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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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China...an emerging market...wtf? They're the #2 economy in the world. Just lost style points.
Triple_Bagger
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Double_Bagger said:

Powell saying all the right things. I'm buying 440 SPY calls for Friday at 1.50.
Up 30%. You're doing great Powell

Up 50%. Trailing stops set.
mazag08
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AG
I bought the SPY dip. We have a gap fill at $441. Whether it gets there today, overnight, or tomorrow.. i don't know. But I believe it will. And these SPY calls are going to turn into whiskey bottles.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Is Bitcoin crashing now?
McInnis 03
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AG
The machines are having a ball.

ES came all the way back to ORH (overnight high also) again and mooned from there LoL.

***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
Engine10
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AG
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Is Bitcoin crashing now?

Not seeing anything…up 3% today
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Based on Powell's comments regarding a digital Fed currency, I dont think I'd be long other crypto's, JMO.
Brewmaster
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AG
mazag08 said:

I bought the SPY dip. We have a gap fill at $441. Whether it gets there today, overnight, or tomorrow.. i don't know. But I believe it will. And these SPY calls are going to turn into whiskey bottles.
what kind?
mazag08
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AG
BREwmaster said:

mazag08 said:

I bought the SPY dip. We have a gap fill at $441. Whether it gets there today, overnight, or tomorrow.. i don't know. But I believe it will. And these SPY calls are going to turn into whiskey bottles.
what kind?
If this gap gets filled I'll let you pick. Let's say $50-$100
BlueTaze
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:


I'm bullish until the end of the year.


I think there could be a big bump in the road after debt ceiling is raised. Still a reasonable possibility a credit agency downgrades US debt from AAA to AA+. It happened in 2011 with a better fiscal situation than today....so unless S&P was just trying to save face after the 2008 crisis, we may see another downgrade.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I didn't trade today for a reason.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
ProgN
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Put CZR on breakout watchlist.
ibdm98
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AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:

I didn't trade today for a reason.

My trading day included buying back one covered call … and that may still go down as a bad decision.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Your friend 30K's levels weren't horrible for today. Nearly impossible to execute with the machines.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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BlueTaze said:

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:


I'm bullish until the end of the year.


I think there could be a big bump in the road after debt ceiling is raised. Still a reasonable possibility a credit agency downgrades US debt from AAA to AA+. It happened in 2011 with a better fiscal situation than today....so unless S&P was just trying to save face after the 2008 crisis, we may see another downgrade.
Agree with you in a world of integrity. Unfortunately, my thinking is telling me otherwise. Just look at the Fed propping up the market in mortgages and buying debt they are creating. Banks parking money they don't need at the Feb Repo and receiving 1% interest. And, as Chair Jay said, "No decisions have been made" regarding rates, tapering or curbing inflation. These items alone should send the market backward.

The debt ceiling will be raised because no one in Congress is talking/whispering/shouting anything about spending cuts. If the U.S. is downgraded, I think Chair Jay and Sec Janet will go, "Muh,..." for a brief pause and the conga line dance will continue.

Conventional wisdom hasn't surfaced in years and I'm not sure what it's going to take to bring it out from the shadows.

I'm bullish until the end of the year.
BaylorSpineGuy
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I saw the meeting differently (caution, I'm bearish and so are my current trades).

I see it as the band playing while the Titanic is going down. Don't worry, though, Feds already have their getaway boat set aside (he sorta apologized for that but didn't go so far as to offer the boat to anyone else). Waiting with baited breath for the Fed ethics committee's eventual conclusion. Bet we never even learn who is on the committee.

This meeting was about creating a docile environment and to placate markets a little bit longer. IMO, the script is already written. My office took me to lunch today. We went to a restaurant that was historically massively crowded at lunch. There's a Now Hiring sign outside and no patrons inside the walls. 2 waiters, 4 tables, 1 bar tender. Right next to an enormously busy Highway. Why are they hiring? Got word of some financial news of my wife's friend today they just bought a super expensive car she admitted they couldn't afford. I feel unsettled.

It felt ominous today. Maybe I'm having the wrong emotion. But honestly…..no Fed banker is gonna yell fire. They're already gone while the building is in flames.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I am short term bullish, medium term bearish. The market is priced to perfection.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I mean what could possibly go wrong with this picture? This curve is so steep, we're about to go backwards in time.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
cageybee77
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AG
not that anyone would be interested, but I'm neither - I will play the spikes and play the bounces. my etf's are what they are and I'm not touching them.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

I mean what could possibly go wrong with this picture? This curve is so steep, we're about to go backwards in time.



That's what happens when the Fed prints 88 billion per hour.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
my computer isn't cooperating for me to post stuff.

Take a look at master card ($MA). It's in a downtrend. Draw a line from the $395 peak to today's peak and you will notice that we are on the verge of a down trend break. This is expensive, but if you can, recommend selling short puts here, about a month out, a little bit OTM. November monthly 340P is going for $12.45. I wouldn't mind owning more MA at 327.50.

I don't love CDS pricing on this. PCS 350/340 is not bad. Straight shares also OK way to play as is ITM calls. You have to go pretty deep ITM to avoid premium though: 320s.





You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
It have been wrong before, but I think we're within 10% of the end stage of this.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
A defensive play some of you may not have thought of is to sell deep ITM calls against your positions, a couple months out. You buy back the calls on a dip.

There is also a collar: own shares, sell covered call, but put with call premium.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I got $MA to work.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
BlueTaze
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Fair points. Id say a downgrade from AAA to AA+ , may cause a 15% sell off that lasts a couple weeks....with Janet and Powell both just pointing out its all relative to other countries, to get things back on track.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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BlueTaze said:

Fair points. Id say a downgrade from AAA to AA+ , may cause a 15% sell off that lasts a couple weeks....with Janet and Powell both just pointing out its all relative to other countries, to get things back on track.

At 15%, that would put the S&P just under 3800 (3735) based on today's close. And, 3800 to 4200 is range where the Big Banks put the S&P for the end of the year in a June 2021 survey.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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$SAVA is a popular stock here, so does anybody care to weigh in today? This guy from investorplace - is that a real site or paid for shills? - says that it was based on good news that people then didn't like https://investorplace.com/2021/09/sava-stock-what-is-going-on-with-red-hot-cassava-sciences-today/
That doesn't seem reasonable to me. In fact he reports that the selloff happened in the afternoon, when the selling was largely done by 10:00am CST.

At 7:40am we had one 10-minute period where the price shot up on 476,000 share volume. After that we had constant and controlled red candles on a 15-minute chart. Did someone want to create a buying frenzy to sell into as a way to exit? Was this real buying that was met with a combination of profit taking and shorts trying to hold on?
BaylorSpineGuy
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I made money buying puts on them a week or so back when it fell from 350 to 340 in a day.

Realistically, almost every single credit card looks exactly the same tho! All down 10-15% in last 6 weeks.
lobwedgephil
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You obviously know what you are doing, but how did you let yourself get down 29 points on futures. I know just the micros, so small money, and it worked out. But that will get you killed normally. Futures is very important to define your risk and have firm stops. You need to treat the micros like the real thing to know if you can do it. You are good though, I think you will do very well on futures.
GreasenUSA
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AG
Tomas Hermensa said:

$SAVA is a popular stock here, so does anybody care to weigh in today? This guy from investorplace - is that a real site or paid for shills? - says that it was based on good news that people then didn't like https://investorplace.com/2021/09/sava-stock-what-is-going-on-with-red-hot-cassava-sciences-today/
That doesn't seem reasonable to me. In fact he reports that the selloff happened in the afternoon, when the selling was largely done by 10:00am CST.

At 7:40am we had one 10-minute period where the price shot up on 476,000 share volume. After that we had constant and controlled red candles on a 15-minute chart. Did someone want to create a buying frenzy to sell into as a way to exit? Was this real buying that was met with a combination of profit taking and shorts trying to hold on?
I was watching the ask on L2 for much of the day. The selling that kept popping up mostly until the last hour was relentless. It seemed an awful lot like when I've seen companies sell shares on the open market. They also made a point to not lose the higher lows it has been printing over the last week, which would have triggered a larger sell off, imo. Let's see if it can hold a higher low again tomorrow.
Fightin_Aggie
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AG
GreasenUSA said:

Tomas Hermensa said:

$SAVA is a popular stock here, so does anybody care to weigh in today? This guy from investorplace - is that a real site or paid for shills? - says that it was based on good news that people then didn't like https://investorplace.com/2021/09/sava-stock-what-is-going-on-with-red-hot-cassava-sciences-today/
That doesn't seem reasonable to me. In fact he reports that the selloff happened in the afternoon, when the selling was largely done by 10:00am CST.

At 7:40am we had one 10-minute period where the price shot up on 476,000 share volume. After that we had constant and controlled red candles on a 15-minute chart. Did someone want to create a buying frenzy to sell into as a way to exit? Was this real buying that was met with a combination of profit taking and shorts trying to hold on?
I was watching the ask on L2 for much of the day. The selling that kept popping up mostly until the last hour was relentless. It seemed an awful lot like when I've seen companies sell shares on the open market. They also made a point to not lose the higher lows it has been printing over the last week, which would have triggered a larger sell off, imo. Let's see if it can hold a higher low again tomorrow.
My stock monitoring site shows they have diluted shares 60% in the past year. This sounds like a good hypothesis to me
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McInnis 03
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AG
lobwedgephil said:

You obviously know what you are doing


Your premise was wrong.

This is why I'm in micros, single contract, maybe 2. My decision making is terrible and why things like this happen.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
Bird Poo
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AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:

I made money buying puts on them a week or so back when it fell from 350 to 340 in a day.

Realistically, almost every single credit card looks exactly the same tho! All down 10-15% in last 6 weeks.
When everything rises in price, people don't use their CC as much.
jimmo
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$SAVA
News reported today..
assuming by the stock reaction.. this wasn't the study/ trial folks have been anxiously waiting for?

  • "...study showed ADAS-Cog11 scores improved an average of 3.2 points from baseline in the first 50 study subjects who completed 12 months of treatment."

  • Bob Knights Paper Hands
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    jimmo said:

    $SAVA
    News reported today..
    assuming by the stock reaction.. this wasn't the study/ trial folks have been anxiously waiting for?

  • "...study showed ADAS-Cog11 scores improved an average of 3.2 points from baseline in the first 50 study subjects who completed 12 months of treatment."



  • Is 3.2 points significant? If so then either many still have concerns, the company is selling more shares into the good news, or MMs want to accumulate more and are selling or shorting it around the news to dampen the effect. They would then buy back in to mass accumulate slowly before letting it rip.
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