ENVX premarket say what?

Read an interesting article early this morning that stated that 70% of EV models currently available in the US are not eligible for the EV tax credit, as it requires a certain percentage of the battery to be made in the US. And that by 2029, the entire thing must be made in the US - and that zero current EV models qualify.

I haven't seen that get a lot of press. Once it's more publicized, I wonder if it will drop some EV makers, and raise those companies responsible for harvesting materials and making batteries here in the US

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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XOM Pre-Market trade of 3 million. I don't see it on NASDAQ site for trades, but it was reported and the total volume shows reported. That's a lot for XOM Pre-Market.

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Come on lucky number $100!

If SPY buys into 414 with volume maybe it can break the box but if no volume then I think I will scalp some puts down to 408.

Was that ENVX 9:44 candle a stop raid? I shorted overnight to lock in some profits on calls I bought yesterday afternoon. I closed that and half my calls here at the open. It really looks like it wants to run today if the market doesn't crap the bed.

TSLA below last week's low.

peaking out below the box...

Here's a crank turner.

Quote:

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Jeffrey W Ubben, Director, on August 04, 2022, executed a purchase for 1,000,000 shares in Exxon Mobil(XOM) for $88,445,292. Following the Form 4 filing with the SEC, Ubben has control over a total of 1,177,000 shares of the company, with 1,177,000 controlled indirectly. The market value of the direct and indirect holding, based on the transaction price, is approximately $103,364,140.

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That's what I'm thinking. I've been building a large SQQQ position, but this makes me wanna cut it loose today.

CPI should be crappy. As I recall it's a YoY calculation. It will take a few more months to flush out the lows in the year old data and bring in some higher values to make it appear there is improvement in the nearby.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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CPI tomorrow. Could be traps.

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Yep. I thought I'd done decently well with trades. Win a couple, lose a couple, but I'm down $200 for the day not counting the ENVX.

I guess I'm back to waiting on the market for direction.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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CPI should be crappy. As I recall it's a YoY calculation. It will take a few more months to flush out the lows in the year old data and bring in some higher values to make it appear there is improvement in the nearby.

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Does high CPI negatively impact the market (assuming it isn't priced in - I realize it will mostly be already baked in)? Why? Raises expectation for fed rate hikes or something?

Also, can someone clarify what happens if you own a put that expires in the money but you also own the underlying stock? Will the brokerage assign shares of stock for the higher strike price of the put, or will they just cash settle the put?

Don't want to realize gains on the underlying stock, so may have to sell out of the put I guess before it becomes illiquid.

The 1 minute volume sticks that pop up on QQQ are crazy.

Bought a couple crwd sept 9 210 calls for $5

topher06 said:

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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CPI should be crappy. As I recall it's a YoY calculation. It will take a few more months to flush out the lows in the year old data and bring in some higher values to make it appear there is improvement in the nearby.

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Does high CPI negatively impact the market (assuming it isn't priced in - I realize it will mostly be already baked in)? Why? Raises expectation for fed rate hikes or something?

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Many ways to define this and there should be other responses along with mine. "Does high CPI negatively impact the market...." I look at it this way.

Using some old base numbers to reflect where this was starting. ..........If the Fed Rate is zero to a quarter percent (it was for a long time, but not today) and CPI shows inflation at 6.0% or greater (+8% today) - that's the greatest incentive there is for a growing economy to stay in growth to hot mode. Borrow money for "nuthin'" and make 6.5%. The Fed started raising rates to slow growth, because the incentive was to great. ....Now, moving forward in time and additional Fed Rate increases added to the mix.....If Fed Rate is at 2.5% and CPI shows inflation at 8.3%, it shows closing the gap between the two and makes it a disincentive to keep business & economy in hyper-growth mode, as the return is not so good anymore and risks are creeping into the system. Trick is for the Fed to raise rates without bringing demand/growth to a complete halt. Fed has help from corporations with layoffs and consumer spending decreases from loss of job and thereby slows the economy. That's why the forecasts contend that inflation will level off at ~4% in 2023 while the Fed Rate will slowly move to ~4/4.5% by 2023 and bring a "balance" to the economy in growth and no dagger to kill it. Many more inputs to this scenario, but my simplistic view in words. Hope this helps.

ETA: Inflation led recession is typically harmful to a stock market as Growth stocks suffer and Value stocks climb in a flight of money to safety. Bonds usually do pretty well in these scenarios but worldwide influence in the bond side has yielded some odd movement in bonds. If you're going to have a recession, the performers are the basics, food, shelter, energy (fuel), vices. People curb spending to only buy what is needed as the pay check is shrinking in buying power - going to buy a hamburger before considering a new iPhone type outcomes.

topher06 said:

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Also, can someone clarify what happens if you own a put that expires in the money but you also own the underlying stock? Will the brokerage assign shares of stock for the higher strike price of the put, or will they just cash settle the put?

Don't want to realize gains on the underlying stock, so may have to sell out of the put I guess before it becomes illiquid.

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Brokers might do it differently, but unless it's specifically a cash-settled option, like XSP, if you hold through expiration and are in the money your broker will generally execute whatever that option says. In the case of a bought put, that means they likely will sell shares at the strike price. If you own shares they will sell those, if you do not own enough to cover they will sell short.

It sounds like you may want to begin trying to sell the put prior to expiration if you want to avoid tax liability from selling your shares.

Anyone have any good suggestions for places to park cash other than a savings account that doesn't earn squat?
I've seen a few MMAs and CDs in the 1.5-2% range but wanted to see if any of y'all had any suggestions

I bought some ibonds but you'll need to be ok locking the cash up for 12 months.

Chop chop chop chop

How long are you willing to let it sit? If you don't need it for at least a year, I'd recommend maxing out your Series I Treasury bonds for everyone under your roof (if you can). After that, maybe a portion in some stable-ish dividend type funds (SCHD, DNP, SPYD, etc). Then money market the rest.

PUBM smacking dat earnings ass is the only thing keeping my portfolio from being totally in the toilet today.

ag94whoop said:

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Anyone have any good suggestions for places to park cash other than a savings account that doesn't earn squat?
I've seen a few MMAs and CDs in the 1.5-2% range but wanted to see if any of y'all had any suggestions

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The problem because keeping it liquid if you are planning to put it back in the market when you feel comfortable. If you think about 8% annual loss due to inflation that's not the worst thing if you aren't keeping it there very long.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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ag94whoop said:

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Anyone have any good suggestions for places to park cash other than a savings account that doesn't earn squat?
I've seen a few MMAs and CDs in the 1.5-2% range but wanted to see if any of y'all had any suggestions

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The problem because keeping it liquid if you are planning to put it back in the market when you feel comfortable. If you think about 8% annual loss due to inflation that's not the worst thing if you aren't keeping it there very long.

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I-bonds?

US Treasury Inflation Bonds

Bob Knights Liver said:

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topher06 said:

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Also, can someone clarify what happens if you own a put that expires in the money but you also own the underlying stock? Will the brokerage assign shares of stock for the higher strike price of the put, or will they just cash settle the put?

Don't want to realize gains on the underlying stock, so may have to sell out of the put I guess before it becomes illiquid.

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Brokers might do it differently, but unless it's specifically a cash-settled option, like XSP, if you hold through expiration and are in the money your broker will generally execute whatever that option says. In the case of a bought put, that means they likely will sell shares at the strike price. If you own shares they will sell those, if you do not own enough to cover they will sell short.

It sounds like you may want to begin trying to sell the put prior to expiration if you want to avoid tax liability from selling your shares.

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Thanks.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Bob Knights Liver said:

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ag94whoop said:

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Anyone have any good suggestions for places to park cash other than a savings account that doesn't earn squat?
I've seen a few MMAs and CDs in the 1.5-2% range but wanted to see if any of y'all had any suggestions

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The problem because keeping it liquid if you are planning to put it back in the market when you feel comfortable. If you think about 8% annual loss due to inflation that's not the worst thing if you aren't keeping it there very long.

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I-bonds?

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https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/3284662

You want this level, right here, to hold. I'll be getting short if we lose the LOD.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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You want this level, right here, to hold. I'll be getting short if we lose the LOD.

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4035 up next if this doesn't hold, that would make for some tasty puts!

topher06 said:

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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CPI should be crappy. As I recall it's a YoY calculation. It will take a few more months to flush out the lows in the year old data and bring in some higher values to make it appear there is improvement in the nearby.

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Does high CPI negatively impact the market (assuming it isn't priced in - I realize it will mostly be already baked in)? Why? Raises expectation for fed rate hikes or something?

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I would think the entire "don't worry about the Fed because we are near a recession AFTER TWO QUARTERS OF NEGATIVE GDP"...

will be replaced with "oh @#$# the top of inflation is not in yet and Powell is going to be raising another 75 basis points!"

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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Here's a crank turner.

Quote:

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Jeffrey W Ubben, Director, on August 04, 2022, executed a purchase for 1,000,000 shares in Exxon Mobil(XOM) for $88,445,292. Following the Form 4 filing with the SEC, Ubben has control over a total of 1,177,000 shares of the company, with 1,177,000 controlled indirectly. The market value of the direct and indirect holding, based on the transaction price, is approximately $103,364,140.

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Interesting. Back in February Ubben sold 1.5M shares at $80. He initially bought his way onto the board buying shares at $55. I think it's bullish to buy back at a higher price. He probably regretted selling and realized this is the best he can do and it's not coming back to $80.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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You want this level, right here, to hold. I'll be getting short if we lose the LOD.

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4115? What's the significance?