I have a 100 shares of UVXY that I have made a decent profit on. Wondering if I should dump them before tomorrow. As soon as I do, we will be down another 1000 tomorrow and it will be up $2-$3.
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Last: 9 hrs ago by ProgN
Jet Black said:
What is the bet for tomorrow? Up? Down? Asteroid crushes wall st?
The most recent two times that we've had breakdowns from the previous range (5/5 and 5/11), the day after the breakdowns have been gap downs that ended up red, with close ending very near the open.
GreasenUSA said:Jet Black said:
What is the bet for tomorrow? Up? Down? Asteroid crushes wall st?
The most recent two times that we've had breakdowns from the previous range (5/5 and 5/11), the day after the breakdowns have been gap downs that ended up red, with close ending very near the open.
Thanks
Didn't spend much time trading today. All QQQ paper cut and 2 tiny wins. All puts.
Spent the day building a pergola to add some shade to the patio.
Spent the day building a pergola to add some shade to the patio.
It is really really hard to say what happens.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I'm not one to judge her weight. I have no idea why she is or what challenges she may face. IMO it's not spin though. Just don't remember a time when being overweight was something that was glorified or celebrated much less put in the front cover of SI.tejas_ayanem said:
Some of you spin stuff more than Fox news/CNN.
There are three other SI Cover girls too.Wow! My dream to be on the cover of @SI_SwimSuit came true! Proud to be on the cover of such an Iconic Magazine & to join the list of elite women that have come before me! Thanks to the SI team for choosing me to be your Cover Girl. Gonna be makin that thang JUMP today! It’s a 🎉 pic.twitter.com/H7aIY9wimE
— Ciara (@ciara) May 16, 2022
There's been multiple cover models for a while if I remember correctly.
This too will pass......
Tough trading. Bear flagging until it isn't I guess. There is a bottom somewhere.$30,000 Millionaire said:
It is really really hard to say what happens.
Let's just hope we don't have a catalyst that really dumps things.
Looks like the MACD crossed the Signal line for WWR. Maybe we're nearing the bottom.
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McKinney Ag69 said:
Looks like the MACD crossed the Signal line for WWR. Maybe we're nearing the bottom.
I should have posted last week on this but got super busy. ASO is having major supply chain issues is the word around H town. Not that everyone isn't, but I expect it to fall into the 20s maybe mid 20's after earnings. Think that would be a good time to back up the dump truck. They will get it worked out and they have a super low PE if people still pay attention to things like that.
Sure seems like things are going to get much uglier before they get better.
Bearish engulfing candle today on daily….couple typical follow up scenarios:
1. Inside day or double inside day (possible since OpEx week)
2. Follow through with continued downward move
(Not sure why I'm telling you this you're one of top 3 traders on here. I'm bottom two or three.)
We did just eclipse a Model T between 3858 low and 4300 high from a few weeks back. If we don't make a lower low here, we could see a more robust reflex rally (suspect we will make a lower low).
I think we are gonna retrace 50% from COVID low to ATH that puts things in 3500 range. No idea if we go directly there flagging as we have been or we get a false breakout before then.
I closed my puts too early today and left to go and play golf. But I'm trying to avoid FOMO and OpEx devoured me 2 months ago. Will trade better than I have been and I'm just trying to pick up cash here and there when this thing finds a bottom.
1. Inside day or double inside day (possible since OpEx week)
2. Follow through with continued downward move
(Not sure why I'm telling you this you're one of top 3 traders on here. I'm bottom two or three.)
We did just eclipse a Model T between 3858 low and 4300 high from a few weeks back. If we don't make a lower low here, we could see a more robust reflex rally (suspect we will make a lower low).
I think we are gonna retrace 50% from COVID low to ATH that puts things in 3500 range. No idea if we go directly there flagging as we have been or we get a false breakout before then.
I closed my puts too early today and left to go and play golf. But I'm trying to avoid FOMO and OpEx devoured me 2 months ago. Will trade better than I have been and I'm just trying to pick up cash here and there when this thing finds a bottom.
CEI small cap energy play either going to crash or skyrocket on Friday when delinquent SEC filings come due.
Old Zack Morris pump and dump trying to catch a 2nd wind....for anyone looking to lotto or spread trade.
Old Zack Morris pump and dump trying to catch a 2nd wind....for anyone looking to lotto or spread trade.
BlueTaze said:
CEI small cap energy play either going to crash or skyrocket on Friday when delinquent SEC filings come due.
Old Zack Morris pump and dump trying to catch a 2nd wind....for anyone looking to lotto or spread trade.
Comming down to wire for CEO to file everything by 5/20....
You can cross the next one off the list. It has been filed...will show up in the a.m.
— James Doris (@JamesDoris19) May 19, 2022
McKinney Ag69 said:
Looks like the MACD crossed the Signal line for WWR. Maybe we're nearing the bottom.
I'm only laughing to keep from crying.
I looked through their 10Q, what an absolute dumpster fire.BlueTaze said:
Comming down to wire for CEO to file everything by 5/20....You can cross the next one off the list. It has been filed...will show up in the a.m.
— James Doris (@JamesDoris19) May 19, 2022
And audited by a firm called Turner Stone & Company, that should help you sleep at night.
You read a 2 yr old 10Q? I think the 2022 filings might be more relevant. There was already a big short report on the dumpster fire stuff, so everything going forward hinges on simple paperwork filing on time (basically next 48hrs). I'm definitely not a confident long, but there is near term predictable volatility.
Semiconductor late night thoughts:
AMD, ON & NVDA all came crashing back down. More so AMD. It was nice to make up the money lost on bad puts yesterday with puts on these today. More importantly though is the potential for next week lotto plays. If these three can come back down further I think they could be prime for 5/27 leaps. Key will be to wait for confirmation that either QQQ or SPY is turning around.
AAPL is the stock i will be watching for turn around signal. Today it hugged its down trend line until 2 pm CST. If it can show strength and flip that trend that will be my signal to start entering into calls for the semi conductors.
If you are trading TSLA be nimble get in and get out. There are plenty of bunt single opportunities to rack up $s.Today I was successful watching AAPL and anytime a big deviation from the downtrend happened or AAPL pushed up hard to its downtrend line i got into TSLA puts/calls. This strategy required using AAPL as the signal for incoming market drop/push up which would cause more violent swings in TSLA price allowing for quick 10-20% profit on the option. Now tomorrow AAPL could be all over the place so this strategy may not be repeatable. Yesterday it was MSFT moving the market and influencing TSLA which I didn't notice until EOD and leaving me with a wash TSLA trading performance.
AMD, ON & NVDA all came crashing back down. More so AMD. It was nice to make up the money lost on bad puts yesterday with puts on these today. More importantly though is the potential for next week lotto plays. If these three can come back down further I think they could be prime for 5/27 leaps. Key will be to wait for confirmation that either QQQ or SPY is turning around.
AAPL is the stock i will be watching for turn around signal. Today it hugged its down trend line until 2 pm CST. If it can show strength and flip that trend that will be my signal to start entering into calls for the semi conductors.
If you are trading TSLA be nimble get in and get out. There are plenty of bunt single opportunities to rack up $s.Today I was successful watching AAPL and anytime a big deviation from the downtrend happened or AAPL pushed up hard to its downtrend line i got into TSLA puts/calls. This strategy required using AAPL as the signal for incoming market drop/push up which would cause more violent swings in TSLA price allowing for quick 10-20% profit on the option. Now tomorrow AAPL could be all over the place so this strategy may not be repeatable. Yesterday it was MSFT moving the market and influencing TSLA which I didn't notice until EOD and leaving me with a wash TSLA trading performance.
XXXVII said:BlueTaze said:
CEI small cap energy play either going to crash or skyrocket on Friday when delinquent SEC filings come due.
Old Zack Morris pump and dump trying to catch a 2nd wind....for anyone looking to lotto or spread trade.
I saw where you posted this on the "Market BLEEDING today" thread on F16 but I glad that you've found our group.Quote:
Doesn't that defeat the purpose of LSI by doing three spaced out entries?
Also, why are you so sure that October is best?
1) Don't take financial advice from "Retired FBI Agent" because he's a complete dumbass with his smarmy investing advice. He doesn't know that October is the time to buy and his "buy and hold forever" always outperforms actively managing your account couldn't be any more wrong. That strategy has decimated investors in 2020 and again right now.
2) This is a trading thread, but I advise you don't attempt to trade, but I encourage you to ask questions because the amount of experience that we all share will benefit you.
That said, the amount of horrid investing advice on that thread, presented with bravado, was ******ed. I need a shower after reading through that bs. I'd bet serious money on longtime lurkers on this thread against the majority of posters on that thread would give you better guidance. Anyway, welcome to the board, we're all here to help and want the same goal.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/19/asia-markets-wall-street-losses-australia-jobs-data-currencies-oil.html
Quote:
SINGAPORE Shares in Asia-Pacific slipped Thursday morning after heavy losses on Wall Street overnight.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index led losses regionally, falling more than 3% in early trade. Shares of Chinese tech behemoth Tencent plunged 8.1% after reporting that its quarterly profit halved.
The Nikkei 225 in Japan fell 2.6% while the Topix index shed 2.13%. Japan's exports rose 12.5% year-on-year in April, data from the country's Ministry of Finance showed Thursday. That was lower than expectations for a 13.8% increase, according to Reuters.
South Korea's Kospi dropped 1.6%, while the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia slipped 1.54%.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan traded 2.21% lower.
There's currently a "bifurcation" in market sentiment, said AIA's Mark Konyn.
"On one hand, investors are sort of worried that inflation is going to take hold and hurt earnings, and change the rating on equity markets, which is obviously very damaging for investors. But on the other hand, they're equally as concerned about growth opportunities," Konyn, group chief investment officer at the firm, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Thursday.
"As we saw last night, we saw guidance from Target, we've seen guidance from Walmart suggesting that margins are under pressure and immediately investors ran for the hills," he said.
Restoration Hardware the last few years had a PE around 25. Today it's 12 PE. Berkshire increased his stake by 20% in Q1 and owns over 10% and the company has a buyback program. Earnings in a couple weeks. Stock back to pre-pandemic high.
I'm going to visit a RH this weekend to get a feel for if rich people not buying or if they have inventory issues. With earnings in a couple weeks and sentiment so negative this can surprise.
I'm going to visit a RH this weekend to get a feel for if rich people not buying or if they have inventory issues. With earnings in a couple weeks and sentiment so negative this can surprise.
MVIS at 25% short interest
MSTR at 24% short interest. MSTR held up pretty well today
MSTR at 24% short interest. MSTR held up pretty well today
RH is in my top five targets. IMO, it's cheap from a momentum standpoint but with a low float it will have violent moves, both ways, and it can't fight the negative current of the macro market. That said, when this selling does evaporate and the macro rebounds, it will go ballistic. Every fund manager knows Buffet is in this and he doesn't gamble with his money. He's not a trader so day to day price action doesn't concern him but he's a heck of a backstop and insurance policy to have behind you for a trade when this turns.Dan Scott said:
Restoration Hardware the last few years had a PE around 25. Today it's 12 PE. Berkshire increased his stake by 20% in Q1 and owns over 10% and the company has a buyback program. Earnings in a couple weeks. Stock back to pre-pandemic high.
I'm going to visit a RH this weekend to get a feel for if rich people not buying or if they have inventory issues. With earnings in a couple weeks and sentiment so negative this can surprise.
GOLDMAN: “.. clients constantly ask what to expect from equities in the event of a recession. .. Across 12 recessions since World War II, the S&P 500 index has contracted from peak to trough by a median of 24% [would mean 3650],” and an average decline of 30% [3360] ..” [Kostin] pic.twitter.com/l5DqBlnpI5
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) May 19, 2022
DubFalls said:GOLDMAN: “.. clients constantly ask what to expect from equities in the event of a recession. .. Across 12 recessions since World War II, the S&P 500 index has contracted from peak to trough by a median of 24% [would mean 3650],” and an average decline of 30% [3360] ..” [Kostin] pic.twitter.com/l5DqBlnpI5
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) May 19, 2022
Bad statistics.
Id be much more concerned with recent results then longer history. That would imply a 45-50% drop almost double.
Second I think this is a case of too little data to be relevant.
Edit: I guess you found the error. NM
I'm always interested in your long outlook, Prog. What's your 5? TTD, CZR, is PLTR still on there?ProgN said:RH is in my top five targets. IMO, it's cheap from a momentum standpoint but with a low float it will have violent moves, both ways, and it can't fight the negative current of the macro market. That said, when this selling does evaporate and the macro rebounds, it will go ballistic. Every fund manager knows Buffet is in this and he doesn't gamble with his money. He's not a trader so day to day price action doesn't concern him but he's a heck of a backstop and insurance policy to have behind you for a trade when this turns.Dan Scott said:
Restoration Hardware the last few years had a PE around 25. Today it's 12 PE. Berkshire increased his stake by 20% in Q1 and owns over 10% and the company has a buyback program. Earnings in a couple weeks. Stock back to pre-pandemic high.
I'm going to visit a RH this weekend to get a feel for if rich people not buying or if they have inventory issues. With earnings in a couple weeks and sentiment so negative this can surprise.
I don't think this was on your list, but I know a lot of folks are super bullish on SOFI in the long term?
I still don't know if I even understand what PLTR does.
Are you seeing leaps quoted out to 2027?Quote:
If these three can come back down further I think they could be prime for 5/27 leaps.
Yeah what is Carl saying? We're already past that 25% point. Is he saying we go down 50%? I'm confused
GreasenUSA said:Are you seeing leaps quoted out to 2027?Quote:
If these three can come back down further I think they could be prime for 5/27 leaps.
Next week. Leaps may not be the right term. I meant higher OTM strikes. So if AMD fell to 88 id look at $98 calls expiring next week. (Those numbers are rough example and not actual strategy i want to execute).
Corrected it to lotto instead of leap.
Haha yeah dumb me forgot even number makes the median average of 2 numbers.
I'd just be careful going long anything here. The retrace that AMD took to 104ish was the 50% retrace from recent low (high 84's from 123ish).
I think we start the next leg down here and not sure when it finds another bottom. Fed has basically promised to continue spiking rates till inflation cools off. There's no way the market has this priced in at this point because we don't know when meaningful improvement in inflation comes and who knows what companies are even left standing at that point?
A counter trend long is never bad after the bottom of a descent is seen and reversal confirmed but must do so with caution.
Good luck!
I think we start the next leg down here and not sure when it finds another bottom. Fed has basically promised to continue spiking rates till inflation cools off. There's no way the market has this priced in at this point because we don't know when meaningful improvement in inflation comes and who knows what companies are even left standing at that point?
A counter trend long is never bad after the bottom of a descent is seen and reversal confirmed but must do so with caution.
Good luck!
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