them for the coupon payments. While different bonds make their coupon payments at different frequencies, the payments are typically dispersed semi-annually.1
When you buy a bond, you are entitled to the percentage of the coupon that is due from the date that the trade settles until the next coupon payment date. The previous owner of the bond is entitled to the percentage of that coupon payment from the last payment date to the trade settlement date.1
Because you will be the holder of record when the actual coupon payment is made and will receive the full coupon payment, you must pay the previous owner his or her percentage of that coupon payment at the time of trade settlement.1 In other words, the actual trade settlement amount consists of the purchase price plus accrued interest.1
Understanding bonds is fundamental to understanding markets. Bonds react to the FED, yes. But that's merely because the FED directly manipulates them via forced currency injection, destruction, or playing with rates that they charge their cartel members (banks) to trade with one another. And why would one pay more or less than what banks charge each other? Hence how the FED can lead the bond market.Quote:
Considering Bond Prices (Discount vs. Premium)
Why would someone pay more than a bond's par value? The answer is simple: when the coupon rate on the bond is higher than current market interest rates, the bond is more desirable. In other words, the investor will receive interest payments from a premium-priced bond that is greater than could be found in the current market environment.2
Consider an example where a bond pays a coupon of 5%. All issuances of this bond are sold at par value. Then, macroeconomic conditions in the world worsen, and the Federal Reserve begins lower the federal funds rate. By extension, many other rates begin to drop, and the prevailing rate of interest in the market now is only 2%.
Instead of settling for 2%, investors realize they can instead try to buy the 5% bond in secondary markets. However, secondary markets often price in prevailing rates. Instead of being able to buy the bonds at par value, the bond's price has become more expensive. You'll still get your 5% coupon rate; however, you'll have overpaid for the bonds and your true yield will be closer to 2%.
The same holds true for bonds priced at a discount; they are priced at a discount because the coupon rate on the bond is below current market rates.2 Because you can earn a better return simply by buying new issuances of bonds, sellers must entice buyers to buy secondary bonds by marking their securities down to a discounted price.
What leads you to believe that the market is oversold?Golf1 said:
With the market oversold and Netflix having the run that it did after earnings, I could see TSLA running or recovering if it does end up dropping today. There's just so much volatility right now and seems like things are more likely to go up a lot vs go down.
Still think we are in a bear market but expect the market to recover some.
Lotta info hit this morn.Ccutamu said:You selling CCs after earnings?Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
XOM breaking the $102.50 (some say $102.24) barrier is a clear shot to $105. Either way,...we're going. See you at $105.
Are we there yet?
Have a great day!
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Easy trade here. Bidding on a 3785/3780 put credit spread for $3. Not filled yet.
$300 reward, $200 risk.
Agreed!$30,000 Millionaire said:
Heineken- I'm glad you're here.
likewise! now, who is Heineken? austinAg reincarnated?$30,000 Millionaire said:
Heineken- I'm glad you're here.
I thought he was Aggie Daniel?BREwmaster said:likewise! now, who is Heineken? austinAg reincarnated?$30,000 Millionaire said:
Heineken- I'm glad you're here.