just saw this...
lots of overnight collapse bets... TSLA 500 P's hitting for this week..
Ouch!
lots of overnight collapse bets... TSLA 500 P's hitting for this week..
Ouch!
Stock Markets
25,125,473 Views |
233845 Replies |
Last: 8 min ago by $30,000 Millionaire
0 for 3 on trades today. Held one way too long. Oh well. Try again tomorrow!
-16.79%
I'd flag that too.
-16.79%
I'd flag that too.
Fed priorities are price stability and employment.
Employment is gonna go out the window. Don't think there's any hope they achieve both.
But if we don't reign in inflation, we become a banana republic and people will act irrationally if they are starving. I suspect they keep raising rates. We are at 8.6% inflation, and everyone was so confident it peaked a month ago. The goal is 2%. It will take a while.
I am not sure there is a Fed put. Maybe at extremely low levels but not sure we are close. At those levels, most everyone will be blown out anyway. Except us here on TexAgs :-).
People have whispered for 6 months or more that supply chain disruptions (namely EV batteries, chips, etc.) will continue until late 2023. So that's my timeline. 15-18 more months of max pain. But I don't expect a v-shaped recovery this time. That only happens with QE. Coincidentally, that's about the time the Fed winds down QT.
Employment is gonna go out the window. Don't think there's any hope they achieve both.
But if we don't reign in inflation, we become a banana republic and people will act irrationally if they are starving. I suspect they keep raising rates. We are at 8.6% inflation, and everyone was so confident it peaked a month ago. The goal is 2%. It will take a while.
I am not sure there is a Fed put. Maybe at extremely low levels but not sure we are close. At those levels, most everyone will be blown out anyway. Except us here on TexAgs :-).
People have whispered for 6 months or more that supply chain disruptions (namely EV batteries, chips, etc.) will continue until late 2023. So that's my timeline. 15-18 more months of max pain. But I don't expect a v-shaped recovery this time. That only happens with QE. Coincidentally, that's about the time the Fed winds down QT.
Lots of new bears at the lows.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I'm someone who hasn't been allowed to trade for a long time due to restrictions from my type of employment (I could basically just buy ETFs and mutual funds, individual stocks were a nightmare to get approved).
Now that I'm free of those restrictions after a career change, I'd like to get back in the game.
Who is the best trading platform with the best data and charts? Who do you all use?
Now that I'm free of those restrictions after a career change, I'd like to get back in the game.
Who is the best trading platform with the best data and charts? Who do you all use?
I like how everyone is a Fed expert right now too.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I like how everyone is a Fed expert right now too.
Tack on their revised recession estimates from 20% to 50% as well lol. Clowns.
Moved on from a Big 4 accounting firm? Congrats!Buck Compton said:
I'm someone who hasn't been allowed to trade for a long time due to restrictions from my type of employment (I could basically just buy ETFs and mutual funds, individual stocks were a nightmare to get approved).
Now that I'm free of those restrictions after a career change, I'd like to get back in the game.
Who is the best trading platform with the best data and charts? Who do you all use?
Ags2013 said:Completely agree but why wouldn't you long BTC at that point instead?BlueTaze said:
I tried shorting MARA at $15 and ordered got rejected. Now I'm thinking to go long if it gets into $3-4 range. Probably better risk/reward play on BTC recovery. Worth a look if/when macro market stops bleeding.
The small BTC miners are like 3x ETFs but without decay or options without IV crush and time decay. They move much more in the same direction. That's it.
Seems like everyone is calling for a 75bps rate hike Wednesday. I just don't see that happening. Say what you want about Powell and the Fed, but they've been very predictable so far. I expect them to stick with the planned 50bps rate hike and we get a rally. A 75bps rate hike doesn't fix the supply chain issues and causes panic in the market, which Powell wants to avoid.
Consulting side of one for about 7 years, primarily M&A. Just didn't want to do the partner push over the next 2 years.bigtoneag said:Moved on from a Big 4 accounting firm? Congrats!Buck Compton said:
I'm someone who hasn't been allowed to trade for a long time due to restrictions from my type of employment (I could basically just buy ETFs and mutual funds, individual stocks were a nightmare to get approved).
Now that I'm free of those restrictions after a career change, I'd like to get back in the game.
Who is the best trading platform with the best data and charts? Who do you all use?
I had a few individual trades, but got questioned on every one of them and was tired of it. Didn't have too much time to actually do much analysis anyway.
Buck Compton said:
I'm someone who hasn't been allowed to trade for a long time due to restrictions from my type of employment (I could basically just buy ETFs and mutual funds, individual stocks were a nightmare to get approved).
Now that I'm free of those restrictions after a career change, I'd like to get back in the game.
Who is the best trading platform with the best data and charts? Who do you all use?
I use TD Ameritrade. Used Fidelity before but I think TD's Think or Swim is superior to Fidelity's Active Trader Pro. It seems like TD has longer detailed history and the setups are easier to manage. No difference in fees as far as I know. Also the app for TD Ameritrade blows fidelity out of the water.
One feature TOS has that i find awesome is that if you draw a line on one chart it will show up on another chart for the same ticker. This has helped me draw channels on daily charts and see points of resistance or breakout in the 3/10 min chart.
Triple_Bagger said:
Seems like everyone is calling for a 75bps rate hike Wednesday. I just don't see that happening. Say what you want about Powell and the Fed, but they've been very predictable so far. I expect them to stick with the planned 50bps rate hike and we get a rally. A 75bps rate hike doesn't fix the supply chain issues and causes panic in the market, which Powell wants to avoid.
I am not even remotely qualified to do anything other guess wildly but I tend to agree with this. Since before rate hikes even started, Powell has wanted to telegraph his moves before making them to avoid spooking the market. I don't see him springing a 75bps move on us this time, although I could see him saying it will be on the table (or even possibly likely) next time to give the markets time to adjust expectations.
Including you...$30,000 Millionaire said:
I like how everyone is a Fed expert right now too.
Yee Haw!
/Insert Slim Pickens on the bomb going down......
I have no cash to speak of now.
Ironically, my ONLY green stock is
BMIX
Brazil Minerals, Inc.
0.0104
+0.0017
+19.54%
/Insert Slim Pickens on the bomb going down......
I have no cash to speak of now.
Ironically, my ONLY green stock is
BMIX
Brazil Minerals, Inc.
0.0104
+0.0017
+19.54%
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
Sep 25, 2017
Posts:
5,416
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I agree with your statement entirely. Not only that a 75bps can't fix the supply chain and nor will a 50bps. In addition, Powell doesn't control the price of gasoline or crude, doesn't control the Russia/Ukraine war and doesn't control the China lock downs induced by another round of COVID that impacts supply-chains too. These are the supporting reasons why Powell stated he cannot guarantee a soft-landing. I'm not fond of Powell and I do believe he telegraphs openly. I have no reason to suspect surprises from Powell.Triple_Bagger said:
Seems like everyone is calling for a 75bps rate hike Wednesday. I just don't see that happening. Say what you want about Powell and the Fed, but they've been very predictable so far. I expect them to stick with the planned 50bps rate hike and we get a rally. A 75bps rate hike doesn't fix the supply chain issues and causes panic in the market, which Powell wants to avoid.
I just got off the banned camp bus. Damn, what a crappy day to be unable to interact.
Anyway, all the bear talk is a good thing because that usually indicates we might be close to a bottom. Stay cautious, but I agree with 30K, I wouldn't be shorting at these levels or going balls deep into short term puts. Don't try to think a stock is way too cheap if it's for a trade, because you don't want to catch a falling knife.
Missed you guys.
Without knowing what type of trading you do, I prefer TD Ameritrade. It's easy to use and TOS is great. They also have excellent tutorials (videos) that help you learn new things. Their paper trading option on TOS is great to test new things without losing your ass.Buck Compton said:
I'm someone who hasn't been allowed to trade for a long time due to restrictions from my type of employment (I could basically just buy ETFs and mutual funds, individual stocks were a nightmare to get approved).
Now that I'm free of those restrictions after a career change, I'd like to get back in the game.
Who is the best trading platform with the best data and charts? Who do you all use?
Welcome to the clubhouse.
Going to jail like a regular thing for you?!? Hahaha. I always felt bad enough about being put in timeout by my parents for 5 minutes. I couldn't bear banned camp.
What's your call? Rally to 3920 then another leg down?
What's your call? Rally to 3920 then another leg down?
When I joined TexAgs I did it to follow recruiting and then I found F16. Politics has always been a passion of mine. In the beginning I had my own cabin at banned camp. I'm aggressive and I respect different opinions and perspectives, but you need to be able to back up your convictions. I love to debate and I've learned from seeing things from other angles, but I've been a major ******* too. People regurgitating talking points without the facts to support their positions annoy me.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Going to jail like a regular thing for you?!? Hahaha. I always felt bad enough about being put in timeout by my parents for 5 minutes. I couldn't bear banned camp.
What's your call? Rally to 3920 then another leg down?
That said, I've mellowed some with age, but I have my moments when I cross the line. This thread and community in here is the main reason why. In a fit of anger I've been tempted to blow up my account with a post that would permaban me for life, even if I made a sock. This thread is what prevented me from doing it because this place is special and I'd miss not being able to be a part of it. The sharing of experiences, coaching, encouragement and respect that is freely given is something that doesn't exist in the world, especially on the internet. That is what I'd miss and miss out on.
Now, back to markets. I love technical analysis, but based on my experience, it means exactly dick in this type of environment. This market is driven by emotion and news, making support, bear flags, resistance, etc. almost worthless. I still believe that capitulation is important and we may be seeing that now. IMO, the higher CPI last week than the month before spooked the markets because inflation appears to not have topped out. I don't think any meaningful rally with conviction happens until that happens. I suspect the markets would react better with a 75-100 basis point increase this week and might react negatively with only a 50 basis point raise. I guess we'll see.
Wife literally just asked me…"what's going on with the stock market?"
Me- "what do you mean"?
Her - " Everyone on my FB feed saying it's a bloodbath"
Think we get a bounce tomorrow
Me- "what do you mean"?
Her - " Everyone on my FB feed saying it's a bloodbath"
Think we get a bounce tomorrow
insulator_king said:
Yee Haw!
/Insert Slim Pickens on the bomb going down......
I have no cash to speak of now.
Ironically, my ONLY green stock is
BMIX
Brazil Minerals, Inc.
0.0104
+0.0017
+19.54%
it's been on a good run the last few days... maybe something good is about to happen!
I suspect that we will be choppy tomorrow but might see a bounce start. If the fed raises 75bps I think the market will rally off the decision. Who knows really, and I usually am in and out of most of my trades. No overnighters for me right now, too risky. We will see a lower spy in the 350 range soon though. The pain is not over.
As bad as today was, we are still trading within the channel.
Bitcoin 21K
I always think about that nfl player that took part of his pay in bitcoin.
Russell Okung, I think. Hope he spent it all on strippers and booze.
Bet Michael Saylor is drinking hard tonight. He may get margin called within 2 days.
I'm curious to know how exposed our big banks are to crypto. Bunch of articles in last 2 yrs about banks wanting access/exposure to crypto market. Question is degree of leverage and exposure? Don't think they ever said how aggressively they pursued it.
Bet Michael Saylor is drinking hard tonight. He may get margin called within 2 days.
I'm curious to know how exposed our big banks are to crypto. Bunch of articles in last 2 yrs about banks wanting access/exposure to crypto market. Question is degree of leverage and exposure? Don't think they ever said how aggressively they pursued it.
There is nothing wrong with Bitcoin.
BREAKING: Nearly $103 Million worth of MicroStrategy's #Bitcoin has been liquidated amid massive $BTC sell-off below $21,000 support. pic.twitter.com/cndwTae2Ej
— CryptoWhale (@CryptoWhale) June 14, 2022
Maybe sooner than 2 days. Maybe I'll invite Saylor over for a drink. Doubt he can afford anymore what's in my stash. He may be drinking Kentucky Deluxe before the week is over.
I was happy with my $400 I made on my MSTR $150 puts today. Oh man.
I'm really tempted to sell puts on $COIN at the $40 strike.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Ive learned IPOs during major QE liquidity events are a total scam and distribution of wealth from retail to Wall St. Not even talking about the SPACs which were transparent.
JUST IN: Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy #Bitcoin investment is now at a $1,260,000,000 unrealized loss.
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) June 14, 2022
#NewProfilePic pic.twitter.com/Y37Eam1Bcl
— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) June 13, 2022
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