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Charismatic Megafauna
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Heineken-Ashi said:

The beer candles show September is an indecisive month. October will be critical. An October red candle with no upper wick will confirm a resuming of downward trend. The overall monthly structure will be most comparable to Q3/Q4 of 2008 where the market moved significantly lower by about 700 points over the next 9 months. Remember when using comparisons to look at previous bear markets only. Downtrends in bull markets do not relate just as uptrends in bull markets cannot be compared to uptrends in bear markets.



On the weekly, we are already in a resumed downtrend, but there is hope due to an indecisive red candle sandwiched between two downtrend red candles a couple weeks ago that can sometimes signify a round bottom on the horizon.

Don't bet against the trend in the short term. It's a sure fire way to lose money. Don't try to time the bottom for long term investing. What will you gain over someone who lets a bottom and reversal upward confirm? It's not enough to justify the risk. The idea of a perfect entry is sexy but you could be drowning yourself in you beer if you aren't right.

Let a daily uptrend form. Let it turn into a confirmed weekly trend. If the daily is still active, then jump in and place a strategic stop not far below. You don't jump out until the weekly becomes indecisive or you get stopped.

Day traders can still trade the daily trends. Quick stops are your best friend in bear markets. The lower bounds are far more limited than in uptrends and markets tend to bottom faster than they can top while uptrends can tend to reverse very quickly.

Really enjoyed this take
BaylorSpineGuy
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I cut everything except 1 FSLR put and 1 10/07 365 SPY put. Made some good scratch this week. Getting better and feeling confident but not cocky.
Charismatic Megafauna
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This was definitely your week! Glad you had time to trade it!
BaylorSpineGuy
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

This was definitely your week! Glad you had time to trade it!


Thanks! Everyone here has boosted my confidence and reaffirmed my thesis.

I missed the bottom today during a lumbar disc but closed my positions after I got out.

Between cases, I rolled my 10/14 puts down to 10/06, same strike, after it broke down from the Darvas box.
FJ43
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I have some buys set GTC/AH on DNN at 1.01 and .97

Don't know if it gets there but we shall see.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

BlueTaze
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What would it take for yall to get bullish on oil?
Been watching RIG, thinking about dabbling in some Jan 23' calls.
BlueTaze
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Bearish?
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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L.O.L.
FishrCoAg
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Charismatic Megafauna said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

The beer candles show September is an indecisive month. October will be critical. An October red candle with no upper wick will confirm a resuming of downward trend. The overall monthly structure will be most comparable to Q3/Q4 of 2008 where the market moved significantly lower by about 700 points over the next 9 months. Remember when using comparisons to look at previous bear markets only. Downtrends in bull markets do not relate just as uptrends in bull markets cannot be compared to uptrends in bear markets.



On the weekly, we are already in a resumed downtrend, but there is hope due to an indecisive red candle sandwiched between two downtrend red candles a couple weeks ago that can sometimes signify a round bottom on the horizon.

Don't bet against the trend in the short term. It's a sure fire way to lose money. Don't try to time the bottom for long term investing. What will you gain over someone who lets a bottom and reversal upward confirm? It's not enough to justify the risk. The idea of a perfect entry is sexy but you could be drowning yourself in you beer if you aren't right.

Let a daily uptrend form. Let it turn into a confirmed weekly trend. If the daily is still active, then jump in and place a strategic stop not far below. You don't jump out until the weekly becomes indecisive or you get stopped.

Day traders can still trade the daily trends. Quick stops are your best friend in bear markets. The lower bounds are far more limited than in uptrends and markets tend to bottom faster than they can top while uptrends can tend to reverse very quickly.

Really enjoyed this take


Getting close to a model T from the high?
FJ43
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Sadly if they say it enough there are enough sheep that will follow.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

ProgN
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FJ43
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Hmmmm interesting chart given recent macros…..

POSH

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

insulator_king
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Looking at $ENVX

18.52-1.27 (-6.42%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
18.11 -0.41 (-2.21%)
After hours: 07:51PM EDT
ranchag04
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BlueTaze said:



Bearish?


These people are nuts…..reading California has banned natural gas appliances by 2030. Great, put more strain on your grid you fools.
sts7049
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ranchag04 said:

BlueTaze said:



Bearish?


These people are nuts…..reading California has banned natural gas appliances by 2030. Great, put more strain on your grid you fools.


it's a proposal, hasn't been voted on yet.
Lake08
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KJP is without a doubt the dumbest human on the planet. I wonder why she got that job??? Hmmmmm
BaylorSpineGuy
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Unconfirmed reports this morning that President Xi has been placed on house arrest and is no longer in control of the PLA.

Still early and nothing confirmed but wow if true.

Also, I listened to some Italian leaders saying things like "Putin was forced into this…". Sounds like someone is petitioning for some natural gas and oil. How long till Germany echoes these sentiments?

Starting to see the battle lines being drawn…

sts7049
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let's be careful with twitter rumors and no context videos
BaylorSpineGuy
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sts7049 said:

let's be careful with twitter rumors and no context videos


Yes, fair. I did do some independent Google news searches as well and some small Asian outlets were reporting things but nothing corroborated or confirmed. Wasn't trying to pump $ hit on here. Sorry if misleading or wrong.
lobwedgephil
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

sts7049 said:

let's be careful with twitter rumors and no context videos


Yes, fair. I did do some independent Google news searches as well and some small Asian outlets were reporting things but nothing corroborated or confirmed. Wasn't trying to pump $ hit on here. Sorry if misleading or wrong.
News came out mid day yesterday. Market would have collapsed if true.
FJ43
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Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

BaylorSpineGuy
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sts7049
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AG
BaylorSpineGuy
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Yes and CME halted trading on the GBP. Friday looking like a hook close if this holds and more downward pressure on SPX/Y.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Couldn't pass on this:

SF2004
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FJ43 said:


Am I reading this correctly?

If we break 3700 and it holds then we rally a little to possibly 3820...

If it rejects then we dump?

If so and I am looking at the chart correctly it looks like 3700 rejected right at open.

So elevator down?
$30,000 Millionaire
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Doesn't work quite like that. I'd pay more attention to Fridays low and whatever the overnight low is.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Someone posted on TWTR: "This is one of those weeks where decades happen."

Really starting to feel like that. Italian far-right PM taking over, GBP in a free fall, China calling for its state banks to buy equities to halt selling. And it's only Sunday night…
FJ43
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Mornun!

US - Red
EU - Mixed
Asia - Red

VIX at 32

Just my 2 cents be patient dont get trapped. It's a trading market. There is lower to go if it wants. Feels like we are due for at least a dead cat bounce.

Trade wisely!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
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Possible trade. I'll be taking this one at some point.

VIX puts on a push over 32. Out to Oct monthly or even November. For me 27-30p.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

sts7049
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SF2004 said:

FJ43 said:


Am I reading this correctly?

If we break 3700 and it holds then we rally a little to possibly 3820...

If it rejects then we dump?

If so and I am looking at the chart correctly it looks like 3700 rejected right at open.

So elevator down?
you're on the right track but it's not that simple. you have to also account for how it's breaking and reacting.

overnight for example, it's still floating around between 3680-3710, so this range hasn't picked a direction yet one way or the other in my eyes.
FJ43
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Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

DeangeloVickers
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Lets get weird
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Sponsor
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DeangeloVickers said:



Lets get weird


Cue Titanic Theme Song
$30,000 Millionaire
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Fridays lows tested overnight a couple of times. My bias at this second is up.
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