BaylorSpineGuy said:
Suspect you'll be right. Helene Meisler posted a chart on TWTR yesterday of SOX. It took 19 yrs from 2000 to make a new high. And they basically went parabolic at that time and have since come back into orbit, but it speaks to what you were saying (and AMD especially).
Microchips have been one of the most important advances in our lifetimes, and even SOX took forever to recover from previous ATH's.
Even oil has never eclipsed the price it found in the 1860s! Lol. New tech will come and identifying sector rotation will be essential to stay profitable in the coming decade!
The decade timeframe is something I no longer think as true. I have no data to back this up, but it's something that I've come to believe by almost 3 decades in the market.
The market has evolved and time frames of bull/bear/recovery times are no longer comparable to the 80's, 90's, 00's, etc. I grew up in an era that my parents bought Series EE bonds with every check and wasn't introduced to stocks until I went into the industry after graduating from A&M. Now fast forward, most young people have been raised by parents that are in the market either actively or passively (401ks, IRAs). The pool of people that put money into the market with each check has grown significantly and will continue to grow each year. How many people do you know that has stopped contributing to their 401Ks vs. people that have maxed their contributions out to take advantage of these depressed prices? This is why I disagree with your 'decade' time horizon. When the fed just says they are pausing rate increases to evaluate the effects of their aggressive rate hikes, then I think the market explodes because there is a ton of money on the sidelines that will have to be put to work. That pile of cash grows with every paycheck via 401Ks,
TL;DR version: Selloffs will increase their intensity, but recoveries will as well. Like I've posted in the past, find 3-5 technical indicators that you favor and stay disciplined. This will make you eliminate gambling/guessing and you can can profit in whatever direction the market is in.