interesting... just noticed this. flag upward, we keep bouncing off this trend line. Currently it would be around 4125 (spx).
the other bounces were August 2nd (twice) and August 5th (twice).

As in, we are likely continuing up?

irish pete ag06 said:

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As in, we are likely continuing up?

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Maybe eventually. I lean bullish, but we could reverse and go down. For me this is just a wait until we confirm and then give it a few extra 5-min candles to make sure it's not a trap.

BREwmaster said:

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interesting... just noticed this. flag upward, we keep bouncing off this trend line. Currently it would be around 4125 (spx).
the other bounces were August 2nd (twice) and August 5th (twice).

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4125 then bounce, Let's see if I'm right.

Just for grins and perhaps sacrifice, I picked 0DTE 410P on SPY. Enjoy all who profit from the opposite. This is my tribute.

Spoony Love said:

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Just for grins and perhaps sacrifice, I picked 0DTE 410P on SPY. Enjoy all who profit from the opposite. This is my tribute.

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That would be quite the move down in the last hour.

Interesting seeing TSLA lose all of it's gains. Ugly daily candle rejecting 200 SMA. There are a lot of topping candles out there today.

Here's a one-off data point -

Fairly large bet on XOM.

XOM Aug 19-$100 Call Option has 43,752 contracts of Open Interest. Half of this bet was established in one trade near the end of April and the other half a few days later as I recall. I'm leaning the bet was XOM to $100 or greater. Guess we'll see soon enough. Logic in normal times would suggest a bullish tone to it.

The jacked up weekly numbers coming out of the EIA are getting some media traction and I think some closer scrutiny will be exerted this week and weeks to follow. Something isn't right,...because you know,...the EIA demand numbers suggest we are driving less now than when we were locked down in Covid working from home or not working at all. Conversely, all contributors of data to EIA state otherwise..

Last, the Inflation Reduction Act,...since there is a 1% tax on share buybacks coming, look for XOM to step up the buybacks in 2022 to avoid the tax in 2023. You may recall, XOM plans to buyback $30 billion (a mere 12% of the company) over the course of 2022 and 2023. Congress gave incentive to step up the buybacks sooner. This likely impacts other companies too.

Its an interesting question for corporate treasurers with rates going higher. XOM has a ton of right cash now. Almost $11B free cash flow in 2Q after paying a $3.6B dividend and $5B in share buybacks. They can invest it at about 2% maybe more now. In that scenario is it prudent to buy back stock at high prices or invest? Also if/when the market falls it'd be good to have cash to make moves.

oldarmy1 said:

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Reverse head and shoulder on macro's

Looks like we're going to screw around in and around the box until CPI Wednesday

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Confirmed move up

Hey….if the ZM meeting ends up happening, can someone plz PM me an invite? I had a late day emergency add on but will try to make it tonight.

Thanks!!

I haven't heard from IMDB yet on hosting it will be OK.

Today was frustrating. Managed green but ugh.

I have something big going on tomorrow morning anyway.

Effing BIRD. Beat on EPS and Revenue but weak guidance again.

CLOV had monster revenue growth but corresponding medical claims. 2Q revenue of $846M but medical claims of $858M.

Dan Scott said:

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A stock to look at going forward is Allbirds (BIRD). Stock closed at $5.27 Friday. It went public at $15 in November. They have earnings tomorrow. Stock has been crushed because they forecasted low 20% revenue growth vs. high 20% for 2Q. International sales went to crap with Russian invasion and China lockdowns. I think they underestimated the spending of middle to high income individuals and will show sizeable beat. Also their shoes launched in Nordstroms in June who themselves raised 2022 guidance beyond expectations during their 1Q call. I recently bought a pair and think they are the most comfortable sneakers I've owned.

I think Allbirds can become the Lululemon of shoes. Risk reward around $5 I think is good.

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Good day for Allbirds, but it's giving it all back after hours.

XOM also comes out shining with the sequestration subsidies in the IRA. Valero and Oxy are doing well there too.

Troglodyte said:

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Dan Scott said:

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A stock to look at going forward is Allbirds (BIRD). Stock closed at $5.27 Friday. It went public at $15 in November. They have earnings tomorrow. Stock has been crushed because they forecasted low 20% revenue growth vs. high 20% for 2Q. International sales went to crap with Russian invasion and China lockdowns. I think they underestimated the spending of middle to high income individuals and will show sizeable beat. Also their shoes launched in Nordstroms in June who themselves raised 2022 guidance beyond expectations during their 1Q call. I recently bought a pair and think they are the most comfortable sneakers I've owned.

I think Allbirds can become the Lululemon of shoes. Risk reward around $5 I think is good.

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Good day for Allbirds, but it's giving it all back after hours.

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Yeah that sucked. It's back to $5. They said on the call after Father's Day they saw a noticeable drop off in sales and it's persisting in 3Q so far. They believe it's not specific to them and that for the higher end consumer the belt tightening is just now starting. They laid off a few 23 people in corporate office and are doing some other cost saving.

So with the way this market goes, we will see inflation print lower than expected...


then sell off.


Right?

Dan Scott said:

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Buffet bought more OXY. If you're selling OXY below 60, you're selling to Buffet.

https://occidentalpetroleum.gcs-web.com/static-files/852e82c5-4874-4f1d-92c9-75db7a9f2186

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I bought calls Friday on this bounce off the trend line. Hope it holds!

irish pete ag06 said:

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So with the way this market goes, we will see inflation print lower than expected...


then sell off.


Right?

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You are catching on! haha

Couldn't you argue, as long as 4120 holds and this channel (Up) holds, it's bullish?

I was tempted to go long some SPY calls on the dip today, but didn't, sticking to my rules! but I'll definitely buy a bounce off 4120 tomorrow morning if that happens.

Pretty big spot for VIX as well.

Looks like OA is back from ban camp on Twitter.