I'm 60/40 bearish on the indicators inclusive of the ones you note. Strange times. I'm not predicting anything though. Could see big moves either way.
Stock Markets
24,813,701 Views |
233493 Replies |
Last: 16 hrs ago by Quacked
59 South said:
I'm 60/40 bearish on the indicators inclusive of the ones you note. Strange times. I'm not predicting anything though. Could see big moves either way.
This may seem surprising to some here. I am net bullish but I believe an 8-10% correction is needed first. Minimum 5%
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Many stocks had a 5-10% correction last week. Some dropped more than 20% (ELOX).$30,000 Millionaire said:59 South said:
I'm 60/40 bearish on the indicators inclusive of the ones you note. Strange times. I'm not predicting anything though. Could see big moves either way.
This may seem surprising to some here. I am net bullish but I believe an 8-10% correction is needed first. Minimum 5%
I think Monday will be telling. If we start the week flat or green, I'll be bullish. If sell off continues, we might be in a bigger correction.
Double_Bagger said:Many stocks had a 5-10% correction last week. Some dropped more than 20% (ELOX).$30,000 Millionaire said:59 South said:
I'm 60/40 bearish on the indicators inclusive of the ones you note. Strange times. I'm not predicting anything though. Could see big moves either way.
This may seem surprising to some here. I am net bullish but I believe an 8-10% correction is needed first. Minimum 5%
I think Monday will be telling. If we start the week flat or green, I'll be bullish. If sell off continues, we might be in a bigger correction.
Indexes didn't correct. Watch for G/R.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I realize the SPX doesn't show it but I think XLV is the only sector that hasn't seen >5% pull back since May. Can we be healthy with these strategic corrections or is that just a shell game?
Anyone who's bearish right now better keep a short time stamp. We're in a bull market and likely haven't even hit the 4th wave yet. We're going over 5,000 and maybe close to 6,000 in the next year or two.
Anyone looking at calls on pltr? Inside bar on the daily at -3ATR.
OutlawAG04 said:
Anyone looking at calls on pltr? Inside bar on the daily at -3ATR.
Take my word for what it's worth, as I'm fairly new to this. I'd maybe go with Aug 20th $24 calls. Or maybe a 23/25/27 8/20 butterfly to limit risk with chance of good money. I dont see pltr getting above $26. Also not sure if this stock still falls if small caps continue to fall
NVDA went from +3 ATR to -2 min n a week.
GTIAG09 said:OutlawAG04 said:
Anyone looking at calls on pltr? Inside bar on the daily at -3ATR.
Take my word for what it's worth, as I'm fairly new to this. I'd maybe go with Aug 20th $24 calls. Or maybe a 23/25/27 8/20 butterfly to limit risk with chance of good money. I dont see pltr getting above $26. Also not sure if this stock still falls if small caps continue to fall
Waiting to see how Monday opens. I'm trying to scalp right now on most entries
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,961
How long do you want to ignore this user?
59 South said:
Fading the sentiment of this board has usually worked in the past. Objectively, I've been leaning a little bearish or sideways lately expecting typical seasonality of bearish mid/late August into October but you guys and your insistent bearishness is confusing my algo. Either y'all are getting better, or shorts are about to get absolutely destroyed annihilated crushed etc. The bearishness of fintwit is stellar too. Almost so much that if my cajones were bigger I'd go full leveraged long because I know there is no way "they" are gonna let fintwit be right. I'm just gonna stay neutral for the time being.
Cheers mates, enjoy the weekend and as Reddog says 'feed the brain'
I agree with this sentiment. So many of the indicators seem to point to at least a temporary 10% dip. However it seems so many people expect this and if nothing is constant it's the market never does what everybody expects it to do.
I think people are too bearish. Won't go down now.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I think people are too bearish. Won't go down now.
This is where EW comes in handy.
Bull market wave 1: People see an opportunity and start buying. Volume starts going up.
Bull market wave 2: Volume starts flattening or declining as opportunistic powder dries up and people get skeptical about the entry price. Price goes back down. Some take profits. Some start to jump in as valuation becomes reasonable again. Market price never goes below Wave 1 low.
Bull market wave 3: Volume starts to pick back up again. At this point people realize they aren't alone. Stock starts to take off and more and more people learn about it and feel confirmed in their buying. This can not be the shortest wave and usually tops out around the 1.618 retracement from waves 1 & 2. It's usually the most powerful wave with the biggest spike.
Bull market wave 4: Price starts to feel a little heavy again and like wave 2, people take some profits, some get scared, but overall buying volume dries up. Can retrace in multiple ways, can be sharp and deep or long slow and shallow. Often times you will see triangles form during a wave 4.
Bull market wave 5: Everyone sees the opportunity and volume floods back in. Can take the shape of the wave 1, can be short and swift, but eventually, the price becomes extremely overvalued as we're nearing the 2.618 extension of waves 1 & 2. Once completed, a sharp drop is usually seen until it bottoms and we begin the next sequence.
We're in the middle of an SPX long term wave 3. Have been since the bottom of the pandemic sell off. This thing will top off sometime soonish (and might already have). We still aren't clear whether we've begun a wave 4 or we're in a micro wave down within wave V of 3. This week should tell us.
Y'all can't be trusted. Leave for a few days and I thought y'all might buy things up until I got back at least.
SPY
I think 430 is a big number but 428.15 even bigger number.
Suspect bears give it a go there which is bottom of box I posted last week sometime.
Lose 428 IMO and a bunch of spots below it could go. 50EMA/SMA convergence likely should that happen which is about -2 ATR.
Just me spit balling.
Technicals are crazy at the moment. There's a case for the big boys like AMZN and AAPL to double by next summer. There's also a case for them to half. So who knows. I'm very short term bearish but medium and longer term bullish. SPX 5000 seems imminent. Qs 400 by end of year.
QQQ
355 test likely IMO. After that 350/349ish.
Below that and well....could be painful.
Just getting back and digging into TA feels like we have more downward pressure but not some major sell off. Near term bearish on my end as well. Stay within the boxes and could just be consolidation and cooling off.59 South said:
Technicals are crazy at the moment. There's a case for the big boys like AMZN and AAPL to double by next summer. There's also a case for them to half. So who knows. I'm very short term bearish but medium and longer term bullish. SPX 5000 seems imminent. Qs 400 by end of year.
Fall outside of those IMO and we have decently lower levels to visit.
Pretty much. welcome back, hope you had a good trip. Great weekend here with fantastic weather.
ELOX
Probably loading up more Monday.
RR is good here IMO. Get's below 1.25 maybe I cut the new shares of 10% loss.
So 355 puts for Friday expiration tomorrow?FJ43 said:
QQQ
355 test likely IMO. After that 350/349ish.
Below that and well....could be painful.
Think it will depend on the open. Futures may give us the key.SF2004 said:So 355 puts for Friday expiration tomorrow?FJ43 said:
QQQ
355 test likely IMO. After that 350/349ish.
Below that and well....could be painful.
AT least how I will play it anyway is I will mark premarket highs/lows, Then watch the first 5, 15, 30 minutes. If it starts downward from the get go the premiums will get juiced early. For me I wait for a bounce, then rejection then I enter ATM puts for a scalp.
My plan for the week as of now.
Focus 1a & 1b will be SPY and Q scalps. After that pretty selective to few stock options scalps (up or down).
I think this could be a glorious week for SPY/Qs scalping.
No worries bruh, we blamed the ****ty market on you while you were gone.FJ43 said:
Y'all can't be trusted. Leave for a few days and I thought y'all might buy things up until I got back at least.
DM me when you come stateside. I'm not too far from Austin and I'll meet you for a couple pints.
FJ43
Joined:
Jul 3, 2019
Posts:
12,249
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Futures puking too much. Green Day tomorrow.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Look at this one. We missed this.
STFC. Insurance company.
Was trading in a long term channel. Heres the 10 year look.
Then it broke down and started a sideways channel. Here's the 3-year look of the break down and you can see it level off and start moving sideways.
Then it was announced in the last couple of days that Liberty Mutual will be buying them for $52 per share.
Imagine having the $50 call prior to the announcement.
STFC. Insurance company.
Was trading in a long term channel. Heres the 10 year look.
Then it broke down and started a sideways channel. Here's the 3-year look of the break down and you can see it level off and start moving sideways.
Then it was announced in the last couple of days that Liberty Mutual will be buying them for $52 per share.
Imagine having the $50 call prior to the announcement.
Here's one to put on a watchlist.
AOUT. American Outdoor Brands.
IPO in August of 2020. Some immediate up and down action and then settled in between the $12 and $14 range. From the low of $12.25, I can start to chart an Elliot Wave analysis. It's extremely difficult to chart something with a lack of history. So this could be 100% wrong.
Looking at the 1-year (1 day) chart, there's a chance we just ended a long term Wave 1 impulse. Wave 1 is hard to identify because you usually don't have any more than a general upward trend line. Volume should be rising as well, so this one might not fit other than a handful of massive volume spikes. You also don't usually have confirmation until a clear Wave 2 has formed.
Well we got what might be the start of Wave 2 last week. Earnings came out and weren't awful, but projections for future price and earnings started to get a little bearish. Most think this company will make about the same money in 2022 as they did in 2021 while having a lower EPS. This kind of sentiment is par for the course in a Wave 2. Volume starts to fall and general sentiment tends to be more negative or unsure. Wave 2 can retrace almost all of Wave 1, but it can't go lower. It also typically bottoms around the 61% retracement level. Notice on this one the sharp drop to almost exactly the 38% level (off by about 35 cents). It could stop here and reverse, or it could trace farther down.
If this is a Wave 2, then we really don't know what happens next. Wave 2 is a corrective wave that subdivides into 3 smaller waves, a (opposite direction of the larger impulse trend), b (correcting wave a and in the same direction as the larger impulse trend), and c (finding a new low to finish the Wave 1 correction). These a, b, and c waves also subdivide. But since the structure isn't confirmed yet I'm not going to speculate on anything deeper than the first level of sub waves.
What's do we do mazag?
Nothing.. yet.. unless you feel like gambling.
Let's keep an eye on this and see if it finds new lows with declining volume. If so, it almost becomes a certainty we are in Wave 2. Look for it to cross below the 38% retracement of Wave 1. If it does, then we can start to chart out subwaves of Wave 2 to see where it might be going. If it reverses here and finds a new high, then we are either in a longer Wave 1 or have started Wave 3 (the longest and most impulsive wave with increased volume). We will know if the volume picks up and is stronger than in what we think is the Wave 1. If it finds new highs but volume isn't rising significantly, then we are likely in a longer term Wave 1.
This could be a fun one. But isn't likely to be actionable for a couple more weeks at least. I'll post updates if anyone wants to watch with me. And sorry if there is anyone here that doesn't care for the Elliot Wave analysis. As I continue to get better and better at it, I think it could be valuable to go along with all of the other great charting and technical analysis we have. I want to help everyone make money.
American Outdoor Brands, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next | Nasdaq
AOUT. American Outdoor Brands.
IPO in August of 2020. Some immediate up and down action and then settled in between the $12 and $14 range. From the low of $12.25, I can start to chart an Elliot Wave analysis. It's extremely difficult to chart something with a lack of history. So this could be 100% wrong.
Looking at the 1-year (1 day) chart, there's a chance we just ended a long term Wave 1 impulse. Wave 1 is hard to identify because you usually don't have any more than a general upward trend line. Volume should be rising as well, so this one might not fit other than a handful of massive volume spikes. You also don't usually have confirmation until a clear Wave 2 has formed.
Well we got what might be the start of Wave 2 last week. Earnings came out and weren't awful, but projections for future price and earnings started to get a little bearish. Most think this company will make about the same money in 2022 as they did in 2021 while having a lower EPS. This kind of sentiment is par for the course in a Wave 2. Volume starts to fall and general sentiment tends to be more negative or unsure. Wave 2 can retrace almost all of Wave 1, but it can't go lower. It also typically bottoms around the 61% retracement level. Notice on this one the sharp drop to almost exactly the 38% level (off by about 35 cents). It could stop here and reverse, or it could trace farther down.
If this is a Wave 2, then we really don't know what happens next. Wave 2 is a corrective wave that subdivides into 3 smaller waves, a (opposite direction of the larger impulse trend), b (correcting wave a and in the same direction as the larger impulse trend), and c (finding a new low to finish the Wave 1 correction). These a, b, and c waves also subdivide. But since the structure isn't confirmed yet I'm not going to speculate on anything deeper than the first level of sub waves.
What's do we do mazag?
Nothing.. yet.. unless you feel like gambling.
Let's keep an eye on this and see if it finds new lows with declining volume. If so, it almost becomes a certainty we are in Wave 2. Look for it to cross below the 38% retracement of Wave 1. If it does, then we can start to chart out subwaves of Wave 2 to see where it might be going. If it reverses here and finds a new high, then we are either in a longer Wave 1 or have started Wave 3 (the longest and most impulsive wave with increased volume). We will know if the volume picks up and is stronger than in what we think is the Wave 1. If it finds new highs but volume isn't rising significantly, then we are likely in a longer term Wave 1.
This could be a fun one. But isn't likely to be actionable for a couple more weeks at least. I'll post updates if anyone wants to watch with me. And sorry if there is anyone here that doesn't care for the Elliot Wave analysis. As I continue to get better and better at it, I think it could be valuable to go along with all of the other great charting and technical analysis we have. I want to help everyone make money.
American Outdoor Brands, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next | Nasdaq
Should be sporty this week.
Futures snap shot.
Note VIX futures over 21
Don't love it. Makes prospect of this being the low a higher probability than I would like.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Nice pics of the family FJ
Good to see ya back home safe
Good to see ya back home safe
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Don't love it. Makes prospect of this being the low a higher probability than I would like.
Personally I'd still like to see a 428 support or failure.
jimmo said:
Nice pics of the family FJ
Good to see ya back home safe
Thanks! Glad to be back in the trenches with y'all. Great family time and much needed to recharge.
We will know manana regardless.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Featured Stories
See All
No. 15 A&M's hot start more than enough to run away from NMSU, 38-3
by Olin Buchanan
19:00
11h ago
4.3k
Post Game Review: No. 15 Texas A&M 38, New Mexico State 3
by Kay Naegeli
19:50
1d ago
6.1k
Donors can now earn priority points by giving to Texas Aggies United
by Texas Aggies United