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BrokeAssAggie
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7:03a, 4/4/22
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cageybee77
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In reply to Carlo4 • 7:05a, 4/4/22
AG
Carlo4 said:
Thoughts on PCRIX?

It's been, by far, the best index in my available 401k over the last year at 38% return based on commodity contracts.
pretty solid lately, but 2008/2009...ugh...would want to know more about that disaster.
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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 7:22a, 4/4/22
AG
Bob Knights Liver said:
I feel like a dumbass for not grabbing some TWTR shares or calls after Elon send out his tweet about Twitter whether Twitter allows for free speech.


Haha I mean Elon was just as likely to start his own Twitter and tank the stock, I don't think you should feel dumb. Elon is a lot of things, but predictable is not one of them.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to lobwedgephil • 7:23a, 4/4/22
AG
lobwedgephil said:
May put in a right shoulder first, but the "rippy" is probably coming.
good point, I see the same on NVDA and others. looks a bit ominous.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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7:48a, 4/4/22
AG
Re:twitter. Too early in the morning for hookers and blow?
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Boy Named Sue
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7:52a, 4/4/22
AG
WWR still a play after the weekend in Ukraine?
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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 7:57a, 4/4/22
Sponsor
AG
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Re:twitter. Too early in the morning for hookers and blow?
Trumps Truth SPAC is down 13% this morning on the news.
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sts7049
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In reply to Boy Named Sue • 8:07a, 4/4/22
AG
Boy Named Sue said:
WWR still a play after the weekend in Ukraine?
WWR play is not really related to ukraine at all IMO
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 8:07a, 4/4/22
AG
BrokeAssAggie said:

Amd up premarket though? Usually acquiring company takes a hit on these. Maybe that's not enough $ to move the needle for them?
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austinAG90
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8:11a, 4/4/22
AG
Hard to Believe the 3 Year was the Peak of the Yield Curve ...Now 20 year

In looking at the yield curve over the weekend we saw that the 3 year was the peak... Yielding more than 2's and 5's... Yielding more than 7's and 10's and even yielding more than 20 years... Very unusual, now with some steepening taking place overnight, the yield curve is 6 steeper 2/30 and 5.5 steeper 3/20's... What does this all mean?... It means the yield curve is going to be choppy, showing what we think are bad signals toward anything...especially recession.. The employment numbers on Friday were taken to be very strong by the street and we saw massive flattening... The Fed has to do more, or does it?... Odds for 50 in May were about 71% on Wirp... We now think that 50 for May is a done deal... But will it be 50 for the next 4 meetings, which is Citi's view?... We don't think so...We will know more when we see the Fed minutes on Wednesday...

Balance Sheet... Currently around 9 trillion, we expect the Fed to aggressively let treasuries and mortgages roll off on a regular basis... Our experts (me) think that the numbers will be 80 to 100 billion a month... Maybe a little lighter to start, but we see a reduction of 3 trillion in 3 years... The dart board guesses on how much a trillion is worth in basis points is currently 50, meaning two rate hikes... We lean more towards 100 or 4 rate hikes... Which is why we see less rate rises than the GS and BoA of the world...

Employment... Mission accomplished... The Friday number was the 11th consecutive number over 400,000... The longest stretch of growth since 1939... But we point out those numbers were in a country with 132 million which is now 330 million... Nonetheless the numbers show that "retirees" are coming back into the market and companies are finding employees to hire... So now the mission of the Fed moves directly to inflation...

Rates... We see 2 years with support at 2.51... 5 years 2.62, 10 years 2.61... Long bonds 2.64... We think those numbers get broken as we get closer to the next Fed meeting... Over the weekend we had Williams speaking and Daly doing an FT interview,l both hawkish ...European ECB members were out being hawkish as well... We do not see how the Fed does not go 50 in May.. And likely 75 between June and July... But from that perspective, we expect their view to slow down... If not they could disrupt the economy more than bring down inflation... The supply side, ex Russia/Ukraine, is starting to show signs of recovery... And as I said to my niece yesterday, who told me she is having to pay 10,000 over list to buy a car, that those numbers will reverse within 18 months and cars will be below list... Things will get better...

Brainard and Williams speak tomorrow on topic...Brainard on inflation and Williams on the economy... Harker on Wednesday and Bullard on Thursday...both spoke last week and will not say anything new...

Corporates... 25 billion is expected this week... But there is a LARGE ORACLE DEAL lingering in the background... That benchmark deal will affect the long end of the yield curve, which is trading on very loose stringsof liquidity... And could back up rates 5 basis or more if announced... But for now we are seeing large trading in the secondary market with over 45 billion trading a day... The HY market posted the biggest weekly gains in 15 months, with yields dropping the most in 3 months to close the week at 6.07%... There are buyers...

Equities... We read MS Mike Wilson's view in the MS outlook...we saw it again in a BB article today... We like the way he thinks, but he is incredibly bearish and his latest missive is "(BN) Morgan Stanley's Wilson Says 'Bear Market Rally' Is Now Over (1)"... Sorry Mike, you might be right over the next 6 months, but the next 4 weeks look ok to us... the latest chart on the S+P shows about another 100 points of upside.. Overnight equities did little and are now up marginally, 7 points...
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ProgN
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 8:24a, 4/4/22
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Re:twitter. Too early in the morning for hookers and blow?
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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8:28a, 4/4/22
SKEW jumps over 145. If/when we get a pullback it will likely be aggressive just like this last one. I think this sets up very well for the idea of a green run for a bit followed by a big correction.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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8:30a, 4/4/22
I'm looking at MSFT calls at the open. Weeklies, probably 300, 305, and 310. See which fills first at my prices. Green hammer on Friday, still above the 200, 9 above the 21, etc.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 8:31a, 4/4/22
305s it is for $6.80. Target to sell 5/6ths at $8.20 to go net free.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 8:37a, 4/4/22
Bob Knights Liver said:
305s it is for $6.80. Target to sell 5/6ths at $8.20 to go net free.


Filled. Net free with 1/5 of the contracts as runners. If SPX reverses then I'll hold to see how high we go. If SPX holds the red candle here for the opening 30 minutes, I'll put a sell order for $13 and see if I get a nearly 2-bagger on these.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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8:40a, 4/4/22
Wait for it, but TSLA looks like a reversal possibly if QQQ opening 15-min candle stays green and SPX closes first 15-min above 4541.20.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 8:42a, 4/4/22
Bob Knights Liver said:
Wait for it, but TSLA looks like a reversal possibly if QQQ opening 15-min candle stays green and SPX closes first 15-min above 4541.20.

SPX reversed to green. Buying 1080 TSLA calls. These move fast, so beware if you follow! If TSLA breaks the support at 1070-1073.11 from last week, I'll get out of these. Otherwise I'll hd until at least $1090 or 9:30.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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8:43a, 4/4/22
AG
50K

Selling 2 covered calls on Mara. 29. $1.1
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Brewmaster
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8:45a, 4/4/22
AG
all out on CIDM, looks like it wants to pullback more/ consolidate. I'll wait for the next dip.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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8:52a, 4/4/22
AG
50K. Selling 1 DKNG call 21C at 0.42

Ringing the cash register again on this.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 8:53a, 4/4/22
Bob Knights Liver said:
Bob Knights Liver said:
305s it is for $6.80. Target to sell 5/6ths at $8.20 to go net free.


Filled. Net free with 1/5 of the contracts as runners. If SPX reverses then I'll hold to see how high we go. If SPX holds the red candle here for the opening 30 minutes, I'll put a sell order for $13 and see if I get a nearly 2-bagger on these.

I sold all but 1 of these just now. I want to take profits.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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8:56a, 4/4/22
VIX under $20.

Look at the action on BAC on the 1-min and 5-min charts! Anyone still in this long? I thought we might see red for banks today, but that looks strong to me!
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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8:58a, 4/4/22
Selling for $31 for the TSLA 1080 calls bought under $27. My goal this week is taking profits quicker.

I'll hold the others a bit longer. I will likely sell if it gets to $1100.
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bullitt
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 8:58a, 4/4/22
AG
Still holding April 14 calls
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MaroonDynasty
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8:58a, 4/4/22
CLSK has been having a war with the 200ma.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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9:02a, 4/4/22
Setting a sell order for the remaining TSLA calls at $39.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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9:06a, 4/4/22
I'm still pissed I let those CRM call LEAPs go. Always Trust Nancy. I may have to take CRM off my main watchlist so that doesn't tilt me a little every day.
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G Money
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 9:06a, 4/4/22
AG
Bob Knights Liver said:
Setting a sell order for the remaining TSLA calls at $39.
Nice call. Bought 4/8 $1075c at $30 and sold at $43.25 nice start to the week.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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9:09a, 4/4/22
Left money on the table with TSLA, but I've had a lot of green trades go red over the past month, so I'm glad I took profit. I'm sitting on my hands for the next hour to see which way we go. Otherwise this is the point where I move to the $100 blackjack table and give it all back.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 9:10a, 4/4/22
AG
Meet at sizzler for lunch?
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Tumble Weed
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 9:10a, 4/4/22
Bob Knights Liver said:
VIX under $20.

Look at the action on BAC on the 1-min and 5-min charts! Anyone still in this long? I thought we might see red for banks today, but that looks strong to me!


I am still long on BAC.

My bank stocks are sucking wind. Down across the board.

Rethinking my position on C. It is embarrassingly bad but I am riding it out.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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9:15a, 4/4/22
WWR volume is lower but still elevated from what we were seeing before last week. We may get a move back up here. It needs to get back above the 50-day if it's going to do anything any time soon.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Tumble Weed • 9:18a, 4/4/22
I'm buying a few C calls now. $50 weeklies. Also some BAC $40 weeklies. I'll look to take profit on these if they get to Friday's opening underlying prices.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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9:37a, 4/4/22
Ok TSLA, now you're just being a jackass. And I TOTALLY respect that.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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9:45a, 4/4/22
AG
Feels like a good place to buy expiring xsp 457 for .45
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