damn, that aged well!BREwmaster said:
SPY 10/15 415P has some volume to it. 38k, and the most volume for that expiration. I know that's way OTM, but interesting.
Stock Markets
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Last: 30 min ago by ProgN
H-town ag said:
Anyone adding to ELOX here ahead of the call next Tuesday?
I added at 1.52 on Monday or Tuesday, can't remember which day it was. I was wanting to get it in the 1.40s but haven't gotten opportunity.
I read this and thought it was interesting. No way that get's a play. Then I watch SPY drop out of it's triangle today. Wow.
CLOV getting a bounce today from CMS star rating upgrade.
$CLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOV!
I don't really have anything to add - just wanted to post since this thread is slooooow today.
I don't really have anything to add - just wanted to post since this thread is slooooow today.
Although I will say I have $8.5 CCs on some trading shares expiring today that I thought were safe - we'll see...
Anyone done research on TMC? I'm thinking of selling late Oct puts here.
The thread is slow, which is abnormal. You know what else is abnormal? The Aggies beating the Crimson Tide by 7 tomorrow. BTHO Nick Saban. Have a great weekend gentlemen
Outside of a flat week in August, ROKU finished with its first non-red week since mid-July.
Happy Friday gang, don't drive after heavily drinking during the A&M ass kicking Bama is about to deliver. Anyway, I was talking to a good friend of mine that owns a new car dealership and inventory is abysmal and not looking to be rectified anytime soon. Drive by any new dealership and you can see it as well. However, he said used cars are moving pretty damn good, with solid margins. I know this is anecdotal but it got me thinking. I've already mentioned I like CVNA at this price and primed to reverse. I suspect CVNA, Carmax ( KMX ) and others like them could be the big winners from the lack of inventory of new vehicles. Just something to consider and keep your eye on.
Weird market day today. Opex next week!
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Doing some yard leveling and it's hard work. These little "mommy popsicles" from Costco are really good on a hot day.
ProgN said:
Happy Friday gang, don't drive after heavily drinking during the A&M ass kicking Bama is about to deliver. Anyway, I was talking to a good friend of mine that owns a new car dealership and inventory is abysmal and not looking to be rectified anytime soon. Drive by any new dealership and you can see it as well. However, he said used cars are moving pretty damn good, with solid margins. I know this is anecdotal but it got me thinking. I've already mentioned I like CVNA at this price and primed to reverse. I suspect CVNA, Carmax ( KMX ) and others like them could be the big winners from the lack of inventory of new vehicles. Just something to consider and keep your eye on.
KMX reported earnings 9/30... i did not read the results to see why, but did see the ticker tank double digits last week.
I haven't looked into KMX yet, just considering this strategy and looking for any other opinions.
ProgN said:
I haven't looked into KMX yet, just considering this strategy and looking for any other opinions.
my trading opinions aren't very sophisticated and generally lack conviction
... but did drive by a carmax a couple weeks back, saw the bare lot, and had a similar thought as you - so put their next ER date on my calendar. CrazyRichAggie said:
Doing some yard leveling and it's hard work. These little "mommy popsicles" from Costco are really good on a hot day.
8%? Damn those could sneak up on you
I'm not a huge fan of option plays for earnings because it's usually all or nothing. However, people will probably settle for a newer model vehicle than waiting or pay X amount above MSRP that dealerships are doing on popular models. This could play out for a couple of qtrs.
Perma (Baylor) Bear here!
Here's more anecdotal evidence for you. My office manager's husband works at a big used car dealership in Weatherford, TX. He started this year and is gonna make something like close to $200K this year. He's new st his job snd killing it. I think he started in March or something. He said Hyundai Palisade is far and away the most coveted car on the lot.
He said like 30-40% of the people driving off the lot have bad credit and are either having to pay a large amount down or get a horrible deal. I have no idea how this compares to pre-COVID numbers at used car dealerships, though.
But my underlying theory of this market right now is that credit/banking is distressed, and people aren't talking about it. People aren't working, dollar worth less, inflation setting in heavy. I suspect defaults will be up….and significantly.
That's just a guess. So yes, used car plays may be good for now, but my personal conviction is to get through October before looking to go long on anything.
I'm curious to see what companies like ALLY and SYF do in the coming months. They are heavy on sub-prime loans (like 25-30% of their portfolio is sub-prime). Just to be clear, SYF executives sold $15M worth of shares the first week of September (coincidentally on the day the stock peaked). The recent past CEO sold herself $7M worth of shares.
Good luck!
Here's more anecdotal evidence for you. My office manager's husband works at a big used car dealership in Weatherford, TX. He started this year and is gonna make something like close to $200K this year. He's new st his job snd killing it. I think he started in March or something. He said Hyundai Palisade is far and away the most coveted car on the lot.
He said like 30-40% of the people driving off the lot have bad credit and are either having to pay a large amount down or get a horrible deal. I have no idea how this compares to pre-COVID numbers at used car dealerships, though.
But my underlying theory of this market right now is that credit/banking is distressed, and people aren't talking about it. People aren't working, dollar worth less, inflation setting in heavy. I suspect defaults will be up….and significantly.
That's just a guess. So yes, used car plays may be good for now, but my personal conviction is to get through October before looking to go long on anything.
I'm curious to see what companies like ALLY and SYF do in the coming months. They are heavy on sub-prime loans (like 25-30% of their portfolio is sub-prime). Just to be clear, SYF executives sold $15M worth of shares the first week of September (coincidentally on the day the stock peaked). The recent past CEO sold herself $7M worth of shares.
Good luck!
Thanks, and I agree that's why I'm buying CVNA stock, not options. The CEO is brilliant and I love that company the more I research it. A good friend pointed it out to me at 100 but I didn't buy it then, oops. I don't like any earnings plays this month. I suspect that even if a company crushes, then it will sell off do to so many headwinds in front of the economy. If a company misses, then they'll get pounded.
Anecdotal, but I have seen several $CVNA license plate brackets lately on the road. Consumers hate to deal with people and they'd rather just do everything online. It's probably got room to run.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Just be cautious about a good entry point. Looks like it's in a downtrend though there may be some support levels near current price.
Just a word of caution….if you're looking at this stock on fundamentals, it's got a lot of debt and fairly low amt of cash. If they raise interest rates (looking like this is inevitable?), these "growth" companies will suffer first and most. It's also heavily shorted (about 20%) and somehow the company is 113% owned by institutional money. I don't even know how this is possible?!?
Trust 30K over me though. Dude is a monster. I'm a tadpole.
Just a word of caution….if you're looking at this stock on fundamentals, it's got a lot of debt and fairly low amt of cash. If they raise interest rates (looking like this is inevitable?), these "growth" companies will suffer first and most. It's also heavily shorted (about 20%) and somehow the company is 113% owned by institutional money. I don't even know how this is possible?!?
Trust 30K over me though. Dude is a monster. I'm a tadpole.
Obviously wait for a bottom.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I'm not a long term holder, except for TTD. I'm in this for a trade. If you try to pick the bottom you'll miss an opportunity more often than not. I believe it prints a trade of $350 within the next 6 months.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Just be cautious about a good entry point. Looks like it's in a downtrend though there may be some support levels near current price.
Just a word of caution….if you're looking at this stock on fundamentals, it's got a lot of debt and fairly low amt of cash. If they raise interest rates (looking like this is inevitable?), these "growth" companies will suffer first and most. It's also heavily shorted (about 20%) and somehow the company is 113% owned by institutional money. I don't even know how this is possible?!?
Trust 30K over me though. Dude is a monster. I'm a tadpole.
My EW analysis on S&P has us getting a lower low. I've also got about 10-20 individual stocks that have all been pointing to lower lows. Everyone seems to think we are oversold though. Things are definitely pointing up. I would say the upside at this point is significantly higher than the downside. We might go lower, but I would be scaling out of downside bets and highly consider loading up on January bets. But do be careful. I think next March - June makes this past one look pedestrian. The market has a bigger correction waiting for it.
I think $BABA may have bottomed. Credit to Tic on that. I don't trust Chinese stocks but it has been savaged.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I'm not chomping at the bit to buy it Monday but it's on my radar. The MACD looks like garbage but it's way oversold and the RSI is at almost 20. Institutions really like this company and their management is solid. I've had very profitable trades buying stocks like this when their RSI is this low. It may not be the bottom but it's probably getting real close to it. We have a flash down day on the markets and this flashes down with it is when I'll enter.
I like BABA as a company but I'm adverse to Chinese stocks right now. If they move on Taiwan, which I believe they will, all stocks will get smashed but especially Chinese stocks.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I think $BABA may have bottomed. Credit to Tic on that. I don't trust Chinese stocks but it has been savaged.
I have shares of BIDU that I bought awhile back in the mid-$90s. If I had found this fine thread way back I would have went net free on those suckers when it was trading near $300. Instead I rode the 50% haircut…live and learn they say.
For the spread traders out there, I have a strategy question. Probably a super loaded question that can't easily be answered, but how do you choose the strikes? I opened a $435C/$440C credit spread on SPY expiring end of October yesterday when we were perpetually hanging around $441. But honestly it was just a blind stab at picking strikes intelligently. I chose $435 because it was more or less aligned with a gap fill and I chose $440 because the risk/reward was decent and I could open multiple contracts without too much penalty on buying power. Is there a better way to go about it?
Cookiemonster64 said:
For the spread traders out there, I have a strategy question. Probably a super loaded question that can't easily be answered, but how do you choose the strikes? I opened a $435C/$440C credit spread on SPY expiring end of October yesterday when we were perpetually hanging around $441. But honestly it was just a blind stab at picking strikes intelligently. I chose $435 because it was more or less aligned with a gap fill and I chose $440 because the risk/reward was decent and I could open multiple contracts without too much penalty on buying power. Is there a better way to go about it?
Pick strikes that you think can get hit and where there is a 1:1 risk to reward at a minimum.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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AG
You know what else is awesome when you're working outside on a hot day? Beer
Charismatic Megafauna
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ProgN said:
Thanks, and I agree that's why I'm buying CVNA stock, not options. The CEO is brilliant and I love that company the more I research it.
This is the father-son team that went from running a single used car dealership in Phoenix to being worth like 20B together after going public with this gimmicky car vending machine silliness. Feels like a fun story that some wise guy in nyc thought he could spin into a payday. That said, i have a buddy who has bought and traded in 2 cars through them and was happy with the experience both times so they must be doing something right.
I'm not very confident in my picks, so I don't play credit spreads regularly. I do however enjoy over analyzing option plays.
Using the smallest spread and getting more contracts changes the risk/reward structure. It also adjusts where max loss/win occurs. Basically they weren't confusing enough, so I'll give you some more things to consider. Hopefully, someone with experience will chime in. I'll use some examples based on your scenario:
SPY Oct 29 expiration used for all and current mid spread pricing from my platform just to make it easy:
1 contract x 435C/440C: 320 credit,180 max loss
5 contracts x 435C/436C: 340 credit, 160 max loss (68/32 per contract)
5 contracts x 439C/440C: 300 credit, 200 max loss (60/40 per contract)
If SPY < 435: 435/436 is the biggest win
If SPY > 440: 435/436 is the smallest loss
If 436 < SPY < 439: 439/440 is the only win.
If 435 < SPY < 436: 435/436 is at max loss. 435/440 is $60 profit (160 premium - 100 loss) and 439/440 is max profit.
Using the smallest spread and getting more contracts changes the risk/reward structure. It also adjusts where max loss/win occurs. Basically they weren't confusing enough, so I'll give you some more things to consider. Hopefully, someone with experience will chime in. I'll use some examples based on your scenario:
SPY Oct 29 expiration used for all and current mid spread pricing from my platform just to make it easy:
1 contract x 435C/440C: 320 credit,180 max loss
5 contracts x 435C/436C: 340 credit, 160 max loss (68/32 per contract)
5 contracts x 439C/440C: 300 credit, 200 max loss (60/40 per contract)
If SPY < 435: 435/436 is the biggest win
If SPY > 440: 435/436 is the smallest loss
If 436 < SPY < 439: 439/440 is the only win.
If 435 < SPY < 436: 435/436 is at max loss. 435/440 is $60 profit (160 premium - 100 loss) and 439/440 is max profit.
MITC
Israel company that is in the 3D production of printing edible red meat. Just under $9/share, one to watch. Could be a red herring or the next Amazon.
I purchased a few hundred shares.
Israel company that is in the 3D production of printing edible red meat. Just under $9/share, one to watch. Could be a red herring or the next Amazon.
I purchased a few hundred shares.
PA24 said:
MITC
Israel company that is in the 3D production of printing edible red meat. Just under $9/share, one to watch. Could be a red herring or the next Amazon.
I purchased a few hundred shares.
wth.. had to look it up - sounds bizarre to me. But so does buying a used car I've never smelled in person.
I'm in.
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