I keep lowering my reentry target, was looking at 3700 back in March but I am gravitating towards 3400 or Labor Day, whichever comes first.
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Last: 29 min ago by bmoochie
Started buying back into CIDM
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In honor and remembrance of Irish _2.0
CNN Fear & Greed Index = 19 (Extreme Fear)
CNN Fear & Greed Index = 19 (Extreme Fear)
wanderer said:
Not saying you should or shouldn't have bought it, just keep in mind it's a 3x leveraged fund. It experiences leverage-induced decay (math) over time and typically 3x leveraged funds aren't a good long-term hold because of this.
What's your definition of long?
There's certainly no exact answer on what is too long to hold a 3x leveraged ETF. Just know the longer you hold, the more math is working against you.
I currently own 3x ETFs (UPRO & LABU) so I'm not saying you shouldn't do it, just know that saying things will definitely work out in the long term can sometimes be a fool's errand.
I currently own 3x ETFs (UPRO & LABU) so I'm not saying you shouldn't do it, just know that saying things will definitely work out in the long term can sometimes be a fool's errand.
Basically untradeable chop right now.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Volume starting to pick up..
Starting to hear murmurs of a 75 BPS increase this week.
Fully aware of decay, but still think it's a good buy right now.wanderer said:
Not saying you should or shouldn't have bought it, just keep in mind it's a 3x leveraged fund. It experiences leverage-induced decay (math) over time and typically 3x leveraged funds aren't a good long-term hold because of this.
I think they're going to crash it to scare people out of longs. I am less bearish without any real retracement.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Brian Earl Spilner said:Fully aware of decay, but still think it's a good buy right now.wanderer said:
Not saying you should or shouldn't have bought it, just keep in mind it's a 3x leveraged fund. It experiences leverage-induced decay (math) over time and typically 3x leveraged funds aren't a good long-term hold because of this.
If you're buying TQQQ right now you're crazy for anything other than a day trade or a swing trade off some technical support. Or you like losing money.
Quoting for posterity.La Bamba said:Brian Earl Spilner said:Fully aware of decay, but still think it's a good buy right now.wanderer said:
Not saying you should or shouldn't have bought it, just keep in mind it's a 3x leveraged fund. It experiences leverage-induced decay (math) over time and typically 3x leveraged funds aren't a good long-term hold because of this.
If you're buying TQQQ right now you're crazy for anything other than a day trade or a swing trade off some technical support. Or you like losing money.
Philip J Fry said:wanderer said:
Not saying you should or shouldn't have bought it, just keep in mind it's a 3x leveraged fund. It experiences leverage-induced decay (math) over time and typically 3x leveraged funds aren't a good long-term hold because of this.
What's your definition of long?
Seriously no clever inappropriate responses to this? This thread is great but needs a humor upgrade.
Revlon - Can't put "lipstick" on a pig?
Couldn't resist.
Couldn't resist.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Mr Spinler, i admire your moxie. See you in Valhalla!
Haha my bad. I'm ashamed I let that opportunity go to waste.59 South said:Philip J Fry said:wanderer said:
Not saying you should or shouldn't have bought it, just keep in mind it's a 3x leveraged fund. It experiences leverage-induced decay (math) over time and typically 3x leveraged funds aren't a good long-term hold because of this.
What's your definition of long?
Seriously no clever inappropriate responses to this? This thread is great but needs a humor upgrade.
Just know the longer you hold, the more math is working against you, but the more you're exposed to potential returns. As long as return > decay I will continue holding (have been for 5 years now).wanderer said:
There's certainly no exact answer on what is too long to hold a 3x leveraged ETF. Just know the longer you hold, the more math is working against you.
I currently own 3x ETFs (UPRO & LABU) so I'm not saying you shouldn't do it, just know that saying things will definitely work out in the long term can sometimes be a fool's errand.
1 x funds also experience volatility decay. It's why we measure returns geometrically (CAGR) instead of arithmetically. Levered funds just experience it worse.
Since I first bought UPRO:
- SPY: CAGR 13.62%
- UPRO: CAGR 26.50%
13.62 * 3 = 40.86; 40.86 - 26.50 = 14.36 of decay over my holding period. That really sucks, but I'll still take my extra 12.88% extra over SPY.
perfect news for a big short squeezeLa Bamba said:
Starting to hear murmurs of a 75 BPS increase this week.
dead serious
3730 and we bounce
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Agree. I'm trying to buy back Sold Calls from last week. If this retraces upward and I think it will, I want the ability to re-establish those Calls when it gets juiced.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I think they're going to crash it to scare people out of longs. I am less bearish without any real retracement.
I tried shorting MARA at $15 and ordered got rejected. Now I'm thinking to go long if it gets into $3-4 range. Probably better risk/reward play on BTC recovery. Worth a look if/when macro market stops bleeding.
Completely agree but why wouldn't you long BTC at that point instead?BlueTaze said:
I tried shorting MARA at $15 and ordered got rejected. Now I'm thinking to go long if it gets into $3-4 range. Probably better risk/reward play on BTC recovery. Worth a look if/when macro market stops bleeding.
This is Feeling More and More Like Capitulation Day...Treasuries Repricing
We are seeing liquidations everywhere, but it is very evident in the treasury market where 2/3 years are higher in yield by 30 basis... The bill auction today was the worst since the Lehman bankruptcy... 5/7 years are higher by 29 basis... 10 years 27... THIS IS A CAPITULATION...talk that the Fed may go 75 basis points higher in two days... Some even mentioned 100 basis... We won't rehash what we have already said, but this is a clear debacle with no liquidity... Hit a bid and get a check... No better in corporates where Hy CDX is out 42 and over 100 since last Monday... Crypto is crushed as well... Equities are getting hit hard... We will see what the Fed says...we doubt they will pile on...
We are seeing liquidations everywhere, but it is very evident in the treasury market where 2/3 years are higher in yield by 30 basis... The bill auction today was the worst since the Lehman bankruptcy... 5/7 years are higher by 29 basis... 10 years 27... THIS IS A CAPITULATION...talk that the Fed may go 75 basis points higher in two days... Some even mentioned 100 basis... We won't rehash what we have already said, but this is a clear debacle with no liquidity... Hit a bid and get a check... No better in corporates where Hy CDX is out 42 and over 100 since last Monday... Crypto is crushed as well... Equities are getting hit hard... We will see what the Fed says...we doubt they will pile on...
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AG
Was that a real 88M share spy buy at 1:12?
Looks like e-mini is going to close where it has to.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I've officially started averaging in SPY with my sidelined cash. Let's go!
Tumble Weed said:Tumble Weed said:
4140 was my chart number.
Since we busted that I am going from bull to bear.
Won't buy again until 3800.
After that 3300.
I was bullish to start the year. This reminds me of 2020 when I owned tpro and tqqq. That killed cotton knee high.
I took a closer look and would like to revise my numbers to 3723 and 3233. Below 3233 I have no clue.
My prediction from a month ago.
3723 was pretty close.
Now holding the rest of my cash for 3233.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Bought all XOM CC's to close positions. I am neutral Options and Long shares XOM. Regarding XOM, I'll re-establish CC's. This Close for XOM was interesting. Tomorrow or sometime this week my cash register is going to ring.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Agree. I'm trying to buy back Sold Calls from last week. If this retraces upward and I think it will, I want the ability to re-establish those Calls when it gets juiced.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I think they're going to crash it to scare people out of longs. I am less bearish without any real retracement.
I think it depends on the commentary. CNBC just had the WSJ guy on that broke the 75bps story this afternoon and I'm starting to convince myself that it is coming; still think that the forward guidance that comes with it will shape to direction of the market more than the increase.BREwmaster said:perfect news for a big short squeezeLa Bamba said:
Starting to hear murmurs of a 75 BPS increase this week.
dead serious
3730 and we bounce
I see it as well. dark pool I supposeCharismatic Megafauna said:
Was that a real 88M share spy buy at 1:12?
Days like today are about minimizing damage. Remember, literally everyone with a long portfolio of any kind lost money today. Shake it off and remember that this is part of life!
Tactically, we are extremely oversold AND pretty far away from the mean. I don't have my PC charts in front of me at the moment, but I think we probably closed near or below -3 ATR. We closed below the daily bolinger band and that happens sometimes, but not normally like this. I'll look later today.
Can we go lower directly? YES. Is it high probability? NO. Highest risk is to the upside from here if short.
Tactically, we are extremely oversold AND pretty far away from the mean. I don't have my PC charts in front of me at the moment, but I think we probably closed near or below -3 ATR. We closed below the daily bolinger band and that happens sometimes, but not normally like this. I'll look later today.
Can we go lower directly? YES. Is it high probability? NO. Highest risk is to the upside from here if short.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
To say a tad more. Just because we are oversold does not mean that we have to bounce. We can chop around here for a day or more, which is sort of what I think will happen. Any further resolution will happen after the fed.
I think Austin posted this, but it's probably more important what J. Pow says. They're not going to want to tank the market too much.
I've also said this before, but there is a level where the fed will buy stocks. I think if we go under 2750 on SPX, they will do that. I think we'll see 4100+ here again soon.
I think Austin posted this, but it's probably more important what J. Pow says. They're not going to want to tank the market too much.
I've also said this before, but there is a level where the fed will buy stocks. I think if we go under 2750 on SPX, they will do that. I think we'll see 4100+ here again soon.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
To say a tad more. Just because we are oversold does not mean that we have to bounce. We can chop around here for a day or more, which is sort of what I think will happen. Any further resolution will happen after the fed.
I think Austin posted this, but it's probably more important what J. Pow says. They're not going to want to tank the market too much.
I've also said this before, but there is a level where the fed will buy stocks. I think if we go under 2750 on SPX, they will do that. I think we'll see 4100+ here again soon.
Disagree- the Fed would MUCH rather tank the stock markets by jawboning
than be forced to continue to raise rates into a 31 trillion dollar debt and lead to serious long term recession.
SoTXAg09 said:
He means buying VTI when SPX is at 3800. I think.
Exactly and I've been on The road today. But I'm sure I'll get a chance to take a big old bite to VTI tomorrow or the next day.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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CompletedFarmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Orders in to Buy to Close the CC's from Friday.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Completed.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Decided to roll my XOM CC's 6/10 $99's to 6/17 $102's at even money.
What a day! The spanking continues.
Trying to roll the 6/10 $105's to 6/17 at $0.45 = * FILLED *
Trying to roll the 6/10 $107's to 6/17 at $0.19 = * FILLED *
The 6/10 $111's I'm letting expire
I think I'm calling it a day.
BTHOL!
ESPN 7:30pm
Trying to Buy To Close the 6/17 $105's at $0.06 = * FILLED @ $0.08 *
Trying to Buy To Close the 6/17 $107's at $0.03 = * FILLED @ $0.04 *
I think the "Fed put" is gone this time around; yah if we hit 2750 something may happen but that means that we have much larger issues than we currently know about.$30,000 Millionaire said:
To say a tad more. Just because we are oversold does not mean that we have to bounce. We can chop around here for a day or more, which is sort of what I think will happen. Any further resolution will happen after the fed.
I think Austin posted this, but it's probably more important what J. Pow says. They're not going to want to tank the market too much.
I've also said this before, but there is a level where the fed will buy stocks. I think if we go under 2750 on SPX, they will do that. I think we'll see 4100+ here again soon.
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