I don't think SNAP was really the cause. It's just a convenient thing.

Currencies drive bonds
Bonds drive stocks
Stocks drive options

Really that simple.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Heavy put buying in SPY options. Volume on 5/25 385P is 215K.

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Not putting on a tinfoil hat but I wonder if the huge buying of puts on SPY/QQQ the last 2 days has anything to do with Davos. You have a meeting of the elite deciding what is good for us rubes and then volume of SPY puts jumps. Just something to think about. If anyone knew what was coming you can bet those asses would be the one to know.

Anoyone know where AustinAg has been with his updates? Really enjoyed reading through those. Hope he is just on vacation!

What a roller coaster. Had to exit a trade early due to being away (ended up running 60%). Would have put me closer to 5% on day.

Also I forgot to close a limit buy on a QQQ call it went through later when I was done for the day. Luckily it was a decent entry at a reversal level that I closed out for a tiny profit. All of this was trading QQQ 1DTE

HEB here in Austin

BrokeAssAggie said:

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HEB here in Austin

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How is no one going for those m&m yogurt things? Beggars can't be choosers.

Howdy Gents!

Hope y'all did great today. I'm jealous I can't be in the sandbox all day with y'all. Really enjoyed last week.

One trade today. Maybe I can try another tomorrow.

This looks a lot like Ackmans hand ringing at covid bottom except this time it's for tightening not loosening.

Inflation is out of control. Inflation expectations are getting out of control. Markets are imploding because investors are not confident that the @federalreserve will stop inflation. If the Fed doesn’t do its job, the market will do the Fed’s job, and that is what

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) May 24, 2022

Summer of George meant that the market would do the opposite of what you thought it would last year. Everyone thought it would go down, so it went up instead.

I don't know if he's just spiking the football or implying something, but he's been posting banana pictures (liquidity). I think up is the most likely.

If you guys want, I can get a meeting with him.

XXXVII said:

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I'd really like to know what positive news about the summer is making people think there's going to be some big rally upwards.

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The market continuously discounts information and tends to be about 6 months in front of what will actually happen. The real question that should be asked right now is "what is already priced in?". The second question that should be asked is "what is uncertain and how could that change things?"

I think inflation is already factored in, but to what degree? I think slowing growth is already priced in. You're seeing that in the high beta stocks getting murdered. Daniel warned everyone about this like a year ago. Another question to ask is "what news would make it worse?". Certain bad news confirms what has been priced in and that in turn stops becoming a variable and therefore can make things bounce.

Like I posted earlier:

• Government policies and currencies influence commodities
• Commodities influence rates
• Rates drive bond pricing
• Bonds drive stocks
• Stocks drive options (along with volatility)

Strong dollar has influenced stocks. A lot.

What could drive the market up? Anything!
End of Ukraine war, positive economic news, central bank action in July, emotional belief that the worst is behind us. I do think we'll get a recession, but I don't think it's going to be 2008 or 1929. For one, the world was on a gold standard in 1929, and the fed royally screwed up.

Don't forget that if things get bad, the fed will buy SPY, DIA, QQQ, and IWM.

Quote:

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Been raining all day over SW Kansas. Good for our country, but I'm not sure WEAT will pop.

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Psychologically, the rain may influence the Futures market for a day or two until someone with some sense is able to communicate with the trader masses that you can't give a cup of water to a dead man. The wheat crop will not receive any benefit from these rains. It's over. The crop is not going to produce anymore then what is currently in the spike(head). The rain could actually hurt the crops intended to be harvested. Any high winds could blow the crop over. The truth will come out on wheat. It will be a tight supply from this year until next harvest.

Ukraine as an exporter, I wouldn't count on it.
India is banning exports due to drought and a skimpy crop.

Side note: My line is, "You can always feed wheat, but you can't force people to eat cornbread". That translates to, a huge crop of wheat is great. You feed people and if there is too much you can feed the excess to animals. However, if you have a small crop of wheat, maybe not everyone gets wheat bread, but you can't force people to eat cornbread. North of Oklahoma, wheat is it. South of Oklahoma folks are more accepting of cornbread. Further, all these folks that cuss corn going to ethanol and stand firm it should be used for food, well, those people might get a chance to practice what they preach and eat cornbread for quite some time. I hope they like it a lot.

I had a similar discussion in another thread about feeding wheat to animals and someone posted a one-off event of a problem feeding wheat to a chicken. I didn't go back to correct this person, but I'll bet you one thing, I've sold more wheat to cattle in feedyards then that person posting could dream about. Second, since that poster focused on chickens, I can guarantee I bought more wheat for our broiler operation (at the time it was 5th largest broiler producer in the U.S.) then that poster could dream about. Yes, you can feed wheat to chickens! Your Nutritionist just needs to know what the eff they're doing. I would caution feeding to hogs, they're pretty damn sensitive when it comes to feeding them wheat and without getting into detail, it can cause a sow to abort piglets. It's risky.