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sts7049
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AG
the last two weeks have been great for me (just into 5 figure profits booked). unfortunately due to some awful ROKU gambles earlier this year, i'm only mildly in the green overall for the year, but that's OK. still a learning process.

i am also tracking the number of positive trades vs. negative trades for myself, and this month i had a much better win rate.
Brewmaster
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AG
FJ43 said:

How'd we do this week?
all I know is I definitely need to start playing XSP some. I missed out on a decent chunk of change by playing SPY 0dte instead of XSP before close today.


cgh1999
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AG
One of my best days in a LONG time. Bought a bunch of deep ITM leaps on RIG and TELL over the last 6 months. Today was breakout city! Combine that with all of my bank stocks up 1-2.5%, it was a very nice day!

I sold some covered calls against my shares a little early, but locked in some profits and was able to move all of my TELL shares net free.
Brewmaster
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AG
Bonfire1996 said:

Get your long term hedges In place. I've heard rumblings of a 10% inflation report coming sometime in the next two months, and with the FED going ape shlt on the dot plot with two 0.50% raises likely in May and July, this whole economy is about to have its gears stripped into reverse.

The bloodbath in November was already coming. Now add near certain recession to the forecast and I cannot imagine what our country is about to look like.
as always thanks for sharing your thoughts. Sounds like a recession is imminent now, ugh.
FJ43
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BREwmaster said:

FJ43 said:

How'd we do this week?
all I know is I definitely need to start playing XSP some. I missed out on a decent chunk of change by playing SPY 0dte instead of XSP before close today.





Never traded it. Know it's a 30k special. Guess I'm going to have to join the party.
Brewmaster
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AG
BrokeAssAggie said:

Gap up Monday..?


if we gap up monday and still no decent pullback, I'd call this a blow off top, with a pretty big sell off coming. Ouch!
time to find a beer or 3.
FJ43
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Bonfire1996 said:

Get your long term hedges In place. I've heard rumblings of a 10% inflation report coming sometime in the next two months, and with the FED going ape shlt on the dot plot with two 0.50% raises likely in May and July, this whole economy is about to have its gears stripped into reverse.

The bloodbath in November was already coming. Now add near certain recession to the forecast and I cannot imagine what our country is about to look like.


What would you see as good long term hedges? I'm always looking to try and hone to a higher level that aspect of my trading.
FJ43
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BREwmaster said:

BrokeAssAggie said:

Gap up Monday..?


if we gap up monday and still no decent pullback, I'd call this a blow off top, with a pretty big sell off coming. Ouch!
time to find a beer or 3.


If we keep going and VIX dips more Ill be buying VIX calls out a ways.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Brewmaster
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AG
I've noticed several times in the past couple weeks where if I held into the close (rather than close at 2:50 or 2:55 or so I would've made quite a bit extra (as the move just rips into the close).
Will definitely give it a try next week.

sorry, last post!
jwhitlock3
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I wasn't quick enough on MSFT and it got me, but I was playing with profits from the week and kept it small so I knew it could go to 0 and be fine.

Great week, and got the chance to unload my SNDL and push my longer term account to more cash, yall have a good weekend!
jwhitlock3
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Agreed, 4560 should be a tough point to get past and we need some energy to get through. I don't believe we have that energy without a pullback so I'll be looking for that next week to go long. Will see what Mancini has to say in his newsletter.
bhanacik
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Is there a lower priced alternative that I could trade that corresponds to SPX better than SPY?

I've been trading with SPY and noticed it doesn't correlate precisely with SPX
FJ43
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bhanacik said:

Is there a lower priced alternative that I could trade that corresponds to SPX better than SPY?

I've been trading with SPY and noticed it doesn't correlate precisely with SPX
SPY is closer to ES
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

slacker00
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AG
XSP is the smaller size SPX
Bonfire1996
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AG
FJ43 said:

Bonfire1996 said:

Get your long term hedges In place. I've heard rumblings of a 10% inflation report coming sometime in the next two months, and with the FED going ape shlt on the dot plot with two 0.50% raises likely in May and July, this whole economy is about to have its gears stripped into reverse.

The bloodbath in November was already coming. Now add near certain recession to the forecast and I cannot imagine what our country is about to look like.


What would you see as good long term hedges? I'm always looking to try and hone to a higher level that aspect of my trading.

Lotto puts on tech that isn't profitable and built its capital structure with debt.
Sin stocks, but I wouldn't even go there.
Lotto puts on production home builders trading at 15x multiples or greater.
Morgan Stanley is going to rake. 1. Volatility 2. Margin debt that floats the interest rates higher
Citibank because they dropped salaries in firing unvaxxed and they have floating rate credit card debt.
Ford: selling every vehicle they make and Ford credit about to get juiced by rates

But most of all, Cash as a position is about to get a 2-5% return. Then Buy GOOGL on the recession dip, the best balance sheet in the world, who has just scratched the surface on how to make money on TV and cloud.
ProgN
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FJ43 said:

ProgN said:

FJ43 said:

BrokeAssAggie said:

bullitt said:

Made a little a on my first option. The Q one you posted so thanks!


We got another one, boys!

It's addicting !!!
"The first one's free dawg, if you want more I have to charge you".

Brother I got to thinking during your most recent uncalled for ban camp trip.

Mods should add a red star next to names that achieve a certain level of bans. Keep speaking your mind bro!
Funny story about my first year of actively posting on F16 which was WAY before I found this gem of a thread. I did lurk for awhile but once I opened the can, everything changed. I was mistaken in thinking I could let my emotions takeover without repercussions.

Do you remember that TexAgs sometimes posts a year in review, posts, stars, etc? Well after my first posts during that year I replied to that thread and suggested they post the number of bans. IIRC, they replied it was something similar to, " 6+ bans, impressive". I don't think I even posted for the full year. I considered it a badge of honor, lol.

Finding this thread was the best and worst thing to happen to me. With the horrible inept moderation over the past couple of years TexAgs has lost it's allure for me, except in here. I've fought off the urge to go out with an epic post that wouldn't only permaban me, but WatchOle would ban my IP address. However, this thread brought me back to my senses. I rarely post on F16 compared to how much I used to because I respect everyone and everything about this thread and I'd miss being a part of it.


FJ43
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Bonfire1996 said:

FJ43 said:

Bonfire1996 said:

Get your long term hedges In place. I've heard rumblings of a 10% inflation report coming sometime in the next two months, and with the FED going ape shlt on the dot plot with two 0.50% raises likely in May and July, this whole economy is about to have its gears stripped into reverse.

The bloodbath in November was already coming. Now add near certain recession to the forecast and I cannot imagine what our country is about to look like.


What would you see as good long term hedges? I'm always looking to try and hone to a higher level that aspect of my trading.

Lotto puts on tech that isn't profitable and built its capital structure with debt.
Sin stocks, but I wouldn't even go there.
Lotto puts on production home builders trading at 15x multiples or greater.
Morgan Stanley is going to rake. 1. Volatility 2. Margin debt that floats the interest rates higher
Citibank because they dropped salaries in firing unvaxxed and they have floating rate credit card debt.
Ford: selling every vehicle they make and Ford credit about to get juiced by rates

But most of all, Cash as a position is about to get a 2-5% return. Then Buy GOOGL on the recession dip, the best balance sheet in the world, who has just scratched the surface on how to make money on TV and cloud.


Thanks for the insight. Much appreciated. Now time to research those that apply.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
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ProgN said:

FJ43 said:

ProgN said:

FJ43 said:

BrokeAssAggie said:

bullitt said:

Made a little a on my first option. The Q one you posted so thanks!


We got another one, boys!

It's addicting !!!
"The first one's free dawg, if you want more I have to charge you".

Brother I got to thinking during your most recent uncalled for ban camp trip.

Mods should add a red star next to names that achieve a certain level of bans. Keep speaking your mind bro!
Funny story about my first year of actively posting on F16 which was WAY before I found this gem of a thread. I did lurk for awhile but once I opened the can, everything changed. I was mistaken in thinking I could let my emotions takeover without repercussions.

Do you remember that TexAgs sometimes posts a year in review, posts, stars, etc? Well after my first posts during that year I replied to that thread and suggested they post the number of bans. IIRC, they replied it was something similar to, " 6+ bans, impressive". I don't think I even posted for the full year. I considered it a badge of honor, lol.

Finding this thread was the best and worst thing to happen to me. With the horrible inept moderation over the past couple of years TexAgs has lost it's allure for me, except in here. I've fought off the urge to go out with an epic post that wouldn't only permaban me, but WatchOle would ban my IP address. However, this thread brought me back to my senses. I rarely post on F16 compared to how much I used to because I respect everyone and everything about this thread and I'd miss being a part of it.





Prog please don't ever get perma-banned. This thread wouldnt be the same without you.

I enjoy reading the other threads here and there. Especially recruiting and Horn Tears. Game Day threads you can only laugh. Cliff jumpers galore.

As for this thread. It's special. You are an important part of that special, brother. You are often the good morning everyone sees.

Mornun Prog! In advance…..
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

ProgN
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Thanks brother and likewise. I won't facilitate a perma.
bhanacik
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AG
thanks, I know 30k has posted about XSP in the past - I'll look into using it moving forward
Bonfire1996
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AG
FJ43 said:

Bonfire1996 said:

FJ43 said:

Bonfire1996 said:

Get your long term hedges In place. I've heard rumblings of a 10% inflation report coming sometime in the next two months, and with the FED going ape shlt on the dot plot with two 0.50% raises likely in May and July, this whole economy is about to have its gears stripped into reverse.

The bloodbath in November was already coming. Now add near certain recession to the forecast and I cannot imagine what our country is about to look like.


What would you see as good long term hedges? I'm always looking to try and hone to a higher level that aspect of my trading.

Lotto puts on tech that isn't profitable and built its capital structure with debt.
Sin stocks, but I wouldn't even go there.
Lotto puts on production home builders trading at 15x multiples or greater.
Morgan Stanley is going to rake. 1. Volatility 2. Margin debt that floats the interest rates higher
Citibank because they dropped salaries in firing unvaxxed and they have floating rate credit card debt.
Ford: selling every vehicle they make and Ford credit about to get juiced by rates

But most of all, Cash as a position is about to get a 2-5% return. Then Buy GOOGL on the recession dip, the best balance sheet in the world, who has just scratched the surface on how to make money on TV and cloud.


Thanks for the insight. Much appreciated. Now time to research those that apply.

Post your findings.
sts7049
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AG
FJ43 said:


Has anyone noticed how little ARK buys lately and especially at the 'bottoms' we played? Their list used to be long each day of trades.


yes their emails have gotten pretty short. looks like today they made a few buys though
spud1910
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AG
Hang around. This one is not the same without you.
planoaggie123
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AG
Many of us appreciate your insight. I am not a day trader but I look forward to your posts and learn a lot. I have made a few long buys on them and have no regrets thus far.

I also struggle with moderation on other forums but I am trying to calm it down and learn what matters and this thread is worth not "making a point" elsewhere.
frankm01
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ProgN
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planoaggie123 said:

Many of us appreciate your insight. I am not a day trader but I look forward to your posts and learn a lot. I have made a few long buys on them and have no regrets thus far.

I also struggle with moderation on other forums but I am trying to calm it down and learn what matters and this thread is worth not "making a point" elsewhere.
Agreed, I have no desire to lose access to this thread. My emotions are in check so I'm good. I did not deserve that last ban though,



J/K but you know I had to post a gif.
BrokeAssAggie
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Lots a homo going on in here tonight. Need rally ass
ProgN
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I hope you step on a Lego in your "get away place" barefoot.
Brewmaster
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AG
ProgN said:

I hope you step on a Lego in your "get away place" barefoot.
hahaha... and spill beer from your dirty koozie that looks like junior shat on it. LOLOL
frankm01
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BrokeAssAggie said:

Lots a homo going on in here tonight. Need rally ass


How bout rally bewbs!
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
FJ43 said:

sellthefarm said:

What's the long term play for O&G stocks? I bought some OVV at the bottom and wondering if I should sell some and get into something else while the price is sky high. Or is O&G just a good long term hold? I'm not a trader just bought some stuff during Covid and trying to figure out what to do now.

Username checks out.

Kidding of course. Oil stocks have had big moves. Probably still have some room. If your way up maybe set some trailing stops or stops limits and ease them up along the way. No sense letting solid profits go to waste.

I would have sold it all today, if i had held it that long (i wouldn't have!). Sell it all. This price environment is unprecedented. Oil could go up from here but it's much more likely to go down
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I do like that the mods here don't say anything when I bypass the filters and put choice words in charts.

Whoever the mod is for this thread is pretty cool.

You're not so bad yourself
FJ43
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5:30AM EST
Traeger at 225 degrees
Brisket has sweated for an hour dry rubbed
Brisket in smoker
Whole chickens rubbed and ready
Father and sons cooking some meat.

This is why I trade


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

BaylorSpineGuy
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Send pics when it's finished. I'm sure they'll turn out great. Better than the Lincoln Riley saw dust. I'm sure you saw that….
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
As long as it's better than John Cornyn's brisket.
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