BREwmaster said:

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oh and post juan el page 5000!

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Out at 4.42

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Bonfire1996 said:

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Rates discussion update:

- Current interest on Federal Debt: $467 Billion annually
- Most Treasuries are short term
- For every 1% increase in rates, add $300 Billion annually to the interest expense

Now ask yourself when analysts talk about hiking 5,6,7 times. Is the US Govt goi g to allow the FED to more than double it's annual debt service? Hell no. That means inflation will not be stopped until an economic slowdown stops it.

Trade wisely with this info. How will I play it?

1. Ride the run up in banks anticipating profits from stupid analyst predictions of 7 rate hikes. Dump them after two rate hikes
2. Jump into more tech infrastructure as rates don't rise that much.

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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50K account. Buying 100 shares of CENX. Aluminum play.

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McInnis 03 said:

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AG 2000' said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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Looking at playing Disney by buying some logner dated calls and selling some of this Fridays calls against them as the premium is high today with ER today.

Ok, just legged into a calendar spread.

Bought APR 155C for $4.25
Sold FEB11 155c for $1.48

This is a bullish (because obviously Permabull Mc is Permabull) play that buys me a little time and should DIS stay at or under 155 this Friday allows me to keep some premium that's inflated due to earnings.

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Interesting.

So let's say Disney beats and runs hard and ends up at 160 this week.

How will that work?

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We'd have good decisions we need to make.

Let's assume your scenario...

The near term short call (Feb11 155c) likely is slightly above $5 on Friday, maybe $5.50 or $5.75.......(intrinsic value + premium) and my long call (apr 155c) is likely doing better too, currently it's a.34 delta but as value exceeds the strike delta will increase. Say it trends to about 50+ delta.....meaning the call itself would jump maybe to $11 give or take, I dunno.....

1) I can close the entire spread ( Sell for $11, Buy back the $5.50, and I get to keep the change). I still profit because I net paid $2.77 for this spread. Selling for $5.50 or so Friday would be pretty fabulous.
2) I can roll the short call out/up (on a drastic move ABOVE 155 this may not be a good play, best to close and look for other things)
3) I can let the short call get executed and get hosed (get paid $155 for my "100 shares" which I do not have, so I'd have to exercise my long call to have those 100 shares which eliminates my premium value). Do not do this.

If the equity rockets past the short call, it's time to take some action in the form of 1 or 2.

In any event of a sub $155 close Friday, I can keep the premium on the short call, thereby lowering my burden.


This spread allows me to take a direction, but also try to profit from the high near term Implied Volatility associated with this earnings release.


Hopefully we don't do a lesson on what happens to calendar spreads tomorrow on a Disney Tank lol.

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