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24,035,476 Views | 231635 Replies | Last: 28 min ago by ProgN
GreasenUSA
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In reply to ProgN • 9:27p, 2/8/22
AG
ProgN said:
aggiedaniel06 said:
That is the good idea. My first note might have not been clear
Surprise earnings beat = gap up and drift upwards.
Surprise miss = gap down and drift downwards.
Daniel is absolutely correct. FB will more than likely go lower, just as AMD will probably go higher. Too many people try to outthink the market and buy calls on FB and puts on AMD. Those are both losing trades most of the time. I'm not speaking for Daniel and he can opine if he thinks I'm wrong.

Will FB be higher in a year, probably. However don't try to guess with options. JMO
My best trades over the past few days have been shorts on FB. I do think it will have will have some nice bounce days here and there, and once it finally enters the gap and corresponds with a bull market, will be a good trend trader.

As far as PEAD, GOOGL is an interesting (outlying) case. It has sold off nearly 10% from its post earnings gap up and closed the gap today. I'm going to evaluate in the morning entering a long above today's high (2800) with a couple of targets along the way to 3000, and a stop at today's low (2740). Will give it more thought in the morning, as I generally hate trading GOOGL, but I like this risk/reward.
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lobwedgephil
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 9:31p, 2/8/22
They hammered the Russell with put flow, end of day. But, could also be hedges and they are massively long.
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ProgN
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In reply to GreasenUSA • 9:36p, 2/8/22
Keep this in the back of your mind as well. Remember in December when people sold stocks for tax loss selling? Well those same rules apply in February too. Retail and institutions booked losses for this year in FB so they can't buy it back for 31 days or they'd take it in the ass twice. They'll come back into it when they can but without buyers FB will drift lower more than likely. JMO
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GreasenUSA
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In reply to ProgN • 9:39p, 2/8/22
AG
ProgN said:
Keep this in the back of your mind as well. Remember in December when people sold stocks for tax loss selling? Well those same rules apply in February too. Retail and institutions booked losses for this year in FB so they can't buy it back for 31 days or they'd take it in the ass twice. They'll come back into it when they can but without buyers FB will drift lower more than likely. JMO
As long as FB continues to make lower highs and lower lows, I'm shorting it. Would not be surprised to see it get to 200. Not touching it to the long side until it's back to the gap, barring any obvious days spurred by news, etc.
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ProgN
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In reply to GreasenUSA • 9:40p, 2/8/22
GreasenUSA said:
ProgN said:
aggiedaniel06 said:
That is the good idea. My first note might have not been clear
Surprise earnings beat = gap up and drift upwards.
Surprise miss = gap down and drift downwards.
Daniel is absolutely correct. FB will more than likely go lower, just as AMD will probably go higher. Too many people try to outthink the market and buy calls on FB and puts on AMD. Those are both losing trades most of the time. I'm not speaking for Daniel and he can opine if he thinks I'm wrong.

Will FB be higher in a year, probably. However don't try to guess with options. JMO
My best trades over the past few days have been shorts on FB. I do think it will have will have some nice bounce days here and there, and once it finally enters the gap and corresponds with a bull market, will be a good trend trader.

As far as PEAD, GOOGL is an interesting (outlying) case. It has sold off nearly 10% from its post earnings gap up and closed the gap today. I'm going to evaluate in the morning entering a long above today's high (2800) with a couple of targets along the way to 3000, and a stop at today's low (2740). Will give it more thought in the morning, as I generally hate trading GOOGL, but I like this risk/reward.
GOOG is the complete opposite of FB. They crushed estimates and declared a split. Buying it on pullbacks is a smarter play.
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GreasenUSA
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 9:42p, 2/8/22
AG
Speaking of FB, McInnis, do you still follow John Carter? I'm curious if anyone has heard his latest thoughts on it. It was his number 1 stock around 6 months ago to buy and hold for several years. As it was approaching 400, he was confident that it would see 4x gains from there in the coming years. I could certainly see this happening, but wonder if his confidence has waivered at all in light of recent events.
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SoTXAg09
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10:30p, 2/8/22
AG
TSLA looking like it's ready for a move up, IMO. EMAs are getting tight on the hourly and making higher lows.

Daily also looking a little bullish and MACD looks like it's about to cross over.

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lobwedgephil
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In reply to SoTXAg09 • 10:45p, 2/8/22
TSLA getting tight for sure, and a big move does seems likely soon. In a bear pennant technically, but could go either way, but it does look like something coming.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to lobwedgephil • 10:57p, 2/8/22
AG
lobwedgephil said:
TSLA getting tight for sure, and a big move does seems likely soon. In a bear pennant technically, but could go either way, but it does look like something coming.
if the mid Feb tech rip is about to happen, makes sense TSLA would rip soon!
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Brewmaster
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10:59p, 2/8/22
AG
this guy is great at picking them. Here's a board favorite, heck I may add more tomorrow on any pullbacks. In the thread he says he's long a bunch and is holding through earnings.

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sts7049
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5:32a, 2/9/22
AG
ES-F above 4540 this morning...good sign
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FJ43
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5:42a, 2/9/22
Mornun!

Green around the horn gents.
US green early
EU green
Asia green
VIX 20.82 - get below and stay below 20 and could be bullish.

OPEX next week so if me I'm looking to take profits this week on options trades in this trading market.

Trade wisely !

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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ProgN
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In reply to FJ43 • 5:46a, 2/9/22
Morning FJ
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gougler08
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5:49a, 2/9/22
AG
FJ future posts are turning the market around
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ProgN
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6:20a, 2/9/22
NVDA & TTD are readying for launch. Please make sure your tray tables are in their upright and locked positions and prepare for takeoff.
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Irish 2.0
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6:46a, 2/9/22
Disregard
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GTIAG09
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6:55a, 2/9/22
AG
30K's SPY 451c gonna be nice and green at open. Good play sir
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Engine10
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7:07a, 2/9/22
AG
PTON gonna be rocky today. This is gonna spook some folks
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 7:08a, 2/9/22
Irish 2.0 said:
CPI today
Tomorrow
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to Triple_Bagger • 7:09a, 2/9/22
Triple_Bagger said:
Irish 2.0 said:
CPI today
Tomorrow
Yeah...Was just coming to correct that. My bad. I'm on China time today

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SF2004
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7:22a, 2/9/22
AG
I smell a pump and dumb this morning.

No way they run up INTO CPI.
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BrokeAssAggie
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7:22a, 2/9/22
The one day I don't decide to hold SPY or Q calls overnight we are going to gap up.. F U market makers
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TxAgLaw03RW
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7:24a, 2/9/22
AG
CEO of WWR retires and is replaced by COO. I think there is an earnings update on 2/14 as well.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220209005398/en/Wes****er-Resources-Announces-Executive-Management-Changes/?feedref=JjAwJuNHiystnCoBq_hl-bV7DTIYheT0D-1vT4_bKFzt_EW40VMdK6eG-WLfRGUE1fJraLPL1g6AeUGJlCTYs7Oafol48Kkc8KJgZoTHgMu0w8LYSbRdYOj2VdwnuKwa
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Engine10
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In reply to TxAgLaw03RW • 7:29a, 2/9/22
AG
Actually kinda love that for them.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to GTIAG09 • 7:33a, 2/9/22
AG
GTIAG09 said:
30K's SPY 451c gonna be nice and green at open. Good play sir


I am going to sell at the open.
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to SF2004 • 7:34a, 2/9/22
SF2004 said:
I smell a pump and dumb this morning.

No way they run up INTO CPI.
Unless the big boys already know the CPI is lower than expected.

After last weeks jobs report, I don't trust anything. Won't be surprised if CPI comes out flat or negative.
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to SF2004 • 7:35a, 2/9/22
SF2004 said:
I smell a pump and dumb this morning.

No way they run up INTO CPI.
If it is dumped it won't be until tomorrow when CPI is actually reported. They'll want to run it up leading into that. Don't have any options exposure w/o having some SPY or QQQ put hedges
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Engine10 • 7:40a, 2/9/22
Engine10 said:
Actually kinda love that for them.
Agree. I remember Potter's bio from when they brought him on. I thought at that time his horsepower was greater and the role he took was lesser. Makes sense. He got a feel for the business and now it's time to take the reins. The person coming in to replace Potter will be key to delivering the project.
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cageybee77
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7:50a, 2/9/22
sts7049
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7:51a, 2/9/22
AG
i guess there is no such thing as a "quiet period" for WWR
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AgEng06
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 7:54a, 2/9/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
GTIAG09 said:
30K's SPY 451c gonna be nice and green at open. Good play sir


I am going to sell at the open.

Is there a way in TOS to set an option to sell at open, or does it have to be done manually?
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Barty Dont Hedge
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7:54a, 2/9/22
Lets go weed stocks!
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to AgEng06 • 8:05a, 2/9/22
AG
You can open a market sell order but i usually just open a limit order for a price i think is close to what it'll open at and if it doesn't fill right away I'll watch the action in the first 30 minutes to find an exit
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theNetSmith
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In reply to Phat32 • 8:09a, 2/9/22
AG
Phat32 said:
NCR AH
nice to see a positive report.. good for my ESPP
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Brewmaster
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In reply to SF2004 • 8:11a, 2/9/22
AG
SF2004 said:
I smell a pump and dumb this morning.

No way they run up INTO CPI.
I bet we do run into CPI. I might even bet we just have a small pullback with CPI data out. Everyone is expecting carnage, the market will just kill premium and tech seasonality (rip mid February) is upon us.
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