At Mancini support level of 3850-3860.

We have spent a lot of time in this zone. Chop city.

i'm taking a small long here on MES. a bit of a gamble, but seems like the level is holding up.

sts7049 said:

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i'm taking a small long here on MES. a bit of a gamble, but seems like the level is holding up.

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Personally would have waited for 3870, but might work. Good luck.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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We have spent a lot of time in this zone. Chop city.

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Agreed. I expect a lot of chop today and tomorrow. It might be big, intraday tradable chop, though.

If Fed does stock with the 75 bps rose, what are the chances for another little squeeze with downside hedges being closed and so many folks positioned heavily to the short side?

Look at positive RSI divergence. Pretty high IMO.

Scalped some SPX calls for a bit over 13% gain. I probably could have held on for more to get back to the middle of the channel, but that was good for me. I'm done trading until later this afternoon.

sts7049 said:

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i'm taking a small long here on MES. a bit of a gamble, but seems like the level is holding up.

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out for a 10% scalp

Bob Knights Liver said:

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Scalped some SPX calls for a bit over 13% gain. I probably could have held on for more to get back to the middle of the channel, but that was good for me. I'm done trading until later this afternoon.

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did the same but with SPY

and I like this...

So much negative sentiment towards tech stocks. I'd place some options into Friday week expiration for a post-fed rally.

— Freedom Costs More Than Being Concerned... (@oldarmy1) September 19, 2022

Spy does not seem like it wants to slow down

Almost like it wants to fill the gap.

If it does, I would expect it to cool down and chop until Fed comments

Model T around 397-398 range on SPY.

Golf1 said:

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Spy does not seem like it wants to slow down

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Showing indecision and potential reversal from downward to upward intraday while solid downtrend daily and weekly. Has not confirmed anything. Until the 4hr beer candle flips to green I'm on sideline. 2hr is fighting red and green currently.

Is that from the high on 9/12 - the low today?

Yes….I think it touched 415 in premarket that day, so maybe slightly higher but the intraday Model T is around 397-8. It usually flashes above. I sat this rally out but will layer in puts starting in that range and add every few dollars.

Thanks for the explaining. I'm still not used to picking a good timeframe for model-t.

VERU's EUA meeting has been pushed back a month by the FDA.
That coupled with Biden's declaration that COVID is over has lead to it falling today, if you happen to still be in it.

The caveat here is that 382.11 is a true bottom. Some evidence for that since it made a hammer candle on Friday.

You're welcome!

Completely on the sidelines on options right now, other than the GOLD LEAPs and some sold covered calls that I should maybe consider buying back cause they're all way up (but well offset by depressed underlying prices). No real clue how the Fed is going to act here, they are in a really tough spot.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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The caveat here is that 382.11 is a true bottom. Some evidence for that since it made a hammer candle on Friday.

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Dude you're learning things, keep it up! that or I am too, lol. I also have 384 as an area of interest.

Sometimes hard to spot a bottom but that low 382 level is defended. Anyone at Links Fore Kids today in Las Colinas?

If so, Holler.

Anyone considering an FOMC straddle?

My fear on that is a 100 bps will pay majorly on the put side... but I could see the market non-reacting to 75.

Come on PED. Let's get that momentum.

I don't think the market would react to 75bps. Isn't that already 100% priced in, with 100bps slightly priced in? Don't think anyone expects 50bps or lower.

Premiums are juiced right now too, might consider covering up my remaining SPY shares.

irish pete ag06 said:

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Anyone considering an FOMC straddle?

My fear on that is a 100 bps will pay majorly on the put side... but I could see the market non-reacting to 75.

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I been thinking similar type play with an otm strangle. Potential for big moves that would cause these to work. I will close the bad leg and not ride it to zero once a direction is confirmed.

interesting fibs qqq:
11:07 intraday bounced of the model T low march 2020 to Nov 2021 high 286.82. Price went to 286.85, close enough. It was also a perfect 70% (286.85) retrace of todays 0500 low (285.50) to high 289.99. 70 is not a normal fib number but it is a nice round number next to a larger time frame model T. I missed it and only noticed after the fact.

BREwmaster said:

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BaylorSpineGuy said:

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The caveat here is that 382.11 is a true bottom. Some evidence for that since it made a hammer candle on Friday.

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Dude you're learning things, keep it up! that or I am too, lol. I also have 384 as an area of interest.

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I had a resistance line from Friday @ about $384.31 on the 15min $SPY. Once it cleared that during first 15 min today it's held it every time it pushes down.

topher06 said:

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I don't think the market would react to 75bps. Isn't that already 100% priced in, with 100bps slightly priced in? Don't think anyone expects 50bps or lower.

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If 75 bps, it's possible there's not much reaction. It's also possible that enough volume hedged to the downside in case of a 100bps hike that when they close out those we'll see a move up. If too many are overextended short, that could cause a bit of a squeeze and further push the indexes higher. Just a possibility at this point, but something to make sure we're prepared for. IMO the big takeaway is just not to go full bear here because there is a plausible short-term bull thesis for now.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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topher06 said:

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I don't think the market would react to 75bps. Isn't that already 100% priced in, with 100bps slightly priced in? Don't think anyone expects 50bps or lower.

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If 75 bps, it's possible there's not much reaction. It's also possible that enough volume hedged to the downside in case of a 100bps hike that when they close out those we'll see a move up. If too many are overextended short, that could cause a bit of a squeeze and further push the indexes higher. Just a possibility at this point, but something to make sure we're prepared for. IMO the big takeaway is just not to go full bear here because there is a plausible short-term bull thesis for now.

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I did go ahead and enter some January 2023 SPY 425 calls, but sold 10/21 410 calls on my long SPY shares. Absent the 100bps rate hike, I do think there should be some bias upside here because I continue to think last week was an overreaction, but don't have much confidence in the macro economy. Suck at technical analysis though, so this is just my opinion on fundamentals.

EDIT: I may not end up holding the SPY calls overnight even with the long expiry if we get some upward momentum into close. Up 6% on these, which doesn't suck as I was anticipating needing some good (or not as bad as possible) news from the Fed. Obviously, even the long expiration options move quickly so 6% can be gone in a minute.

LABU rejected a bit near $8. I think it will clear. I'd like at least $8.4 before I take profit.