The amount of chatter from the random people in our offices of "what are you doing with your 401k" leads me to believe capitulation must be near.

I don't have visibility to this, but would love to see the moves of people switching to Guaranteed Income fund or similar out of their age-based funds AFTER this drop.

Some lady came to our office yesterday and was lamenting how much things fell. She was a media person doing some video for our office. Imagine we are close.

I don't think we are close. I think those people are the easy marks that don't trust the stock market.

You need the people that are blind believers to buying and holding give up at the 11th hour by going into "salvage" mode.

Every month since June we've been told that we've likely seen peak inflation. That the FED will have to change course. Then the Brits do the stupidest thing possible and turn completely doveish in a time where they literally can't afford to be wrong. And what does the media and "smart money" start saying? "This is a sign that major central banks are starting to see lower real inflation and reverse course". Why are they saying this and why are they happy? Is it like.. because they want to see stocks go up? No. They are trying to convince you.. the general sucker.. to pour your money back in so they can turn around and short it again. There's no money to be made in oversold choppiness. But if they can get you to believe things are going to be better, they can steal some more of your money.

Things aren't getting better. We've had falling oil and general inflation indicators STILL haven't gotten better. What makes you think things will be better when oil and commodities start to rise again?

Capitulation doesn't happen at a double bottom (lower low to be specific), in a time where the general trader realized they had been lied to about bettering conditions. No. Last week was not the end. And we are not near capitulation.

The trend is down and any upside is considered a relief bounce until a real, upward, daily or weekly trend emerges.

For a good capitulation example, the week before Christmas 2018 is a pretty good one. In a lot of ways, this whole year looks similar to Q4 2018 - just stretched out over a whole year instead of a quarter.

In that parallel universe, think SPX 3000-3200 by late next week or early the next. Or we could be like late November 2018 and rally back to 4000-4250 to suck in buyers again before the final plunge. We should know pretty soon (3700 looks like the pivot set up). Volume has certainly picked up throughout September as well. Who knows - tough market - need to get the weenies out and back to their miserable day jobs.

I'm in, beer man!
Friday puts if we go green this morning?

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

I'm in, beer man!
Friday puts if we go green this morning?

---

No bro, that's not what he's saying. You would buy puts on a rejection of supply / resistance or a loss of demand / support. For example, 3730 on e-mini.

This zone right here, 3660 - 3720 has been the magnet zone for most of the last 4 trading sessions. If you wanted to trade this range, you would sell premium on either end of the box.

I personally think sellers are short term tired and a relief bounce to the 3800s is needed to reload and reset the clock. I think 3400 is the minimum of downside, with a retest of pre Covid highs a likely spot to be willing to go long and then hold through pain.

I see people say Covid lows or 1800. I just don't think so. 2750 is my thinking on max downside. I think going nuclear long at 3100 would be OK. That's 35% from the peak and the upside would be the favored setup there on a longer horizon.

Personal consumption gets reported tomorrow and it sort of looks like that will be used as a trigger to drive a directional move.

It's okay not to trade.

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

I'm in, beer man!
Friday puts if we go green this morning?

---

Don't guess. Follow the trend.

https://i.imgur.com/NQ2nYbt.jpg

Yesterday gave us a red indecision candle. We need to see a green reversal candle before any bets to the upside. We then need to break the first yellow line to feel confident in an extended bounce. Break the second line and we are in a full blown bear market bounce. Break the third line and we are bullish.

But as of now, if you were already invested to the downside, the indecision candle yesterday either puts you on exit alert or you already got out. If today is red with no upper wick, you either stay in or reinvest downward. If it's green, wait for 3 solid uptrend candles with no down wicks and invest bullish ready to get out at first indecision.

Charts suggest it's time to 'hold your nose and buy something,' Jim Cramer has said.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 29, 2022

Is this the signal?

This guy is such a b @stard. Fleeces retail on the daily. What chart is he looking at?!? Buy and sell tomorrow?

Lmao. I've been waiting for this. 135 soon.

Thanks for the guidance heinie and 30k, right now I'm mostly proud of myself for not opening any new longs yesterday

Buying more TQQQ.