I thought i could get assigned on spy calls until 3:15 day of expiration?

Any option can be assigned up until 5pm

mazag08 said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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mazag08 said:

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agdaddy04 said:

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PETZ just can't keep a run up right now - too low of volume?

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The spikes show that it wants to. Every time it tries it validates the structure. On the 6 month chart we've got a shallow cup that started in Feb and completed in June. We're in the handle formation now.

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Do we know anything about this company besides it' sells pet food?

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OA likes it?

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Does he?

BREwmaster said:

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lots of bullish MSFT action today (calls)... Theta Warrior has been on it. earnings is 7/28.

I went with verticals 7/30 expiration: 295c/297.50c

risk 33, max is 217

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What do you think of the MSFT 7/30 295/300/305 Butterfly? Max loss roughly $24, max gain roughly $476 per contract

Interesting where SPY went to today.

Basically at ATR mean, approx 21EMA, upper long term trend line.

Let's see what happens around 354.50 to 354. Approx 21EMA and ATR mean.

QQQ

J.P. 03 said:

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mazag08 said:

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Doubt it. But my 432 puts that I got stopped on are up $1.00. I let myself get stopped out at the low put price of the day.

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Sorry that happened. I've been there several times myself and feel your pain.

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Was happening to me a lot so I started using price alerts instead of stops. This works as long as you're near your computer. If you won't be able to react quickly, stick with stops.

ibdm98 said:

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$MU - talked about this one a few weeks back. It had a failed breakout attempt beginning of the month but pulled back into channel. Looking towards the beginning of August for the fireworks on this one...

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Thank you for posting this chart. It saved me a few hundred bucks. I bought MU after the earnings sell off but decided to get out after looking at this chart the last time you posted it. Looking to buy in August now.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Bearish close. Probably gets bought and back to fresh ATH + 100 points by Monday open.

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I disagree, what's the catalyst for it? Not saying you're wrong, just curious.

I thought that, but I've had a crappy day so I was curious. How's your trip going?

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Any option can be assigned up until 5pm

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Ah gotcha, i guess my concern was td automatically exercising itm options. Need to call them and ask if that's valid until 3, 3:15, or 5

I think the catalyst was Costanza theory. LOL.

That's badass brother.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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FJ43 said:

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Prognightmare said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Bearish close. Probably gets bought and back to fresh ATH + 100 points by Monday open.

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I disagree, what's the catalyst for it? Not saying you're wrong, just curious.

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Sarcasm mixed in most likely.

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Sarcasm, fatalism, and a sincere hope this mofo pukes to 3900.

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I think you're more right than it hitting ATH. I'm not calling 3900, but that gap at 4025 is definitely in play.

This is interesting. Retail never times ANYTHING right......I think mm's railroad them on this

For the first time since Feb '20 small lot traders have sold more puts to open than bought calls to open

This could be the defining moment for retail. They may have perfectly timed stock weakness or they'll be run over

Regardless, this implies high vol of vol for next week pic.twitter.com/f9BcJHtgLc

— SpotGamma (@spotgamma) July 17, 2021

Does he mean bought more puts instead of sold puts? I'm confused, if small lot traders are selling puts wouldn't that mean they sense near-term market strength instead of sending weakness?


Or is he saying retail sold puts on the weakness expecting a return to ATH next week and might get crushed if those puts backfire? Because if massive retail put selling backfires and accounts get blown up that's how you get a quick 10% pullback and it'll hit our beloved small caps the hardest.

Tomas Hermensa said:

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Does he mean bought more puts instead of sold puts? I'm confused, if small lot traders are selling puts wouldn't that mean they sense near-term market strength instead of sending weakness?


Or is he saying retail sold puts on the weakness expecting a return to ATH next week and might get crushed if those puts backfire? Because if massive retail put selling backfires and accounts get blown up that's how you get a quick 10% pullback and it'll hit our beloved small caps the hardest.

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Sold puts thinking this is the end of weakness.

Market keeps going down.....traders lose on the sale....

Kind of confusing but from the text on the left of the graph I would think it is selling puts vs SELLING calls rather than the tweeter text of buying calls. Not sure.

Ya that tweet is backwards somewhere.

Buying calls = bullish with low risk high reward
Selling puts = bullish with high risk low reward.

I guess he could be making the point that with this much retail in put positions, if the market goes down they will be out a significant amount of cash for the first time whereas previously they were only risking a small amount.

Yeah thanks I got it eventually. The first post was made before my second cup of coffee.

I'm ready to get the market puke over with.

If we assume a puke happens, whether now or a month or three months, where does the next rotation go to? Will it be buying small caps who get hit the hardest? Rotation into a particular industry or sector? Buying large caps since retail gets weary of high beta stocks? Electrification? Materials? Buying alcohol companies since everyone's poor and drinking their blues away? Any thoughts?

Volume Indicator (upside as % of total, 30 dma)

There is your deterioration in one chart. pic.twitter.com/yUISodb6zh

— Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) July 17, 2021

Just for a quick glance.

SPX pic.twitter.com/KRe2cxVyRb

— Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) July 17, 2021

Naz pic.twitter.com/k2pOeHFi8K

— Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) July 17, 2021

IWM. The now-famous line. pic.twitter.com/LYl493cf6L

— Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) July 17, 2021

DJIA pic.twitter.com/CA97VPgihH

— Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) July 17, 2021

Edit: Answered my own question.

VIX on the weekly looks like a falling wedge that bounced off lower trendline....

Thundergon said:

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How many of y'all keep up with $VIX? Does it actually follow technicals like equities and indices? If so, VIX on the weekly looks like a falling wedge that bounced off lower trendline....

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Vix is designed to degrade to a set point then reverse split. It doesn't behave at all like an Equity. Not for any sort of long term hold.

Thank you

$NFLX

NFLX has an interesting chart. It has a major trendline going back to 2002 (yellow line). The last time it tagged it, was the March 2020 lows before running up to the Darvas box it is in now. The 20-year weekly chart is posted that shows the long term trends. Zooming in the last five years, the darvas box has been between the 61.8% and 100% Fib levels. This past week NFLX tagged the shorter term trendline (going back to 2012) which was almost the top of the darvas box before pulling back. It's been in a weekly squeeze since October of 2020 too. Earnings are this week, but if this thing comes back and touches the 2002 yellow trendline within the box, that might be a really good place to go long with box break soon to follow imo.

GTIAG09 said:

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BREwmaster said:

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lots of bullish MSFT action today (calls)... Theta Warrior has been on it. earnings is 7/28.

I went with verticals 7/30 expiration: 295c/297.50c

risk 33, max is 217

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What do you think of the MSFT 7/30 295/300/305 Butterfly? Max loss roughly $24, max gain roughly $476 per contract

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I like it! I'm not the expert on flies, but if the markets hold this could pay! 300 will probably be a tough level to crack, but if earnings are as good as the big money thinks then "cha ching".

59 South said:

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Fading the sentiment of this board has usually worked in the past. Objectively, I've been leaning a little bearish or sideways lately expecting typical seasonality of bearish mid/late August into October but you guys and your insistent bearishness is confusing my algo. Either y'all are getting better, or shorts are about to get absolutely destroyed annihilated crushed etc. The bearishness of fintwit is stellar too. Almost so much that if my cajones were bigger I'd go full leveraged long because I know there is no way "they" are gonna let fintwit be right. I'm just gonna stay neutral for the time being.

Cheers mates, enjoy the weekend and as Reddog says 'feed the brain'

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I have been paying attention to lack of breadth, low volume, indexes continuing to grind. Maybe we are right?