Prog and I have discussed this a lot deeper.. where he thinks all technicals get thrown out because of the short seller and the craziness over the last month.

Me being an Elliott Wave guy.. I see a VERY clear a-b-c correction from it's high. A high that was pumped up far beyond it's actual value based on EXPECTED future news. It couldn't possibly sustain that level while waiting for a Phase 3. And since EW is based on market sentiment and can be accurately traced using Fibonacci (the golden ratio), I see what's happening through an EW lense.

When you get a retracement off a big time high, it will normally take the shape of a-b-c with "a" being down, "b" correcting back up a portion of "a", and "c" being back down. This a-b-c usually subdivides into waves of 5-3-5. Sometimes 3-3-5.

When looking at SAVA since the ATH, we have a clear structure down (a), followed by a 3 wave structure up (b), and we are in the beginning stages of the 5th wave of a 5 wave structure to a lower low (c).

In a 5-wave structure, you can use Fibonacci extensions to plot your way. These will also subdivide into 5 wave structures. You start by placing your first click at the beginning of what you identify as your wave 1. Then you click at the top of wave 1, and then the bottom of wave 2. Your tool should fill out the extensions from there. You might need to modify the fib levels that show on your screen. But a typical 5 wave structure should look like this and hit these fibs..



Another typical structure you will see will hit these fibs..



For SAVA's c-wave, we have the following fib hits..

Wave i
Wave ii
subwave 1 of iii - 38.2%
subwave 2 of iii - 23.6%
subwave 3 of iii - 100%
subwave 4 of iii - between 61.8% and 76.4%
subwave 5 of iii (Wave iii) - 123.6%

With subwave 5 coming up one fib level short of it's target, we then lower all future waves by one fib level. So we expected Wave iv to hit the 76.4% level, but it should now hit 61.8%. Well guess what it hit today? That also happens to be a bounce directly off the 610 EMA on the 55min chart.

So where we would normally expect Wave v to hit 176.4%, we now expect it to hit 161.8%. You'll never guess where that level lines up.. yup.. just below the lower level of the gap that needs $23.50 to get filled.

Timing wise, I've labeled some trendlines that show a descending wedge and pointing to early to mid October before it hits the low. This is also about the same time I have the current market correction bottoming.. where all of the major indexes look to be possibly putting in lows at the same time and starting new booms. But timing is HARD. It could ram through and hit lower by Friday. Who knows..

Call it wizard crap. Call it luck. Whatever. But if you see this thing start making lower lows again, you know where to look for it to finish.

Of course, EW isn't a guarantee. It just uses fib math and probabilities to map out the most likely scenarios. There needs to be an alternate count. My alternate is that what I'm calling the Wave iii is actually the bottom. And today's spike formed the top of a new Wave 1. I would need to see a higher low and then a break above today's high. But I need more to form before I can say that's a viable count.

On Sava, all I know is I've sold 60 total contracts of puts successfully over the last 3 weeks, and I plan to keep doing it until it won't work.

Mornun!

U.S. mostly green, EU & Asia mixed.



Let's see if we have a rally into the close of the week or we fade any of this slight green here.

Watch VIX....get back to and stay below 20 and we could be in business. Stays up and swings are in order IMO.

Rise and shine traders!




Trade wisely!

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I mean what could possibly go wrong with this picture? This curve is so steep, we're about to go backwards in time.

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Come on 30K! You know I mean no disrespect and this is in a fun/banter/respectful way, but any super long term chart not in log scale is absolute rubbish chart crime. What timeframe you talking about? You're gonna scare off all the newbs

For long term perspective, let me counter argue with the fact that historically, we have gone in approximately 30 year cycles through worries, massive inflation, wars, failing banks, scandals, terrorist attacks, etc... every generation thinks they're in the worst of times and 'it won't end well' etc.

The 30 year cycles have been about 2 decades of bull market (coinciding w/ the 18 year real estate market phenomenon) followed by about a decade of steep recessions essentially making macro Darvas boxes. 1950s-60s mega bull after regaining 1929 highs, 1970s terrible, 80s-90s mega bull after all the inflation and other global political craziness, 2000s terrible after dot com bust, 9/11, GFC... and the March 2000 high didn't get taken out for good until 2013... long term speaking we are mid channel/mid cycle and just kinking the chart into that final multi year blow off top leg. We'll have a few 20% drops along the way for sure...maybe I'm just hoping?!?

"Rubbish"

*US Jobless Claims +16K To 351K In Sep-18 Wk; Survey 320K

*US Sep-11 Week Continuing Claims +131K to 2,845,000

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 23, 2021

"One good jobs number away from starting taper" … ain't seen it yet

ProgN said:

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"Rubbish"

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That was for you bro!

Quote:

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Roku Raised to Buy From Neutral by Guggenheim
7:46 am ET September 23, 2021 (Dow Jones) Print

Ratings actions from Benzinga: https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ROKU/ratings


2021-09-23 11:46:00 GMT DJ Roku Price Target Announced at $395.00/Share by Guggenheim

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I just think the market is extended. *Whilst* brrr happens, well, you know what will occur.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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I just think the market is extended. *Whilst* brrr happens, well, you know what will occur.

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This is an important thing to grasp. Money printing creates inflation which is good for the market in nominal terms meaning as long as we have inflation the meme "stonks only go up" has some truth to it. Printed money has to go somewhere and stocks are the only place it can generate return. So while everything we buy is getting more expensive the only hope we all have of keeping up is putting more and more into the market in the hope of keeping up. Endless loop that will end one day but most likely not today. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid.