Fundstrat people calling for SPX 5000 within a couple weeks, others here saying down she goes.

I'm hoping for a gap up to sell my SPY 468C that expire Wed.

GS has earnings before the bell Tuesday, I think. That could be a major mover and the only thing to give me concern for my calls.

This market doesn't feel healthy to me, but it respects those trend lines and moving averages so perfectly. Once those lines break, it'll be obvious and painful.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Fundstrat people calling for SPX 5000 within a couple weeks, others here saying down she goes.

I'm hoping for a gap up to sell my SPY 468C that expire Wed.

GS has earnings before the bell Tuesday, I think. That could be a major mover and the only thing to give me concern for my calls.

This market doesn't feel healthy to me, but it respects those trend lines and moving averages so perfectly. Once those lines break, it'll be obvious and painful.

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We've had vol around the middle of the month the last several months. I bet we see opex drama next week.

FAT SEXY said:

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Holy ****

Any word on a death toll?

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I haven't checked but 4' waves hit the US West Coast today.

Cem Karsan was saying the Monday after OpEx is going to be exciting. This timeline may fit. OpEx hasn't been as brutal it seems these past couple months.

I think this one has potential to hammer retail. Lots of optimism Friday afternoon. A green Tuesday will get a lot of folks long.

I agree the following week could be a big move up if we're going that way. If not I think we'll see that correction we've been expecting or fearing for the past 15 months.

Not guaranteeing I'm right but I think the bell weathers of tech could to do very well this week. We'll just see what happens.

Is future training closed tomorrow too?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/16/walmart-is-quietly-preparing-to-enter-the-metaverse.html

Quote:

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Walmart appears to be venturing into the metaverse with plans to create its own cryptocurrency and collection of non-fungible tokens, or NFTs.

The big-box retailer filed several new trademarks late last month that indicate its intent to make and sell virtual goods, including electronics, home decorations, toys, sporting goods and personal care products. In a separate filing, the company said it would offer users a virtual currency, as well as NFTs.

According to the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, Walmart filed the applications on Dec. 30.

In total, seven separate applications have been submitted.

A spokesperson from Walmart didn't immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment

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Any ETF suggestions for an investor who wants to add "momentum" trading strategy exposure to their portfolio?

NTXAg10 said:

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Any ETF suggestions for an investor who wants to add "momentum" trading strategy exposure to their portfolio?

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I don't invest in funds but a few in here should be able to help. It might be slow in here today though with the markets closed tomorrow.

NTXAg10 said:

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Any ETF suggestions for an investor who wants to add "momentum" trading strategy exposure to their portfolio?

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look at Wes Grey's Alpha Architect. He has a momentum fund.

I think /CL or /MCL likely has a small pullback from here.

Unscientifically, I think SPX 4660 is the key level to start this week. A conservative upside target is 4690. A more aggressive target is 4710. If we start getting action and especially closes above this area, I think 4800+ is in the cards. The Nasdaq has to participate for that.

Below that, I think 4630 is a good conservative target with a retest of 4610 as a more aggressive, but not unreasonable target. I want to see if 4610 holds this time. Mancini posted about this holding but with smaller bounces. It is possible we blow through 4610 to try 4590 when we get down there.

I think we are going to trade 45XX sometime this month, if not this week. We may hit both targets this week. That would be great. Price will tell us.

If you're going to play 0-2 DTE, I recommend playing 1/4 to 1/2 of normal size with a 30-50% stop. If you get a big move they will pay.

Overall, I'm bearish leaning right now. Tech earnings can change what I think.

what are yall reading that shows us seeing a big drop?

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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hedge said:

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what are yall reading that shows us seeing a big drop?

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Let me ask this way. Why would we go up?

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money coming back in that was pulled out over the last week? We've had some pretty big moves going back to November but the moves have all been decently range bound. We were at a low last week.

She's one of those pro market players...

She knows there are a lot of eyes watching her trades right now. She probably had her son go with a quadruple sized short. She head fakes and then cleans up through her son.

Really makes ya think

hedge said:

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what are yall reading that shows us seeing a big drop?

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They aren't saying one way or another.. no one knows.

It is about high probability setups.

There is a GREATER chance to keep selling off right now and thus being cautious or bearish his a higher probability of producing winning trades.

No one knows for sure.

Shorted MNQ at 15611 based on 2 minute candles. Down to a runner. Wont play again tonight.

Profit guaranteed

McInnis 03 said:

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Shorted MNQ at 15611 based on 2 minute candles. Down to a runner. Wont play again tonight.

Profit guaranteed

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You are dirty

BrokeAssAggie said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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Shorted MNQ at 15611 based on 2 minute candles. Down to a runner. Wont play again tonight.

Profit guaranteed

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You are dirty

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Come get me daddy

hedge said:

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what are yall reading that shows us seeing a big drop?

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tech and growth have been getting hammered. I see no bottom in either yet honestly. They are still pricing in interest rate hikes IMO. Friday was a nice fake rip into close to sucker retail in. and maybe Tuesday morning will be a continuation of that (up).

I'm with Mancini (until we close above 4700). Speaking of tech, I think NFLX earnings are the 20th. That could be a pivotal point. Remember too seasonality, tech is always weak early in the year (and sometimes for 3 months).

I'm also just scalping levels on options at this point, not putting on new longs.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Like I've posted before, if you trade SPX and NDX options instead of SPY and QQQ, you have to watch for the bullsheet market maker games. Most of the traders in these are pros and they'll play games like move premiums down below intrinsic value to steal your options, especially with NDX. It's better to set alerts for levels and then get out when you lose support, but you must be disciplined to sell when it hits your stop level.

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Do you see these games being played in SPY and QQQ options out 1 week+ as well? or is this mostly a 0-2 dte thing? Sometimes when I scalp lately, I've been going out a week (and on these sometimes they take a few hours to really rip, so I avoid a little of the premium burn). Obviously, my favorites though are buying a reversal and it rips 2 to 3 points in 30 minutes to the next level, cash out, done and done!

Exciting stuff happening in bonds right now.

McInnis 03 said:

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Shorted MNQ at 15611 based on 2 minute candles. Down to a runner. Wont play again tonight.

Profit guaranteed

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Excellent trade. I would consider closing at 15500 if we get there. That's the bull/bear line for me.

Spy and QQQ are really liquid. The reason why you play index options is 60% of the proceeds are long term capital gains. But you need to watch your ass doing it.

I almost never short earnings but I bet Netflix poops the bed.

I may do a handful of OTM put debit spreads.

BREwmaster said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Like I've posted before, if you trade SPX and NDX options instead of SPY and QQQ, you have to watch for the bullsheet market maker games. Most of the traders in these are pros and they'll play games like move premiums down below intrinsic value to steal your options, especially with NDX. It's better to set alerts for levels and then get out when you lose support, but you must be disciplined to sell when it hits your stop level.

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Do you see these games being played in SPY and QQQ options out 1 week+ as well? or is this mostly a 0-2 dte thing? Sometimes when I scalp lately, I've been going out a week (and on these sometimes they take a few hours to really rip, so I avoid a little of the premium burn). Obviously, my favorites though are buying a reversal and it rips 2 to 3 points in 30 minutes to the next level, cash out, done and done!

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The "secret" is to buy ITM when there is no premium and ride with the price.

The other secret is not to trade against a 15-30 minute trend, especially if it's got the EMAs going with it. You need to know when to get out (or trail) and when to stop.