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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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It's not a very developed box, with only touching the top once. It could end up giving us that W shape, but I think that's going to need to have bullish market direction to do so. If the market starts confirming that this week was OPEX shenanigans with needed consolidation, and we start running green, then it might be good to begin legging into some calls. Maybe buy most if we break that 184 area?
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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My trading plan for next week, which could change of course, trade SPX and SQQQ/TQQQ only until the market confirms a direction. If green TSLA and META calls look nice. If red TSLA, WMT, and AMZN puts.
spud1910
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FJ43 said:


I feel like I should post this.....

Y'all see me actively trading options. I've learned to be disciplined with my style/system, trade plan and execution but it took lots of red ink years ago to gain that wisdom. Options are NOT for everyone and I do not recommend it unless you apply yourself. While I take a few that are possible home runs the vast majority are high probability for singles, doubles and occasions home runs. I flat love the rush of options trading.

I do not full port options or any trade. I manage risk and work to manage the trade green scaling out. I've learned I don't need the trades full potential just the meat. I set trailing stops when green at certain levels. And above all else get out when your trade plan says to.
Valuable lessons here.
Carlo4
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Appreciate the share. Why I love this board. I know I told my story about my dad being way too big in tech and stuck in ICU.

In one week, he should be in a full rehab facility to get stronger. In one month, he will be home! Incredible watching how far he has come in the last week from not eating and walking to now eating full meals and taking 50 steps at a time!

I have sold 450 of his 1000 shares of Apple (along with the other tech plays) at a $170 average to allow a $75k cash position and diversify his portfolio into retirement dividend plays (5% or higher annual). I feel I got him a good ROI by selling a good chunk now, and the rest can be done with as he pleases

He will not be thrilled about the loss of shares but he pays zero taxes in long term gains due to his other massive tech losses. I'm hopeful he can look at all this and decide to use a broker to help handle his money and continue to diversify his holdings.
oldarmy1
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SoTXAg09 said:


OA talked about buying META Calls, but it looks to be in a Darvas box. Thoughts?




You'll note that target was Model T, so no reason to buy until there, but I followed on with a blanket tweet l, well ahead of this and others saying to ignore all Model T targets when the coiled macro's broke to the downside. Now I'd look at the 75 FIB retracements for initial entries instead of 50% Model T.

There is a $419 area likely bounce but I think it quickly gets lost into FJ's chart. Good job on the charting there. Mainly, once we've entered a downtrend the first thing I look at is gaps. Coordinate targets with gap fill overruns (don't forget they almost always flash below and that is your execution point).

Also, the band bounces oost gap-fill are very tradable, but you trim on the initial big move up, especially if there are more gaps below - and on the macros there are!

I always shoot for 75% success rate on options. This last run up I went 12 for 12 because, like I tried to teach people, the easiest money to be made is the initial reversal stage. Trading against the left chart-side downtrend upward is almost too easy to believe. One of my main tweets was letting people know that most are sitting on their hands as it happens. I was 100% positive of the bottom and traded accordingly.

Exact opposite after spotting and trading the initial warning drop several days back. I tweeted and reiterated that there was no reason to be entering stocks there. I went fishing as my sitting on my hands discipline. Puts in place and waiting to see which way the pennant tip broke. Once it technically broke my tweets were more about how most traders exit puts way too soon. The money comes in fast and furious and I get the temptation. Once up 50% then go for a trim but nearly every DM or tweet reply was people saying they had closed out for a nice gain. They missed up to 300% more gains.
irish pete ag06
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Thank you so much for sharing
FJ43
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OA chiming in with nuggets on a Saturday morning.

Is the band getting back together? When the triplets (McInnis clan) is back posting it may be an official tour.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
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If you are new to trading options or trading in general, for the love of all things sane (and your capital) do not trade weeklies or even worse 0DTE (same day expiration). Go out a ways (month+) on expirations to learn.

Weekly and 0DTE IMO should be for experienced traders with solid execution skills. Unless you just like pain…
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

oldarmy1
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irish pete ag06 said:

Thank you so much for sharing


Markets love to go from red futures to green for several days for conditioning and creating buyers that then become trapped, when they don't understand technical's. This is my warning reminder I had given Thursday.





When you see chop exit trades and, if jot already hedged, get there. And don't trade just to trade! I violated my own discipline by buying small SHOP calls when it came below Model T. Sure enough it bounced hut then rushed to new lows. Lost $460 when exited from a $240 gain in less than 30 seconds. LOL



Study the daily charts over the last week against all of this, to improve your ability to spot similar set ups. These macro ones happen more often than individual stocks, but individual stocks generally react in turn.

59 South
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FJ43 said:


OA chiming in with nuggets on a Saturday morning afternoon.

Is the band getting back together? When the triplets (McInnis clan) is back posting it may be an official tour.
FIFY mate

#LetsRide
FJ43
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More chart voodoo for SPY...

Per OA's left hand side comment you can see it here.

Couple quick points then off for honey-dos....

  • You can see the pit stop potential in the 418-419s (red arrows) range but ultimately I think we visit that 416.30s SR.
  • 416s also happens to be a 30k special being the ATR mean reversion, Yellow EMA is the 21 and the mean. Yellow arrows.
  • I could argue we are seeing an H&S forming in the blue circle same as looking to the left hand chart,
  • Top of right shoulder is that 416s. Bottom would be in the 407/8s.
  • Do we bounce at 416s? Fill in the right shoulder?

I'm short held over the weekend. I would love for OA to will in a gap down violent flash move into the box on Monday. I can only wish....


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

59 South
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

59 South said:

Hey 30k, since you're taking some time away... any chance you'd moonlight an hour or 2 as a career counselor compensated in the currency of your choice? Your insight into the corporate world is impressive.


Bro, I'll just give you my cell phone number and we can chat. You're an ag, but I would never charge for that anyway.
Over here it is called your mo-bile sir

In all seriousness though, I may take you up on your offer soonish...

As for you and Prog's other comments, I would probably have to put my 6 yr old on the line. Unlike her old man she can speak in several different accents almost to perfection and will often ask which one you prefer for the conversation.
irish pete ag06
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What he said. I will show you my P&L % for proof!
59 South
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I'll piggy back onto FJ's chart as I've been doing some homework today... here's my pathway to sweet victory or defeat (propose the $100 gets paid to charity either way - anybody else want to pick a side and make the same $100 pledge either way???)



Ok, I'm off to finish prepping chicken fajita enchiladas for Mama with the assistance of my multi-accent daughter (time for Spanish practice). You old farts have a good weekend!
59 South
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One last chart to share - I don't do crypto, but I do monitor it since it has become fairly correlated to other risk assets like tech stocks. Critical spot and a long way down if loses long term support... monthly all time:

FJ43
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59 South said:

I'll piggy back onto FJ's chart as I've been doing some homework today... here's my pathway to sweet victory or defeat (propose the $100 gets paid to charity either way - anybody else want to pick a side and make the same $100 pledge either way???)



Ok, I'm off to finish prepping chicken fajita enchiladas for Mama with the assistance of my multi-accent daughter (time for Spanish practice). You old farts have a good weekend!


Put me down for $100 to charity for the downside. How low don't know. Double top 430 incoming?
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

$30,000 Millionaire
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We're going to touch this line this week.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Philip J Fry
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FJ43
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

We're going to touch this line this week.




Could you draw it lower for a friend mine?
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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oldarmy1
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Philip J Fry said:


Every trader should watch this. He uses several of the same indicators I've used for years. Some are very technical, and I don't post on them, but they assist me in entry/exit targets.

With nearly every stock being discussed achieving Model T his flush then bounce readings should be in mind. It's why I initially had listed all those stocks for entry. I expect a bounce but since we are at the upper end of the channel, I want confirmation before entering. If we were at the lower end then I'd have been accumulating shares/options Friday into the close and just added if we have a red premarket/opening Monday.

This is really basic thought process in determining how much you risk. I tweeted I would like to see one more push upward to really load up on puts. My largest position entered Thursday was 100 $420 Sept 2 SPY puts. I also layered 50 cheap $426 expiring puts in case we broke down. Premarket you'll see I tweeted buying 25% shares against those just in case the market rallied. At the open I said I wanted out of those shares and enter cheap calls as the possible point breaking up. I wanted out of shares no matter what, to limit risk but still have some upside offset to larger downside thinking - again, due to readings similar to what the video is showing.

I lost $0.62/option on the calls entered when selling shares. But the $426 puts went to nearly $5 for a net big score. I tweeted the exit of those on the $422 breaking. I also sold 25 of the 100 Sept Puts.

Another thing to look at on his video is the divergence green/red dots. Count how many dots, representing days, it can take to play out. This is why people saying to go out far enough on options are giving you great info. It's why most options I give I stick with through early losses. I'm reading eventual likelihood based on the model.

Another thing about the dot indicators. Notice the linear dots. You have 3 dots and 4 dots at times horizontally. Generally, it's during a consolidation or divergence period. When you 4+ dots be thinking confirmation of direction that hasn't even happened yet. 4+ green dots = it's got more move to make upward. 4+ red dots = get out/buy puts.

He does a good job showing the overall picture. Not sure if he ever gets granular with making trade calls or just lets people use the info.
FJ43
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OA you looking to October puts on any potential push up? I see your 9/2 put trade above. If we bounce and move up I've been looking a bit further out.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Brewmaster
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59 South said:

One last chart to share - I don't do crypto, but I do monitor it since it has become fairly correlated to other risk assets like tech stocks. Critical spot and a long way down if loses long term support... monthly all time:


You're right on track. I'd argue it's already lost support, but I'm looking zoomed in on the daily...

to climb back into this daily channel, it's literally over 23k. It's nowhere near there as of this posting.

oldarmy1
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FJ43 said:

OA you looking to October puts on any potential push up? I see your 9/2 put trade above. If we bounce and move up I've been looking a bit further out.


You got it. I'll go 2nd week of Oct $410's but I'll also place an array of outs 2 - 4 weeks out $420 down to $415. I like be able to close out the higher ones into the next level, much like Friday.
spud1910
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FJ43 said:

59 South said:

I'll piggy back onto FJ's chart as I've been doing some homework today... here's my pathway to sweet victory or defeat (propose the $100 gets paid to charity either way - anybody else want to pick a side and make the same $100 pledge either way???)



Ok, I'm off to finish prepping chicken fajita enchiladas for Mama with the assistance of my multi-accent daughter (time for Spanish practice). You old farts have a good weekend!


Put me down for $100 to charity for the downside. How low don't know. Double top 430 incoming?
I'm in! $100 to charity picked by whoever wins. The education and entertainment value make it a bargain.
FJ43
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oldarmy1 said:

FJ43 said:

OA you looking to October puts on any potential push up? I see your 9/2 put trade above. If we bounce and move up I've been looking a bit further out.


You got it. I'll go 2nd week of Oct $410's but I'll also place an array of outs 2 - 4 weeks out $420 down to $415. I like be able to close out the higher ones into the next level, much like Friday.

Thanks. Confirms my thoughts here. I plan to trade in between similarly on weekly depending on where we are in the week. After Wednesdays, I'll likely go out to the next Friday expiry.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

slacker00
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what's the dot indicator called? It looks similar to a Parabolic SAR but not quite the same results when I checked it out on a chart.
irish pete ag06
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Morbid but this is stock discussion. A top advisor's daughter to Putin reportedly has been assassinated. Rumor was it he advisor was the target. I'm sure there will be a response.
ProgN
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It won't have any bearing on the market.

I'm more pissed about how much our billions in aid is being stolen by politicians in Ukraine.
BaylorSpineGuy
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This x 1,000,000. Stupid we send them Blank checks and weapons they could never develop on their own only to prolong a seemingly invariable outcome. Mindless leadership. Oh well, back to stocks.

Don't wanna get banned on a forum in which I am a guest lol.
oldarmy1
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Interested to know

Brewmaster
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long mostly SARK (so I'm short). Also have some AMD, but on a very tight leash.

this concerns me a little though... (in not going overly short/ puts). Slight rip up last week of August and big rip mid September.

BaylorSpineGuy
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Remember AAPL peaked in Sept 3 last year then went down for the month. Per Karsan, Sept OpEx (much like March OpEx) tends to be quite bearish while June and Dec OpEx tend to have more bullish flow. Next month OpEx in conjunction with a Fed rate hike could really slug the market.
ProgN
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oldarmy1 said:

Interested to know


Since I can't participate on Twitter, I'm currently at 75% in the market. However my input is meaningless because it I'm in trading positions so it could go to 0% on Wednesday and 100% on Thursday. FTR, I don't count my TTD position that is planted because it's in set it and forget it land.
$30,000 Millionaire
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Trading portfolio or investment portfolio?

Trading portfolio I am not overnighting options unless net free. I have 25-50% long exposure but it's in energy stocks.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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