BaylorSpineGuy said:

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irish pete ag06 said:

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ProgN's favorite formation

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Looks like one should be sagging more than the other :-)

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Just asymmetrical nipples

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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You guys need to be paying attention to bonds. TLT is collapsing.

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wanderer said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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You guys need to be paying attention to bonds. TLT is collapsing.

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TLT = Long term 20+ year bonds. Bond prices down = rates up. Rates for long term bonds going up is AWFUL news for the economy. We start moving from "well maybe things will come back down in a couple years" to "we saw the bottom and things will never again be like they were for the last 5 years, buckle up".

All talk about the FED pausing or turning doveish is purely political gaslighting. Stop believing it.

Looks like this is just the first phase of companies. I'm not sure how woke WWR is, which seems to be a deciding factor in how the DoE is allocating funds based on this press release (different DoE link than what's already been posted):

https://www.energy.gov/articles/biden-harris-administration-awards-28-billion-supercharge-us-manufacturing-batteries

"The funding announced today is the first phase of $7 billion in total provided by the President's Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to strengthen the domestic battery supply chain by supporting upstream materials processing to create the precursor materials for batteries. DOE anticipates moving quickly on additional funding opportunities to continue to fill gaps in and strengthen the domestic battery supply chain."

I saw someone on twitter say this...

2008 toxic asset = subrpime mortgages
2022 toxic asset = U.S. Treasuries

Probably hyperbole but still

Stop scaring me, dude.

LMCane said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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wanderer said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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You guys need to be paying attention to bonds. TLT is collapsing.

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TLT = Long term 20+ year bonds. Bond prices down = rates up. Rates for long term bonds going up is AWFUL news for the economy. We start moving from "well maybe things will come back down in a couple years" to "we saw the bottom and things will never again be like they were for the last 5 years, buckle up".

All talk about the FED pausing or turning doveish is purely political gaslighting. Stop believing it.

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I know where to find the rates for bonds https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/

and I know the inverse relation between bond prices down = rate up and vice versa.

but where is the actual bond price listed?

I have also heard some "experts" claiming that it would actually be worse for the economy if the 2 year yield of 4.5 right now DECREASES.

but it would seem logical the economy is going to collapse faster if rates continue to climb.

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Understanding Bond Prices and Yields (investopedia.com)

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Calculating a Bond's Dollar Price
A bond's dollar price represents a percentage of the bond's principal balance, otherwise known as par value. A bond is simply a loan, after all, and the principal balance, or par value, is the loan amount.1 So, if a bond is quoted at $98.90 and you were to buy a $100,000 two-year Treasury bond, you would pay ~$98,900.

In the example above, the two-year Treasury is trading at a discount. This means it is trading at less than its par value. If it were "trading at par," its price would be 100. If it were trading at a premium, its price would be greater than 100.1 Trading at a discount means the price of the bond has declined since it was issued; it is now cheaper to buy the bond than when it was issued.

To understand discount versus premium pricing, remember that when you buy a bond, you buy them for the coupon payments. While different bonds make their coupon payments at different frequencies, the payments are typically dispersed semi-annually.1

When you buy a bond, you are entitled to the percentage of the coupon that is due from the date that the trade settles until the next coupon payment date. The previous owner of the bond is entitled to the percentage of that coupon payment from the last payment date to the trade settlement date.1

Because you will be the holder of record when the actual coupon payment is made and will receive the full coupon payment, you must pay the previous owner his or her percentage of that coupon payment at the time of trade settlement.1 In other words, the actual trade settlement amount consists of the purchase price plus accrued interest.1

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The money shot

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Considering Bond Prices (Discount vs. Premium)
Why would someone pay more than a bond's par value? The answer is simple: when the coupon rate on the bond is higher than current market interest rates, the bond is more desirable. In other words, the investor will receive interest payments from a premium-priced bond that is greater than could be found in the current market environment.2

Consider an example where a bond pays a coupon of 5%. All issuances of this bond are sold at par value. Then, macroeconomic conditions in the world worsen, and the Federal Reserve begins lower the federal funds rate. By extension, many other rates begin to drop, and the prevailing rate of interest in the market now is only 2%.

Instead of settling for 2%, investors realize they can instead try to buy the 5% bond in secondary markets. However, secondary markets often price in prevailing rates. Instead of being able to buy the bonds at par value, the bond's price has become more expensive. You'll still get your 5% coupon rate; however, you'll have overpaid for the bonds and your true yield will be closer to 2%.

The same holds true for bonds priced at a discount; they are priced at a discount because the coupon rate on the bond is below current market rates.2 Because you can earn a better return simply by buying new issuances of bonds, sellers must entice buyers to buy secondary bonds by marking their securities down to a discounted price.

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Understanding bonds is fundamental to understanding markets. Bonds react to the FED, yes. But that's merely because the FED directly manipulates them via forced currency injection, destruction, or playing with rates that they charge their cartel members (banks) to trade with one another. And why would one pay more or less than what banks charge each other? Hence how the FED can lead the bond market.

But at the end of the day, bonds are traded on the open market. And even with the FED manipulating supply and demand, it's still based on what buyers and sellers EXPECT. So while the FED can attempt to move it, they do not create it and they do not lead it. The FED reacts to the market which causes ripple effects within the market. But the market leads the FED. Watch the 2-year. That's what decides what the FED will do.

And right now, the FED is attempting to push the market higher to fight inflation. The 20+ year bond yields moving up is scary because that means that the FED pushing higher isn't temporary. The actual non-government buyers and sellers within the market are expecting lower bond prices and higher yields for a LONG time into the future.

Ccutamu said:

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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XOM breaking the $102.50 (some say $102.24) barrier is a clear shot to $105. Either way,...we're going. See you at $105.

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Are we there yet?

Have a great day!

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You selling CCs after earnings?

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Lotta info hit this morn.

***Analysts updating price targets, one moved up to $114 and another to $133, both within 12 months.
***XOM Dividend - They should announce a dividend increase this quarter, I think 4 cents per quarter, 16 cents annual on top of current $0.88 annual to new annual div of $1.04. They have to be careful. This Administration has them square in the crosshairs. Any good news coming out of XOM and Brandon's goons are all over it in a negative way. I think they may announce a div increase one (1) day before earnings on 10/28. Why? There is some Govt report coming out on the 28th (I forget the importance) and this strategically spreads the good news over 2 days, lessening the chance to get vilified. Let that 28th report to carry the focus (damn, sorry I can't remember the report title name....getting old is hell) and the swirling rhetoric about he upcoming Fed Meeting Nov 1 & 2. That's my thoughts on div.
***XOM Earnings - Will be rock star status. May not be as good as historic record in Q2, but it will be close. XOM is valued at $400 billion company,...way to frickin' low. That Guyana project at low value crude is $375 billion value alone. You ready for it - XOM is really a Trillion dollar company. ....... Noted analysts have been waiting to the last minute to post earnings projections for last 4 quarters. It's a political hot potato and they don't want to appear favorable because of the Administration and their attempt to tarnish XOM. Just the way it is. The analysts earnings estimates and XOM's numbers will likely reflect "small beats", but the real numbers will be smokin' hot. The real numbers versus year-ago will be awesome and large beats. So, you have to overlook the PC-ism going on from analysts, just the way it is. ETA: I'm at $4.06 on earnings.
***Other Potpourri - Today some smart analytic group is curiously noting that the O&G sector is 4.6% weighted in DOW 30. And, suggesting it should be higher. Yeah,...should be 6%, but XOM will likely not get invited due to Brandon's focus on XOM and XOM needs a credit rating update to support a case to re-enter. Credit rating agencies are ignoring XOM,...wonder why? This Q3, XOM will build the cash war chest to over $30 billion, have great earnings, provide kickass guidance and investors will scratch their heads. Regardless, the press is picking up speed on pushing XOM in their articles. Institutions own 60% of XOM and they aren't selling. XOM is buying back $30 billion shares over 2 years (2022/2023) and that's about 1/13th of the company(was 1/12th a month ago). How long before XOM pops. I am thinking XOM will see a one day pop of $7 to $8 before the end of this calendar year. XOM and WTI,...that relationship of a +/- $3 spread is over for the time being. XOM disassociated itself from WTI. Hell, yesterday it was $17 spread and today we're at $19. XOM breakeven on crude is $41. XOM will print cash for a long time. Even if Brandon wants to fill the SPR at $67 to $72 (ha ha ha) it's a money maker for XOM.

I am going to wait until after earnings to contemplate CC's. All these late comers to XOM should begin to pile in on good news after earnings. ***BIG RED FLAG*** = Jerome Powell Meeting on Nov 1 & 2. That's a risky proposition to wait until after earnings on 10/28 with the Fed Meeting that close. ***I may shift my stance, I will update, but that's my stance now.*** Remember, Powell wants 10% unemployment and/or break the housing market and mofo is serious. Labor is the only lever he has. Heinenkandle noted in his post and I agree. This mofo ain't going doveish. I don't intend to miss the opp on CC's so I'm staying fluid because that's a cra-cra mofo in the Fed Chair. The CC's I'm looking at that work for me and my financial situation, once we get to $105 share price are, 1/29/2024 - $105's and $110's as well as the 6/21/2024 - $100's. I will not CC's my entire position. I have other financial goals I want to meet and plan to sell shares at $118 to $120. The CC's are priority one and the share selling is priority 2. If Brandon and Powell sink this market, so be it. I'll collect div's and plan accordingly. Hope this helps you.

Heineken- I'm glad you're here.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Heineken- I'm glad you're here.

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Agreed!

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Heineken- I'm glad you're here.

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likewise! now, who is Heineken? austinAg reincarnated?

I think he types way too much info to be aggiedaniel. Daniel was/is great, but he wasn't exactly wordy most of the time.