Heineken-Ashi said:
The beer candles show September is an indecisive month. October will be critical. An October red candle with no upper wick will confirm a resuming of downward trend. The overall monthly structure will be most comparable to Q3/Q4 of 2008 where the market moved significantly lower by about 700 points over the next 9 months. Remember when using comparisons to look at previous bear markets only. Downtrends in bull markets do not relate just as uptrends in bull markets cannot be compared to uptrends in bear markets.
On the weekly, we are already in a resumed downtrend, but there is hope due to an indecisive red candle sandwiched between two downtrend red candles a couple weeks ago that can sometimes signify a round bottom on the horizon.
Don't bet against the trend in the short term. It's a sure fire way to lose money. Don't try to time the bottom for long term investing. What will you gain over someone who lets a bottom and reversal upward confirm? It's not enough to justify the risk. The idea of a perfect entry is sexy but you could be drowning yourself in you beer if you aren't right.
Let a daily uptrend form. Let it turn into a confirmed weekly trend. If the daily is still active, then jump in and place a strategic stop not far below. You don't jump out until the weekly becomes indecisive or you get stopped.
Day traders can still trade the daily trends. Quick stops are your best friend in bear markets. The lower bounds are far more limited than in uptrends and markets tend to bottom faster than they can top while uptrends can tend to reverse very quickly.
Really enjoyed this take
