sts7049 said:

---

you need to order one of these

---

I guess. Certainly understand that no one knows what the FOMC will do (other than probably Pelosi), but people have occasionally posted that "the market is now pricing in a ___% of a 100bp hike".

Charismatic Megafauna said:

---

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

---

I'll keep this apolitical -

The radical liberals...

---

Lol!

---

He couldn't help himself.

Triple_Bagger said:

---

SAVA

SEC Case Closing Recommendation Made, Per SEC Guidelines Case Closing Recommendation Is Made When 'No Enforcement Action Will Be Recommended' And 'So Resources Can Be Redirected To Investigations That Will Be More Productive.' See SEC Enforcement Manual

BENZINGA 10:07 AM ET 9/20/2022

---

Thanks for posting that, I hadn't seen it. So with that in mind it seems likely IMO this elevated green volume is just shorts closing. This takes away the chance for a big short payout until PH3 results are released, so why hold on to short position in the meantime.

topher06 said:

---

sts7049 said:

---

you need to order one of these

---

I guess. Certainly understand that no one knows what the FOMC will do (other than probably Pelosi), but people have occasionally posted that "the market is now pricing in a ___% of a 100bp hike".

---

people who say that are just speculating. there isn't any way to know the answer to this.

The CUNY investigation into Dr Wang is still ongoing I believe. His research is what Simufilam is based on, so there might still be some shorts holding out hope for this to go to $0.

Re entered LABU for a swing. Entry 8.01. Want $9+

Gonna be angry if we don't get to 4000 today

Why that level?

Brian Earl Spilner said:

---

Why that level?

---

Joke my man.

Conditions are here to rally.

3920 is the highest I think is possible today.

Agreed. Bought in UPRO heavy at 35.5. LFG.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

---

3920 is the highest I think is possible today.

---

that would be a pretty significant rally

GOLD down big today? News leaked of rate hike?

$30,000 Millionaire said:

---

I'm going to give a trade idea where it's pretty much impossible to lose money. Keep it on the board please. I'm not taking this because I can do better but for the ultra conservative types this is good.

Buy LABU at $8. Sell Jan 24 3C for $6. 12% guaranteed return with exceptionally low risk. You could also sell the 4P but I like the other side better.

---

Am I analyzing this correct? Assuming 1 contract.

Buy at 100 LABU @ $8 = ($800)
Sell Jan 24 3C @$6 = $600
If called, Sell 100 LABU @$3 = $300 for a 12% return (~9.25% annualized)

If not called because it fell to the floor, breakeven price on the trade in Jan 2024 is $2.00 (excluding commissions). Below $2 is the only way you lose money on this trade on paper (but you still own the ETF)

BaylorSpineGuy said:

---

GOLD down big today? News leaked of rate hike?

---

Yes, it's 75bps

sts7049 said:

---

topher06 said:

---

sts7049 said:

---

you need to order one of these

---

I guess. Certainly understand that no one knows what the FOMC will do (other than probably Pelosi), but people have occasionally posted that "the market is now pricing in a ___% of a 100bp hike".

---

people who say that are just speculating. there isn't any way to know the answer to this.

---

Don't you just look at the WIRP function on bloomberg for a pretty good indication of the fed funds futures market sentiment? It isn't going to differ vastly from the equities market and what they have baked in.

Well there goes that.

You got it.

As 30k mentioned there can be slight variations of this if you'd want. (different exp date, different strike price)

I'm so glad I sold all of my puts when SPY was floating around 384

Too much expectation of a 75 pt hike. Fed is going to bring the hammer with a 100 pt hike. I can feel it.

FJ43 said:

---

Sold all SPY calls expiring Wed into close and took the profit.

Only buy was Oct monthly VIX 28c into close.

---

Just to post how I work this VIX since there has been discussion on it.

I took off 25% of calls for 25% gain here. Oct monthly expiry so time on my side. I may take more off in this area and bank profits and either set a trail or let ride.

My job is to protect my capital, mitigate losses and take profits. That's how I approach "trading" SPY and VIX which at any given time I almost always have one or the other on long or short.

Both of those narratives sound like ****. Nothing is priced in. Fed is gonna crush rampant speculation. Only way to do that is rate hikes. People can't be convinced otherwise. This is following a very typical/classic script.

That said, I'm not trading the Fed move tomorrow. Could rally, could tank and I'm not confident in the way anything moves. If it rallies, I'll look for a reversal in the mid to upper 390s. If it breaks below 378-380, I'll go short.

I'm puzzled as to what will happen and I'm not gonna burn capital guessing. Easier ways to make money.

Quote:

---

Too much expectation of a 75 pt hike. Fed is going to bring the hammer with a 100 pt hike. I can feel it.

---

I bet they stick with 75. But, they do need to stop the optimism somehow if they expect inflation to calm. I wouldn't be surprised if they do 75 and then come out with some sort of mid-cycle surprise rate hike between now and the end of the year. That will get more attention than 100 now.