Maybe set some alerts or keep an eye on….
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Stock Markets
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Last: 34 min ago by Talon2DSO
Maybe set some alerts or keep an eye on….
2 of your charts also explained today here
Prolonged bear markets are brutal and f'ing suck. They also drive a lot of people out of the market which is absolutely the wrong thing to do. Keep at it. Lessons learned during bear markets will benefit you in ways you're not even aware of.CC09LawAg said:
Thanks. I am still learning (a lot) and any input is appreciated.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/07/energy/opec-plus-production-slash-fury/index.htmlFarmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Today, with the Indices getting crushed, Brent and WTI showing gains/strength and holding and the rest of the O&G complex down - come Monday and Tuesday the likelihood of the O&G complex rebounding upward is high. You should be able to have your way with it regarding the CVX's.
Is CNN biz totally independent from CNN? Or d8d that guest slip thru cracks? That's the first time I have seen biden criticism on CNN.
ProgN said:Prolonged bear markets are brutal and f'ing suck. They also drive a lot of people out of the market which is absolutely the wrong thing to do. Keep at it. Lessons learned during bear markets will benefit you in ways you're not even aware of.CC09LawAg said:
Thanks. I am still learning (a lot) and any input is appreciated.
The more I think about it, this is just the beginning.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
That's not a very nice chart to post on a Saturday morning.
Here's 2008 and 2000. Before that it hadn't crossed on the monthly since 1982.
2008 and 2000 were both deep crosses.
2000 was a 50% reduction from peak to trough. It took 2 years and 5 months.
2008 was a 58% reduction from peak to trough. It took a year and 6 months.
I believe the market was different in the 50s through 1980s, but they had many crosses, some shallow and short lived (6-8 months), some longer
2008 and 2000 were both deep crosses.
2000 was a 50% reduction from peak to trough. It took 2 years and 5 months.
2008 was a 58% reduction from peak to trough. It took a year and 6 months.
I believe the market was different in the 50s through 1980s, but they had many crosses, some shallow and short lived (6-8 months), some longer
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
The 3300 level on a monthly looks like a magnet.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
1981 lasted 9 months and peak to trough was 28%
1976 was 21% and took about 6 months to bottom after the cross
1973 was 50% and took 24 months from cross to cross. Cross to bottom was about a year
1976 was 21% and took about 6 months to bottom after the cross
1973 was 50% and took 24 months from cross to cross. Cross to bottom was about a year
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I think deeper than that.
Right now, SPX has come down 25% since the peak and the cross is only 2 months old.
If you took 2008 depth, that takes us down to 2,000, which is near Covid lows.
If you took 50%, that takes us down to 2,400
3300 is a 32% dip, which may not be enough. 2,850 may be the point to start buying.
Right now, SPX has come down 25% since the peak and the cross is only 2 months old.
If you took 2008 depth, that takes us down to 2,000, which is near Covid lows.
If you took 50%, that takes us down to 2,400
3300 is a 32% dip, which may not be enough. 2,850 may be the point to start buying.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Have felt this would be a deeper and more severe correction than many have anticipated. I saw something Friday that confirmed some of this suspicion.
Lisa Abramowicz (sp?) posted something that said more retail money was deployed last week than at any other time since April 2020. That tells me capitulation is nowhere close! People are still bullish, in effect!
An ugly, ugly number would be the 200 monthly moving average. Haven't touched it since 2011. That number is around 2200. That would be an approximate 54-55% correction.
Food for thought: if they unwind QE entirely, these numbers wouldn't be so far off. I'll share one more thing: I had a dream about 1-2 months ago that one day the SPX was falling so fast I couldn't update a bid fast enough to get a limit order in cause it was falling so hard. It finally settled at SPY 90. For reference, I dreamed last month that wife and I were gonna have a baby boy, and I'm pleased to announce that next spring wife and I will have our first boy to join his three older sisters! Cheers!!
I doubt that dream comes true but it was a CLEAR and VIVID dream. Freudians can feel free to go ahead and dissect that one at will.
Happy Saturday!
Lisa Abramowicz (sp?) posted something that said more retail money was deployed last week than at any other time since April 2020. That tells me capitulation is nowhere close! People are still bullish, in effect!
An ugly, ugly number would be the 200 monthly moving average. Haven't touched it since 2011. That number is around 2200. That would be an approximate 54-55% correction.
Food for thought: if they unwind QE entirely, these numbers wouldn't be so far off. I'll share one more thing: I had a dream about 1-2 months ago that one day the SPX was falling so fast I couldn't update a bid fast enough to get a limit order in cause it was falling so hard. It finally settled at SPY 90. For reference, I dreamed last month that wife and I were gonna have a baby boy, and I'm pleased to announce that next spring wife and I will have our first boy to join his three older sisters! Cheers!!
I doubt that dream comes true but it was a CLEAR and VIVID dream. Freudians can feel free to go ahead and dissect that one at will.
Happy Saturday!
Congratulations Doc on your soon to be little boy.
ProgN said:
Congratulations Doc on your soon to be little boy.
Thanks brother!
Glad to see you'll have company when you retreat to the man cave when your 3 daughters are all emotional teenagers.
Awesome, congrats!!!
We've got #3 coming in March as well. Don't know the gender and probably will find out at delivery.
If the market keeps tanking I'll definitely be sure to get that 529 initial fund done quickly
We've got #3 coming in March as well. Don't know the gender and probably will find out at delivery.
If the market keeps tanking I'll definitely be sure to get that 529 initial fund done quickly
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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If anyone ever questioned Doc's convictions. Rolling the dice again after getting G three times is brass nuts.
Bob Knights Liver said:
If anyone ever questioned Doc's convictions. Rolling the dice again after getting G three times is brass nuts.
ROTFLMAO!! Wish I knew how to do GIF's.
The Austin Powers: "I, too, like to live dangerously". *hits while holding a 20 in blackjack*
Dude congrats!!
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
AgsMyDude said:
Awesome, congrats!!!
We've got #3 coming in March as well. Don't know the gender and probably will find out at delivery.
If the market keeps tanking I'll definitely be sure to get that 529 initial fund done quickly
Cheers to you!
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Congrats bsg and amd!
Now dream me up a winning powerball ticket! Or even an fda approval on a penny pharma!
Now dream me up a winning powerball ticket! Or even an fda approval on a penny pharma!
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
I love that you announced your new baby at the end of a prophesy of collapse of world economic systems
Charismatic Megafauna said:
I love that you announced your new baby at the end of a prophesy of collapse of world economic systems
If my economic well-being is gonna collapse (by dint of having 4 kids), I might as well wish it on all humanity lol.
Congrats to you!
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
This market this year has taken a toll on me learning trading.
I am like you all and thing that 3300 is a magnet and possibly sub 3000 but it won't get there in a straight line right?
I am like you all and thing that 3300 is a magnet and possibly sub 3000 but it won't get there in a straight line right?
SF2004 said:
This market this year has taken a toll on me learning trading.
I am like you all and thing that 3300 is a magnet and possibly sub 3000 but it won't get there in a straight line right?
Agree that it seems orderly. We have had several 2-4% sell offs in the past few weeks and no one seems to bat an eye. People claiming capitulation is close but most capital deployed in 2.5 yrs last week. People still have hope. Suspect capitulation is 10-20% away. If you deployed capital at COVID bottom, you're still up 50%!
Congrats Doc! What a blessing.
Thanks for being a part of the board and for sharing.
Thanks for being a part of the board and for sharing.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Congrats BSG!
Setting a limit buy for 90 now.
Setting a limit buy for 90 now.
Redler will sink his next round if BOS money at around 3300ish.
Lower is by all means possible.
Lower is by all means possible.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Congrats my dude!
BlueTaze said:
2 of your charts also explained today here
I'm searching for setups and value these days. There's always something with decent RR.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Congrats Doc!
Congratulations BSG!
Because I love y'all and care about your mental health to trade responsibly come Monday……
Stay off Premium and the game day thread today.
That's all…..
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Brandon's Administration will set this country back to the 18th century if they pull off NOPEC. Europe is well on their way back to the 18th century now. Europe will experience de-industrialization and move manufacturing to energy stable countries where those companies have operations (growth in the U.S.). Europe will be unable to manufacture goods with current energy prices and be competitive in a world market. Shifting the manufacturing of European product to the U.S. with a strong U.S. dollar doesn't help the cause to go export. All the extra production will not be absorbed here in the U.S. with Powell looking for 10% unemployment in the U.S. Europe runs out of Euros because companies move manufacturing (tax base), people are unemployed (tax base), no sales of European goods (tax base), no welfare, no subsidies, no natgas, no electricity and the list goes on.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/desperate-europeans-return-world-oldest-050015923.html
If Putin is overthrown, that's not bearish crude or energy. The lack of structural O&G capex spending to build for a normal 2-3% growth per year was not spent in the last 3 years. It's not going to catch-up in 12 months. Energy is in a Mega-Cycle. It will not matter if a Red Wave happens in November, energy stays strong. As long as Brandon's Administration stays hell bent on the Green Energy Steal, U.S. Big Oil is not coming to Brandon's rescue.
Regarding SPR Releases (sales in Nov of 10 million barrels). The Brandon Administration tried to make this news again in an effort to tone down OPEC+ production cut. (Nov sale was previously reported a week or 2 ago) Reports indicate 155 to 165 million barrels have shipped from the original 180 million barrels total from the SPR. (Add 10 to the 180 commitment) It appears that shipments will drag through Nov. Current SPR inventory is approx 416 mb, say 160 mb have shipped, that means 30 mb left to ship, 416 mb minus the 30 mb puts the SPR at 386 mb inventory. DOE/EIA minimum stockholding is 315 mb. So, 386 mb minus 315 mb means Brandon could Release another 71 mb anytime between now and whenever. Then Brandon HAS to stop. The SPR will need to be refilled. With the information above spelling out the inability to produce enough crude to meet demand, refilling the SPR will have to wait, but it still has to be refilled. Do you think crude will come down in price over the next 2 years? I don't.
Gov Newsome is calling for a California tax on fossil fuel companies. I posted earlier that refineries in CA are doing routine maintenance. Prices are rocketing. No other State uses the CA blend so other refineries don't make it. I say quit refining gas for CA altogether.
IMO, the safest place for your money in this market is XOM, CVX and OXY, if you want to participate. Other basics - smokes, food, telecom and alcohol are secondary segments. This is nothing new from what I've been posting, but the situation is more dire today then it was months ago.
Side note, I have a son in college now so I'm talking to a lot of folks that have kids in college too. What I am hearing from these folks is troubling to me. The parents are not using college funds to pay for school because the market is down(they are still invested in the market in those account(s)). They are using personal savings to pay college bills.....waiting on the market to go back up....then sell investments in the college fund to generate cash to pay for school. Actually, I'm not sure what I would do if I were in a similar situation. It just seems troubling to me.
Still banging my drum.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/desperate-europeans-return-world-oldest-050015923.html
If Putin is overthrown, that's not bearish crude or energy. The lack of structural O&G capex spending to build for a normal 2-3% growth per year was not spent in the last 3 years. It's not going to catch-up in 12 months. Energy is in a Mega-Cycle. It will not matter if a Red Wave happens in November, energy stays strong. As long as Brandon's Administration stays hell bent on the Green Energy Steal, U.S. Big Oil is not coming to Brandon's rescue.
Regarding SPR Releases (sales in Nov of 10 million barrels). The Brandon Administration tried to make this news again in an effort to tone down OPEC+ production cut. (Nov sale was previously reported a week or 2 ago) Reports indicate 155 to 165 million barrels have shipped from the original 180 million barrels total from the SPR. (Add 10 to the 180 commitment) It appears that shipments will drag through Nov. Current SPR inventory is approx 416 mb, say 160 mb have shipped, that means 30 mb left to ship, 416 mb minus the 30 mb puts the SPR at 386 mb inventory. DOE/EIA minimum stockholding is 315 mb. So, 386 mb minus 315 mb means Brandon could Release another 71 mb anytime between now and whenever. Then Brandon HAS to stop. The SPR will need to be refilled. With the information above spelling out the inability to produce enough crude to meet demand, refilling the SPR will have to wait, but it still has to be refilled. Do you think crude will come down in price over the next 2 years? I don't.
Gov Newsome is calling for a California tax on fossil fuel companies. I posted earlier that refineries in CA are doing routine maintenance. Prices are rocketing. No other State uses the CA blend so other refineries don't make it. I say quit refining gas for CA altogether.
IMO, the safest place for your money in this market is XOM, CVX and OXY, if you want to participate. Other basics - smokes, food, telecom and alcohol are secondary segments. This is nothing new from what I've been posting, but the situation is more dire today then it was months ago.
Side note, I have a son in college now so I'm talking to a lot of folks that have kids in college too. What I am hearing from these folks is troubling to me. The parents are not using college funds to pay for school because the market is down(they are still invested in the market in those account(s)). They are using personal savings to pay college bills.....waiting on the market to go back up....then sell investments in the college fund to generate cash to pay for school. Actually, I'm not sure what I would do if I were in a similar situation. It just seems troubling to me.
Still banging my drum.
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