A couple things:

1) nobody has any clue where there will be a bottom
2) there has not been a monthly 8/21 cross since April 2008. It took 9 months to bottom after that happened. 2001 required 21 months to bottom. 1974 required 11 months. 1977 was 6 months, 1982 was 7 months
3) 3500 may be inevitable.
4) Covid high to low had a 1200 point move. 3600 is a symmetrical move. Watch and see what happens.

2008 - 58% decline
2001 - 50% decline
1973 - 50% decline
1977 - 21%
1972 - 28%
2022** - 22.5% so far. 2400 is 50%, which is close to Covid lows.

Let's see if we actually get the cross, but it feels inevitable. We will hit 4000 at least once more.

On the bright side, we are dropping pretty fast vs grinding down by historical comparison. If that holds true, my estimate is that we get a 30% decline or 3350-3370.

Tulips!

Get your tulips!

Right here, nice beautiful tulips!

Get your tulips!

Wait, people follow and listen to this idiot? I don't mind being fully committed but telling others to finance their livelihoods to buy Bitcoin is so wrong. I can't imagine how many people subscribed to this Idiocracy

Turnaround Tuesday??? Dead Cat Bounce....Fed 75 Tomorrow? 3 Month Libor 2%+

Yesterday was one of the ugliest days we have seen... While it was not a crash, it was ugly... Both bonds and equities got smoked, and bitcoin crumbled... While the catalyst was the continuing fallout from the CPI number on Friday, it seems like everyone got on board to accelerate the fears much further... The afternoon catalyst was from Timaros at the WSJ, who penned a column that the Fed would go 75 tomorrow... Does he really have inside information on that?... Did someone in DC whisper that to him, even though the Fed is in blackout?.. We will know in about 30 hours... But the markets seem to take it that he knows something... Our view remains that Powell has said he will go 50 and he will not deviate... Meanwhile the world is now thinking 4% Fed Funds sometime next year... And the debate of 25 or 50 in September is now 50 or 75... 200 basis is now being talked about between now and the September meeting... 50 in June and 75 each in July and September... We doubt that will happen as we continue to get new information... And those type of panic related moves will raise the odds of recession from small to moderate... What the Fed does not realize, is there is no liquidity... The Fed has been the backstop for liquidity for over a decade, and now they are no longer there... How in the world does a 3 month Tbill auction tail 9 basis yesterday?... That is the worst since the Lehman situation, which was a leverage play... This is not leverage, it is a replay of the beginning of Covid when the economy was mistakenly closed...

Fed... Goldman, JP, DB, all joined Barclays and Jefferies predicting a 75 basis hike tomorrow... Citi is not there and remains at 50,.. We agree with Citi... In BB Daybreak there is a note that says both JP and StanChart, "Mooting the possibility of 100 basis hike tomorrow"... Why not 700 basis hike tomorrow to get to inflation right away??? Again we think 50 and many are trying to jump ahead to see who can be the most aggressive... Meanwhile we see that 3 MONTH LIBOR JUMPED 17.443 BASIS THIS MORNING TO 2.0039...

Inflation is bad... And we get PPI today which could add more fire to the argument..PPI final demand YOY is predicted to be 10.9%... We think likely mid 11%... And if you want to add fire to the argument, look at German inflation numbers today...Cpi EU Harmonized YOY was 8.7%... But the WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX YOY WAS 22.9%... We could argue that these numbers are peaking and be reduced significantly over the next few months, but no one will listen to us... However, we are not the only ones that think it will come down quickly..UBS raised their oil target for Brent to 130 by the end of September.... But BB reports that OIL OPTION TRADERS ARE VERY PESSIMISTIC.. CONTRACTS WITH THE MOST OPEN INTEREST FOR DECEMBER ARE BRENT PUTS WITH A STRIKE OF 55... HELLO... It looks like others see the chance for a big drop in inflation... Just not today.

Rates... Treasuries are bull steepening as 2 years are better by 7.2 basis... 10 years better by 5.3.. 2/10 have gone from -4 to +4 overnight, now at 2.5...we are searching for support levels... Citi has 3.75 for both 2's and 5's...seems too wide for us... We see support for 2 years around 3.375 to 3.5.. For 5 years 3.5 to 3.625... For 10 years 3.375 to 3.5... We expect to see significantly different levels for rates Thursday morning, depending on what the Fed does and how they portray their hawkishness...

Corporates... Forget about it... No new issues yesterday and none scheduled yet today... The world is ugly in this space for now...IG CDX is now over 100, after widening 20 in the last week. We see 112 support in the charts... HY is out more than 100 in the last week going from 472 close on 6/6 to 583 now...we see 636 on the charts as the next stop... We said that when the new issue markets starts to close, it would bring havoc to the equity markets... It seems that while the correlation is there, the equity markets led this..

Equities... We had multiple calls yesterday asking if it is safe to buy equities here... While we did see capitulation yesterday, we don't know if this is one of many that we will see... But it was a big one as 1.3 trillion of value was wiped out... We now get David Rosenberg Tweets, where this morning he called for a crash... Problem with the guys that are always negative, is that just like a broken clock, they are right every once in awhile... We don't dispute that another downdraft could happen, and will likely happen, but our gut feel is that while we think equities could be ok here, markets tend to overshoot... And we do not think that has happened yet...

I can tell that this thread has taught me a lot. When I first joined and would read AustinAg's posts, I felt like I was trying to read Arabic. Now I can understand at least half of it. Baby steps!

Jet Black said:

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JUST IN: Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy #Bitcoin investment is now at a $1,260,000,000 unrealized loss.

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) June 14, 2022

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is that bad?

I've been very anti-Bitcoin for a long time. Not because of the technology, but because it's F'n useless until the US GOVT considers it a form a currency.

Actual conversation I had with a friend who believes in it. Maybe they aren't all like this..
Him: "It's going to disrupt and take over the dollar"
Me: "Ok cool so how much is it worth?"
Him: "39,xxx dollars"
Me: "How can it's value be measured in the one thing it's set to destroy?"
... crickets...

With that being said... there are a lot of people who are going to lose their ass who might not actually deserve it.

Long but here it is....

By Lucita Ng and Tania Florencia Wiranata
(Bloomberg) -- Some options traders are preparing for Brent
crude prices to collapse below $100 a barrel by year-end, even
as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. forecast
oil futures willrise closer to $140.
The contracts with the largest open interest for December
2022 are Brent puts with strike prices of $55, well below the
current spot price around $120. Put strikes are more
concentrated at lower levels in contrast with scattered call
strikes. A surge in Chinese imports of Russian barrels, inspired
by a record Urals-Brent discount, may serve as a safety valve to
slow price rallies.
The Open Interest by Expiry chart shows open OI for calls
(blue) and puts (red) by expiry. The Open Interest by Strike
chart below indicates bigger clusters of bets at lower levels
while wagers on higher prices are more scattered and largely
smaller, except for a spike at the $150 strike. The big volumes
out-of-the-money options are drawing attention, though it is
hard to distinguish between speculative bets and producer
hedges. Scroll to the table for more details on strikes.
"Traders may see the cost of putting a bear spread trade as
low," said Henik Fung, a Hong Kong-based oil analyst at
Bloomberg Intelligence (BI), adding they may buy and sell puts
of different strikes to profit from spreads. "One thing is
certain that more traders are increasingly bearish on oil."
Crude's outlook is held hostage to politics. The US has
made overtures to soothe relations in the Middle East. President
Joe Biden will travel to Saudi Arabia in July, amid efforts to
lower US gasoline prices.


o be sure, some traders are placing wagers on oil to hit
$200 for September. BI says there is one scenario in which the
EU's Russian oil ban, China's reopening, low inventories and
limited spare capacity can push prices to that level, "before
demand destruction ultimately kicks in to rebalance the market."
The record Urals to Brent discount offers incentives for
Chinese and Indian buyers to continue purchases, despite the
EU's ban on seaborne imports of Russian petroleum.
China and India have snapped up Russian oil more
aggressively since late March after Russia's invasion of
Ukraine. India's state-owned refiners are also showing interest
in supplies from Rosneft PJSC.

Russian oil trades at a discount of $32.7 a barrel to
Brent. This compares with much narrower WTI-Brent (white) and
OPEC-Brent (orange) differentials, increasing the appeal of
Russian supplies for China and India.

3760 is my bull bear line today. If we can remain bid, I think 3800 is in the cards. If we lose 3760, I think we see 3735 (yesterday's low) or lower today before the fed.

I think big relief rally tomorrow is a possibility as is an emotional puke. But, knowing how things work, it will probably trade flat since I'm expecting a large directional move.

Just watch yourselves. There will be a short squeeze soon.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Jet Black said:

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JUST IN: Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy #Bitcoin investment is now at a $1,260,000,000 unrealized loss.

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) June 14, 2022

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How is this possible and MSTR is trading where it closed this morning?

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Have you learned nothing?

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Yes

SIAP

Coinbase is laying off 18% of work force amid Crypto winter

TChaney said:

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This has aged like milk in the summer heat. pic.twitter.com/YGLgpiu1pb

— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) June 12, 2022

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Woof