FJ43 said:

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I feel like I should post this.....

Y'all see me actively trading options. I've learned to be disciplined with my style/system, trade plan and execution but it took lots of red ink years ago to gain that wisdom. Options are NOT for everyone and I do not recommend it unless you apply yourself. While I take a few that are possible home runs the vast majority are high probability for singles, doubles and occasions home runs. I flat love the rush of options trading.

I do not full port options or any trade. I manage risk and work to manage the trade green scaling out. I've learned I don't need the trades full potential just the meat. I set trailing stops when green at certain levels. And above all else get out when your trade plan says to.

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Valuable lessons here.

Appreciate the share. Why I love this board. I know I told my story about my dad being way too big in tech and stuck in ICU.

In one week, he should be in a full rehab facility to get stronger. In one month, he will be home! Incredible watching how far he has come in the last week from not eating and walking to now eating full meals and taking 50 steps at a time!

I have sold 450 of his 1000 shares of Apple (along with the other tech plays) at a $170 average to allow a $75k cash position and diversify his portfolio into retirement dividend plays (5% or higher annual). I feel I got him a good ROI by selling a good chunk now, and the rest can be done with as he pleases

He will not be thrilled about the loss of shares but he pays zero taxes in long term gains due to his other massive tech losses. I'm hopeful he can look at all this and decide to use a broker to help handle his money and continue to diversify his holdings.

SoTXAg09 said:

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$META add another watch for call entry. Breaks $170 enter Sept 2 $180's.

— Freedom Costs More Than Being Concerned... (@oldarmy1) August 18, 2022

OA talked about buying META Calls, but it looks to be in a Darvas box. Thoughts?

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You'll note that target was Model T, so no reason to buy until there, but I followed on with a blanket tweet l, well ahead of this and others saying to ignore all Model T targets when the coiled macro's broke to the downside. Now I'd look at the 75 FIB retracements for initial entries instead of 50% Model T.

There is a $419 area likely bounce but I think it quickly gets lost into FJ's chart. Good job on the charting there. Mainly, once we've entered a downtrend the first thing I look at is gaps. Coordinate targets with gap fill overruns (don't forget they almost always flash below and that is your execution point).

Also, the band bounces oost gap-fill are very tradable, but you trim on the initial big move up, especially if there are more gaps below - and on the macros there are!

I always shoot for 75% success rate on options. This last run up I went 12 for 12 because, like I tried to teach people, the easiest money to be made is the initial reversal stage. Trading against the left chart-side downtrend upward is almost too easy to believe. One of my main tweets was letting people know that most are sitting on their hands as it happens. I was 100% positive of the bottom and traded accordingly.

Exact opposite after spotting and trading the initial warning drop several days back. I tweeted and reiterated that there was no reason to be entering stocks there. I went fishing as my sitting on my hands discipline. Puts in place and waiting to see which way the pennant tip broke. Once it technically broke my tweets were more about how most traders exit puts way too soon. The money comes in fast and furious and I get the temptation. Once up 50% then go for a trim but nearly every DM or tweet reply was people saying they had closed out for a nice gain. They missed up to 300% more gains.

OA chiming in with nuggets on a Saturday morning.

Is the band getting back together? When the triplets (McInnis clan) is back posting it may be an official tour.

If you are new to trading options or trading in general, for the love of all things sane (and your capital) do not trade weeklies or even worse 0DTE (same day expiration). Go out a ways (month+) on expirations to learn.

Weekly and 0DTE IMO should be for experienced traders with solid execution skills. Unless you just like pain…

irish pete ag06 said:

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Thank you so much for sharing

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Markets love to go from red futures to green for several days for conditioning and creating buyers that then become trapped, when they don't understand technical's. This is my warning reminder I had given Thursday.

I said if bright red $SPY don't expect it to come back. If we aren't within the low coiled wedge by the first 30-45minutes then forget all my buy targets and know your macro Model T for determining new entries.

— Freedom Costs More Than Being Concerned... (@oldarmy1) August 19, 2022

Don't fight the tape. Once we broke the pennant downward you go with it hard. We did the same thing the opposite direction from the 2 previous breakout waves upward. Most people close out WAY too soon after a coiling period. Big money doesn't move for dimes. They move for $100's

— Freedom Costs More Than Being Concerned... (@oldarmy1) August 19, 2022

When you see chop exit trades and, if jot already hedged, get there. And don't trade just to trade! I violated my own discipline by buying small SHOP calls when it came below Model T. Sure enough it bounced hut then rushed to new lows. Lost $460 when exited from a $240 gain in less than 30 seconds. LOL

What'd I say. Don't trade just to trade. https://t.co/y9afpAnt0I pic.twitter.com/qZ2VhxptO8

— Freedom Costs More Than Being Concerned... (@oldarmy1) August 18, 2022

Study the daily charts over the last week against all of this, to improve your ability to spot similar set ups. These macro ones happen more often than individual stocks, but individual stocks generally react in turn.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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59 South said:

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Hey 30k, since you're taking some time away... any chance you'd moonlight an hour or 2 as a career counselor compensated in the currency of your choice? Your insight into the corporate world is impressive.

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Bro, I'll just give you my cell phone number and we can chat. You're an ag, but I would never charge for that anyway.

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Over here it is called your mo-bile sir

In all seriousness though, I may take you up on your offer soonish...

As for you and Prog's other comments, I would probably have to put my 6 yr old on the line. Unlike her old man she can speak in several different accents almost to perfection and will often ask which one you prefer for the conversation.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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We're going to touch this line this week.

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Could you draw it lower for a friend mine?

Philip J Fry said:

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Every trader should watch this. He uses several of the same indicators I've used for years. Some are very technical, and I don't post on them, but they assist me in entry/exit targets.

With nearly every stock being discussed achieving Model T his flush then bounce readings should be in mind. It's why I initially had listed all those stocks for entry. I expect a bounce but since we are at the upper end of the channel, I want confirmation before entering. If we were at the lower end then I'd have been accumulating shares/options Friday into the close and just added if we have a red premarket/opening Monday.

This is really basic thought process in determining how much you risk. I tweeted I would like to see one more push upward to really load up on puts. My largest position entered Thursday was 100 $420 Sept 2 SPY puts. I also layered 50 cheap $426 expiring puts in case we broke down. Premarket you'll see I tweeted buying 25% shares against those just in case the market rallied. At the open I said I wanted out of those shares and enter cheap calls as the possible point breaking up. I wanted out of shares no matter what, to limit risk but still have some upside offset to larger downside thinking - again, due to readings similar to what the video is showing.

I lost $0.62/option on the calls entered when selling shares. But the $426 puts went to nearly $5 for a net big score. I tweeted the exit of those on the $422 breaking. I also sold 25 of the 100 Sept Puts.

Another thing to look at on his video is the divergence green/red dots. Count how many dots, representing days, it can take to play out. This is why people saying to go out far enough on options are giving you great info. It's why most options I give I stick with through early losses. I'm reading eventual likelihood based on the model.

Another thing about the dot indicators. Notice the linear dots. You have 3 dots and 4 dots at times horizontally. Generally, it's during a consolidation or divergence period. When you 4+ dots be thinking confirmation of direction that hasn't even happened yet. 4+ green dots = it's got more move to make upward. 4+ red dots = get out/buy puts.

He does a good job showing the overall picture. Not sure if he ever gets granular with making trade calls or just lets people use the info.

FJ43 said:

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59 South said:

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I'll piggy back onto FJ's chart as I've been doing some homework today... here's my pathway to sweet victory or defeat (propose the $100 gets paid to charity either way - anybody else want to pick a side and make the same $100 pledge either way???)



Ok, I'm off to finish prepping chicken fajita enchiladas for Mama with the assistance of my multi-accent daughter (time for Spanish practice). You old farts have a good weekend!

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Put me down for $100 to charity for the downside. How low don't know. Double top 430 incoming?

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I'm in! $100 to charity picked by whoever wins. The education and entertainment value make it a bargain.

It won't have any bearing on the market.

I'm more pissed about how much our billions in aid is being stolen by politicians in Ukraine.

This x 1,000,000. Stupid we send them Blank checks and weapons they could never develop on their own only to prolong a seemingly invariable outcome. Mindless leadership. Oh well, back to stocks.

Don't wanna get banned on a forum in which I am a guest lol.

Remember AAPL peaked in Sept 3 last year then went down for the month. Per Karsan, Sept OpEx (much like March OpEx) tends to be quite bearish while June and Dec OpEx tend to have more bullish flow. Next month OpEx in conjunction with a Fed rate hike could really slug the market.