Followed this thread for a long time. Never posted. My investing life has been through 3 bears-all index and managed funds. Ive been where you are at especially 2008. I thankfully never sold. My regret is I listened to "experts" (and I'm not referring to anyone on this thread) and sat on the sidelines for too long. When I figure how much sitting on the sidelines has cost me in opportunity it makes me sick. I take it from your username you are 40ish. Be patient, keep investing and you'll be fine
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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agdaddy04 said:
I'm not looking for a pity party or anything and will just leave it at this one post but goodness I'm feeling kind of defeating right now. The amount of paper loss that I've had in my IRA since November makes me sick. Really at a point of not knowing what to do next... Kind of makes me feel like I've let my family down.
We've all been there. As far as what do to with the account from here:
1) Are there stocks that are under their 200 and 50 day exponential moving averages that you do not ever want to own again. If there are then what is your plan for them if you hold them?
2) If you have stocks that you do believe in long term but are just wondering if you should hold long-term that might depend on your investment time horizon. If you did sell what would the plan be for the cash? Would you be looking to buy back into these stocks and if so at what price if they continue going down and what stock price I'd they reverse and start coming back up?
The absolute worst thing you can do is sell near the bottom, but if you have stocks of companies that are trashed maybe you consider selling before they go to $0?
Superfreak said:
Followed this thread for a long time. Never posted. My investing life has been through 3 bears-all index and managed funds. Ive been where you are at especially 2008. I thankfully never sold. My regret is I listened to "experts" (and I'm not referring to anyone on this thread) and sat on the sidelines for too long. When I figure how much sitting on the sidelines has cost me in opportunity it makes me sick. I take it from your username you are 40ish. Be patient, keep investing and you'll be fine
Did the same and just rode it out. Always ended up better than before. The difference between trying to time the market and just staying fully invested can be significant.
How does he know where the bottoms is? I'd sell near or close to the bottom and throw it all into VOO or VTI. Let them make it back for you and take the worry away. If either of those tanks, we are all screwed.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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That's the point, we don't know where the bottom is so selling without a plan for where to put the money or what he would do as far as buying back in whether it goes up or down isn't the way. He needs a well though out plan. Putting it all in VOO might be it. Holding whatever he has or a portion of that might be a good plan of he still believes in the companies. Whatever he does, he just needs to thing it through.
Agree with several folks on this thread. The amount I've lost in the last several weeks makes me sick to my stomach. I got way too heavy tech and we all know what's happened there. I'm consolidating and trying to better diversify and move into SPY or sector ETFs like XLE or more defensive. But if I could ask you guys one question, if you were to suggest which stocks to keep or unload, what would you suggest in a basket of CRM, PYPL, SQ, NFLX, MRNA, COIN, RBLX, CRWD, UBER, and AMZN. You watch these shows on CNBC or read business articles, and these stocks are considered best of breed in their respective industries (or at the least very highly regarded before the recent downturn), but they have gotten completely beaten down so relentlessly. I just don't know which to hold and which to dump and get into other more defensive sectors. If you guys could help me clean this mess up, I would be very grateful.
jamey said:
What would after tax stuff matter on 401K? Whole thing is tax deferred right
Wasn't clear but meant for monies outside of 401k and other tax deferred accounts….basically caution with trading accounts.
planoaggie123 said:jamey said:
What would after tax stuff matter on 401K? Whole thing is tax deferred right
Wasn't clear but meant for monies outside of 401k and other tax deferred accounts….basically caution with trading accounts.
I setup a taxable account with a FA back around mid February when the S&P was around 4350 and I've been adding about $1700 a month since.
They do the picking for me though.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I would have to do a lot more DD on these companies before I would feel comfortable making investment decisions for myself on these. I will say that I have a general long-term comfort for AMZN. I also like CRM, but I did sell my calls there. I am generally avoiding PYPL, NFLX, MRNA, COIN, RBLX, and UBER. That's not to say I think they are terrible, but they are either in niches I don't understand well or are companies that I worry could get pushed out by larger competitors even though they were the first or initial name brand in their niche.
Thanks, that's a helpful start.
I am a large buyer of Salesforce products. Their technology is legit and they have great executives. Take it for what it's worth.Bob Knights Liver said:
I would have to do a lot more DD on these companies before I would feel comfortable making investment decisions for myself on these. I will say that I have a general long-term comfort for AMZN. I also like CRM, but I did sell my calls there. I am generally avoiding PYPL, NFLX, MRNA, COIN, RBLX, and UBER. That's not to say I think they are terrible, but they are either in niches I don't understand well or are companies that I worry could get pushed out by larger competitors even though they were the first or initial name brand in their niche.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I want to point something out that is slightly optimistic in the near-term. The low from Monday was tested today but held. Normally two touches is all you want to see. If this bottom holds, we should retrace to 4440, and at a minimum 4350 (38.2 fib). I'm going to post another chart on SPY because it's less marked up in my charts.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
These SPY levels are not exact, but I would expect a reaction of sorts at these levels.
I didn't highlight this, but in your own chart, you will notice there is a gap between 400 and 403 going back to April of 2021.
I didn't highlight this, but in your own chart, you will notice there is a gap between 400 and 403 going back to April of 2021.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Jet Black
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I want 380s. Somewhere there I push my chips in.$30,000 Millionaire said:
These SPY levels are not exact, but I would expect a reaction of sorts at these levels.
I didn't highlight this, but in your own chart, you will notice there is a gap between 400 and 403 going back to April of 2021.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
If a gun was up to my head and I had to buy stocks right now to hold for ten years, they would be:Bob Knights Liver said:
I would have to do a lot more DD on these companies before I would feel comfortable making investment decisions for myself on these. I will say that I have a general long-term comfort for AMZN. I also like CRM, but I did sell my calls there. I am generally avoiding PYPL, NFLX, MRNA, COIN, RBLX, and UBER. That's not to say I think they are terrible, but they are either in niches I don't understand well or are companies that I worry could get pushed out by larger competitors even though they were the first or initial name brand in their niche.
- CVX - energy
- NEM - gold
- MSFT - bulletproof tech
- AMD - semiconductors
- ADM - agriculture
- PEP - food
- UNH - healthcare
- JPM - financials
- MA - financials
- CWH - consumer discretionary
- F - automotive
- BRK/B - consumer discretionary
- BABA - china
- AA - aluminum
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I've always wondered if these charts and patterns work because there is some natural order behind them or are they self fulfilling prophecy because everyone believes
if I were balancing a 401K right now:
50% S&P index funds
25% energy
15% tech
10% china
50% S&P index funds
25% energy
15% tech
10% china
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
short term, the market trades on emotions. Long term the market trades on fundamentals.jamey said:
I've always wondered if these charts and patterns work because there is some natural order behind them or are they self fulfilling prophecy because everyone believes
Here's an example recent enough that it's relevant. See that spike in SPY from 414 to 430? this is an hourly chart. This is when J Powell said 50 basis points and the market reacted emotionally thinking Powell was dovish. See the gap down and sell off since? That's the market realizing the fed was actually hawkish on inflation.
The market tends to respect support and resistance points, which are established by price action and the emotions of fear, greed, and the pursuit of psychological safety greatly influence price. People have a tendency to panic and over react in both directions.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
General comment for those on this board and those struggling:
1) You will not make it if you don't learn to fish on your own
2) You will not make it if your risk management sucks
3) You must realize that losses are part of trading. You need more winners than losers
4) You need a plan for every trade, even scalps (e.g. I want 20% in either direction)
5) Learn to know when you need to stop, including stopping trading entirely or temporarily. It's not for everyone and the market is open 260 days a year.
6) If you're going to bag hold, bag hold quality stocks (SPY, JPM, GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, C, V, F, X, MCD, KO, BRK/B, VZ, CSCO, ADM, XOM, DAL, QQQ, MSFT, ABT, TGT, WMT, PG, CLX) - you get the point
7) Trade stocks profitably first, then trade options.
I know for a fact that many are failing on #2, exhibit A west water and go-co. 5% max size, 50% stop loss = 2.5% risk. You can recover from that.
1) You will not make it if you don't learn to fish on your own
2) You will not make it if your risk management sucks
3) You must realize that losses are part of trading. You need more winners than losers
4) You need a plan for every trade, even scalps (e.g. I want 20% in either direction)
5) Learn to know when you need to stop, including stopping trading entirely or temporarily. It's not for everyone and the market is open 260 days a year.
6) If you're going to bag hold, bag hold quality stocks (SPY, JPM, GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, C, V, F, X, MCD, KO, BRK/B, VZ, CSCO, ADM, XOM, DAL, QQQ, MSFT, ABT, TGT, WMT, PG, CLX) - you get the point
7) Trade stocks profitably first, then trade options.
I know for a fact that many are failing on #2, exhibit A west water and go-co. 5% max size, 50% stop loss = 2.5% risk. You can recover from that.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
General comment for those on this board and those struggling:
1) You will not make it if you don't learn to fish on your own
2) You will not make it if your risk management sucks
3) You must realize that losses are part of trading. You need more winners than losers
4) You need a plan for every trade, even scalps (e.g. I want 20% in either direction)
5) Learn to know when you need to stop, including stopping trading entirely or temporarily. It's not for everyone and the market is open 260 days a year.
6) If you're going to bag hold, bag hold quality stocks (SPY, JPM, GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, C, V, F, X, MCD, KO, BRK/B, VZ, CSCO, ADM, XOM, DAL, QQQ, MSFT, ABT, TGT, WMT, PG, CLX) - you get the point
7) Trade stocks profitably first, then trade options.
I know for a fact that many are failing on #2, exhibit A west water and go-co. 5% max size, 50% stop loss = 2.5% risk. You can recover from that.
Amen
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
one more thing: know why you own it. Examples:
1) LABU - really extended from the mean, buying it near zero, limited downside from here. Small risk high upside. 2% risk, I can hold indefinitely and not feel guilty if it goes to zero
2) OXY - bullish energy, great results, great prospects
3) OSTK - great value play, loyal customer base, quality management, underpriced by the market, likely to outperform. Profitable, will not fail.
4) LYFT - growing demand, overly punished by earnings, buying for gap fill, small risk.
5) CWH - 10% dividend, great management, continuing to grow in RV new/used sales, travel demand will not abate
6) WWR - spec play, driven cost to under $2 through short puts, covered calls, and share sales. Willing to take risk until $1
7) SNDL - completely net free shares (net profit is more accurate). Sell covered calls on all spikes. Betting on eventual marijuana legalization
1) LABU - really extended from the mean, buying it near zero, limited downside from here. Small risk high upside. 2% risk, I can hold indefinitely and not feel guilty if it goes to zero
2) OXY - bullish energy, great results, great prospects
3) OSTK - great value play, loyal customer base, quality management, underpriced by the market, likely to outperform. Profitable, will not fail.
4) LYFT - growing demand, overly punished by earnings, buying for gap fill, small risk.
5) CWH - 10% dividend, great management, continuing to grow in RV new/used sales, travel demand will not abate
6) WWR - spec play, driven cost to under $2 through short puts, covered calls, and share sales. Willing to take risk until $1
7) SNDL - completely net free shares (net profit is more accurate). Sell covered calls on all spikes. Betting on eventual marijuana legalization
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Got any thoughts on SOFI. I know the threat of free student loans hurts them but otherwise a non Brick and mortar bank thst give you a little something in return on checking and savings seems like a solid idea who's time has come for people to be comfortable with a bank you don't walk into
What does "buying it near zero" mean?
JMO so don't take this as gospel and do your own evals. The companies you listed are good companies but I don't like SQ, PYPL. MRNA or UBER. I don't feel comfortable with crypto so I offer no opinion on COIN. SQ and PYPL are viable as long as AAPL doesn't want that market. AAPL is a monster with the reach and money to own it. That's one hell of a predator swimming around when you're pretty much a bait fish. UBER has a solid model and best in class but with interest rates increasing they could be vulnerable. How much debt does UBER have? Most Americans have considerable credit card debt with interest rates that are increasing with each fed hike, Many of them live paycheck to paycheck and will probably curtail travel and going out do save money. Their earnings will more than likely take a hit. The public is living with Covid and the 'vaccines' are losing credibility by the day. NFLX is attractive here but don't expect an immediate move upward.EnronAg said:
Agree with several folks on this thread. The amount I've lost in the last several weeks makes me sick to my stomach. I got way too heavy tech and we all know what's happened there. I'm consolidating and trying to better diversify and move into SPY or sector ETFs like XLE or more defensive. But if I could ask you guys one question, if you were to suggest which stocks to keep or unload, what would you suggest in a basket of CRM, PYPL, SQ, NFLX, MRNA, COIN, RBLX, CRWD, UBER, and AMZN. You watch these shows on CNBC or read business articles, and these stocks are considered best of breed in their respective industries (or at the least very highly regarded before the recent downturn), but they have gotten completely beaten down so relentlessly. I just don't know which to hold and which to dump and get into other more defensive sectors. If you guys could help me clean this mess up, I would be very grateful.
jamey said:
Got any thoughts on SOFI. I know the threat of free student loans hurts them but otherwise a non Brick and mortar bank thst give you a little something in return on checking and savings seems like a solid idea who's time has come for people to be comfortable with a bank you don't walk into
Don't full port it or anything but why not. Just manage risk.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Jet Black said:
What does "buying it near zero" mean?
$10 when it was $60 a few weeks earlier
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Pin worthy. Thanks again for sharing the knowledge!$30,000 Millionaire said:
General comment for those on this board and those struggling:
1) You will not make it if you don't learn to fish on your own
2) You will not make it if your risk management sucks
3) You must realize that losses are part of trading. You need more winners than losers
4) You need a plan for every trade, even scalps (e.g. I want 20% in either direction)
5) Learn to know when you need to stop, including stopping trading entirely or temporarily. It's not for everyone and the market is open 260 days a year.
6) If you're going to bag hold, bag hold quality stocks (SPY, JPM, GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, C, V, F, X, MCD, KO, BRK/B, VZ, CSCO, ADM, XOM, DAL, QQQ, MSFT, ABT, TGT, WMT, PG, CLX) - you get the point
7) Trade stocks profitably first, then trade options.
I know for a fact that many are failing on #2, exhibit A west water and go-co. 5% max size, 50% stop loss = 2.5% risk. You can recover from that.
$30,000 Millionaire said:Jet Black said:
What does "buying it near zero" mean?
$10 when it was $60 a few weeks earlier
That's what I was thinking. Thanks!
It sucks but don't beat yourself up because we've all been there. That said, reevaluate your account. The fact it's IRA money is unfortunate because you can't easily replace it or write the losses off. That said, I believe we're close to the bottom but all stocks won't rebound like in the bull market we've had because people are reluctant. Great companies and fund faves are on sale and can build it back. Avoid buying low priced obscure names and buy fewer shares of the bigs like MSFT, AAPL, TTD (after earnings next week) AMD, NVDA etc., because they'll lead the charge when the dust clears because funds love them. If it were me I'd sell the dogs and put my money to work it the leaders. Cashing out now and just buying a growth mutual fund won't make it back. Take the risk to rebuild. JMOagdaddy04 said:
I'm not looking for a pity party or anything and will just leave it at this one post but goodness I'm feeling kind of defeating right now. The amount of paper loss that I've had in my IRA since November makes me sick. Really at a point of not knowing what to do next... Kind of makes me feel like I've let my family down.
agdaddy04 said:
I'm not looking for a pity party or anything and will just leave it at this one post but goodness I'm feeling kind of defeating right now. The amount of paper loss that I've had in my IRA since November makes me sick. Really at a point of not knowing what to do next... Kind of makes me feel like I've let my family down.
I'm there with you. I've watched my 401k drop from 310K to 190K this year. Makes me sick to my stomach. But then I look at the market. Sure, I gambled some with WWR, but what about VGT, QQQ, and a handful of mutual funds that have all tanked. Mutual funds that I spent a ton of time researching. I just don't see how a long position could be anywhere but down big right now.
Unless it is sitting in MM, everyone's 401k/IRA is probably down 10-15% this year thanks to bond funds struggling on top of equities, nowhere to hide.
401k -13.1% for 2022 probably another point or two from the high before Xmas.
I checked mine to see the damage... I'm up!Ag CPA said:
Unless it is sitting in MM, everyone's 401k/IRA is probably down 10-15% this year thanks to bond funds struggling on top of equities, nowhere to hide.
When the company transitioned the 401k during the takeover in december, it turned 100% of my money into PCRIX, which focuses on commodity prices. It's up 30% YTD so far. Because of the takeover, we didn't get access until February. Carried that 100% for 2 months. I rebalanced a month ago and left 1/3 in it.
I was up 15% going into April and up 3.3% now. I'm pleasantly surprised.
I lucked out a little as well, I rolled an old 401k into my IRA (about 25% of the total) back in December but left it in cash because I didn't have time to mess with it. That account is still down 10% YTD but it could have been worse.
That being said, wife's 401k is down around 15% and her deferred comp account is down more than that because we have around 20% allocated to a large-cap growth fund (FANG-type stuff) which got hammered last week. That fund has made us a lot of money in the past but it's time to pay the piper.
That being said, wife's 401k is down around 15% and her deferred comp account is down more than that because we have around 20% allocated to a large-cap growth fund (FANG-type stuff) which got hammered last week. That fund has made us a lot of money in the past but it's time to pay the piper.
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