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cisgenderedAggie
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In reply to Madmarttigan • 8:16p, 2/17/21
i agree about overthinking it with individual biopharma stocks. Before last year, I refused to touch them. I've worked with probably more than 100 public ally traded ones over the years and the price movements are almost always nonsensical with respect to what's happening under the hood. Outside of the majors, it's almost all pump and dump for fundraising. Trading the price action and patterns is clearly a different story though. Don't need to know anything about the business, just enough about the industry to know that but and hold is foolish.

I suppose my point is really that I don't follow how forgetting the net free positions makes sense. Most will never be worth more than their momentary pump and dump, right?
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Mr President Elect
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8:22p, 2/17/21
AG
Sorry this is a little off-topic, but what is the story behind "I like the stock" for GME? I just read roaring kitty's opening remarks to congress and he included it in his conclusion.
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Lt. Joe Bookman
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8:38p, 2/17/21
AG
Hey my Feb 56 calls for Verizon were essentially worthless yesterday afternoon and are 2.5x now. Hoping AAPL listens and follows suit.
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Fireman
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In reply to Fireman • 8:47p, 2/17/21
AG
Fireman said:
Red Red Wine said:
RIOT

Is there a PT on this one? Up to $59 ($10 today).
Longer term investment for me. Hard to see it less than $85 by November this year with the way bitcoin is moving. Shorter term, you may see a pull back, and then a sharp increase over $70 during the summer. Keep watching Bitcoin, and as Bitcoin goes, so will RIOT.
Or it could be $80.00 by Thursday.
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Madmarttigan
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In reply to Mr President Elect • 8:55p, 2/17/21
AG
Mr President Elect said:
Sorry this is a little off-topic, but what is the story behind "I like the stock" for GME? I just read roaring kitty's opening remarks to congress and he included it in his conclusion.


Likely one of the main Reddit folks started saying this and it just caught on. People started throwing it out for all the stocks involved in the movement. Probably won't go away on a lot of the retail stock chatter.
Formerly tv1113
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Rice and Fries
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In reply to Mr President Elect • 8:58p, 2/17/21
Mr President Elect said:
Sorry this is a little off-topic, but what is the story behind "I like the stock" for GME? I just read roaring kitty's opening remarks to congress and he included it in his conclusion.


He's been promoting GameStop since 2019. The whole "I like the stock" is based of people claiming it was market manipulation. So they decided to just say "I'm buying because I like the stock" and it stuck.
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jeremy
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In reply to cisgenderedAggie • 9:05p, 2/17/21
AG
cisgenderedAggie said:
jeremy said:
### BOLD PREDICTION###

Disclaimer- Don't buy anything because of me, Just putting my reputation on the line to call a shot based on my analysis. I'm a newb, but have been boning up and have a screener that has proven effective.

Aapl finally goes up tonight/tomorrow. I don't yet know how to predict how high it will ride, but I'm saying it will go up a couple of dollars tomorrow (or more, still don't know how high)

SNDL isn't done and is going to be returning up tomorrow.

That's it. Feel free to haze and ban me if I missed the boat. I've been studying like mad with the down weather this week and I'm feeling good on these two. I'm getting stir-crazy, that's why I posted my prediction for the texags world to see. I obviously could have done this without announcing to everyone.


I'll be back to eat some crow tomorrow or high-five those that are in these two positions waiting for some gains to come back.





I don't see it with SNDL. They're probably not really more than about a $350M market cap company that says they plan to sell a billion in shares over the next few months. Absent Meme stonk behavior alone, that has to be a big headwind. I dumped everything today for 100% profit on the play over the last 3 weeks. Buy in again if it drops below $1, but I'm calling it a win at this point and trying not to look back.
You may be spot on. I'm not calling SNDL to keep rising forever, but I'm predicting they rise tomorrow and maybe the day after. I'm net free on them. If they go up again, I may sell about half of my net free shares and keep the rest just incase weed is ever legalized and they end up being the big winner.
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BlueTaze
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In reply to Madmarttigan • 9:22p, 2/17/21
tv1113 said:
I am very interested to see how insane the shorted shares have grown on CLOV. Willing to bet it has doubled from 1/29.


Is this a chess play against Chamath? I've seen him mocked as "Mr Retail" with his defense on reddit bullying.
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BlueTaze
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In reply to Lt. Joe Bookman • 9:24p, 2/17/21
Lt. Joe Bookman said:
Hey my Feb 56 calls for Verizon were essentially worthless yesterday afternoon and are 2.5x now. Hoping AAPL listens and follows suit.


NOK is dabbling in enough 5g infrastructure to make them a buyout candidate or worst case a reddit/Atlas pump. Worth a look at $4.
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gougler08
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9:28p, 2/17/21
AG
I sold 2/19 EBON 12.5 covered calls yesterday thinking that's easy premium...whoops
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Brewmaster
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In reply to gougler08 • 9:41p, 2/17/21
AG
gougler08 said:
I sold 2/19 EBON 12.5 covered calls yesterday thinking that's easy premium...whoops
touche, sold weekly 51C's on MARA. I still have a chance though!
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Ornithopter
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In reply to gougler08 • 9:42p, 2/17/21
AG
I had to roll my 10cs to March 12.5cs. Welp, guess those are toast.
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I bleed maroon
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In reply to cisgenderedAggie • 9:44p, 2/17/21
AG
cisgenderedAggie said:
Slappy007 said:
Slappy007 said:
mazag08 said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I didn't accumulate nearly enough ONTX over the summer, but it is fantastic to own shares at a net cost of $0.25.
Until the stock plummets to $0.10
That's the whole point of net free. Get net free, set it, and forget it
One of the things that worked for me is having two accounts, my trading account and my net free/long term account. I keep my net free stocks in one account and look at them very infrequently. I have to have things compartmentalized in order for me to be effective. I hated having to see my P/L fluctuate like it did, but have seen loved seeing the other account move up over time.


There's still something about the net free psychology I don't get. Let's say you have 30K net free in ONTX. That's $45k at close today. I get that there's no need to stress if it drops to $0.1, because that's still $3K up. What I don't get is the forgetting about it. It's still a paper position if never realized and it isn't producing revenue through dividends or covered calls. Forgetting it makes it effectively dead.

I might be poisoned on this one because I've worked with Onconova in the past (disclaimer: it was years ago and I'm in no conceivable way at risk of insider trading). They are never going to be a blockbuster biopharma. That said, since ONTX has been part of my learning experience over the last year, it seems like a point that is relevant to other companies too. There's very few likely cases where I'm going to have such a strong belief about the stonk's business case or lack therof, especially when most are not in my industry. At some point, don't you just need to take the W and move on?
I think this is because you are taking it literally. There is virtually no one who would tell you to just forget about it forever. It's really bankroll management, just like in a casino. If you've doubled your money at a craps or blackjack table, it's a good idea to put half of it in your pocket and play with only the winnings. It helps you resist the psychological impulse to "let it ride", sometimes just for the adrenaline rush.

The correct answer, of course, is that every day you should assess each element of your portfolio, disregarding sunk costs (or previous gains) and decide if each holding is the highest and best use of that capital (including tax impact of potential disposal). If it isn't, you should absolutely sell it and buy something with greater go-forward potential. This includes keeping it in cash, if you strongly believe a downturn is imminent.

Of course, few of us have the daily discipline to zero-base their portfolio each day, especially if you've gathered a large-ish number of holdings. So, rules of thumb like net-free, playing with house money, setting xx% trailing stops, and other methods can make a very complex process of managing a portfolio just a little easier. There's nothing at all wrong with these, but they aren't the "be all and end all" rules. It's your money - - buy a boat or a plane with it if you must.
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gougler08
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In reply to Ornithopter • 9:45p, 2/17/21
AG
DubFalls said:
I had to roll my 10cs to March 12.5cs. Welp, guess those are toast.


I mean, it's a 100% gain in 2 weeks if called out...I'll certainly take it
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Ornithopter
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In reply to gougler08 • 9:51p, 2/17/21
AG
gougler08 said:
DubFalls said:
I had to roll my 10cs to March 12.5cs. Welp, guess those are toast.


I mean, it's a 100% gain in 2 weeks if called out...I'll certainly take it


Oh, I'm not complaining. And that's only on half my shares that would send me net free. Just kinda funny how fast that happened.
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canagian
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In reply to cisgenderedAggie • 9:56p, 2/17/21
AG
cisgenderedAggie said:

There's still something about the net free psychology I don't get... At some point, don't you just need to take the W and move on?
I have done exactly that, selling portions of ONTX on the way up. At the end of 2020 I owned about 50k shares net free. I'm down to about 15k because I've sold tranches at $0.75, $1, and today sold some at $1.50. You can never tell when the party is going to come to a screeching halt, so I've always taken some profits on the way up the mountain. $35k in profits banked, hoping more to come but you never know...
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to oldarmy1 • 12:22a, 2/18/21
AG
oldarmy1 said:
I would think this forum would have banners and party icons all over the place for ONTX. We HAVE to have people with 30,40,100k net free shares after all the 30 cent to 60 cent strategies. And if late to the party the 45 to 70 swings identified.

Heck. NIO should be an easy 10 bagger for most of us.
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FJ43
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3:20a, 2/18/21
Morning all. Hope everyone is doing ok and staying safe.

Not exactly the premarket open was hoping for with SPY and Qs a bit lower than yesterday's close. But....

I vote we rally.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to aggiedaniel06 • 4:04a, 2/18/21
aggiedaniel06 said:
Something to point out is that 99% of the short term trades on this thread, fintwit and retail in general is purely Beta based and not by finding any Alpha.

This strategy will only be successful in a trending market like we have had since 2016. You can clearly see this on a day like today - markets are barely red and I'm sure many are seeing deep red in their ports due to the high beta names that retail heavily trades.

I see mentions of people wanting to do this for a living. You have to have an alpha based strategy if you ever want to do this for life. If you only rely on beta as a strategy, its always feast or famine, and if you play long enough, you'll incur heavy losses.

I get the idea of looking to leverage price trends of lower beta stocks, but that's tough to do in this market. Over the last 4 months my worst trades have been options trades on lower beta stocks. Am I increasing the volatility too much by relatively short expiration dates? I also realize that the board has seemed to shift to higher beta plays recently, but again most of those have been my good trades.

I know you don't want to give away the farm and I'm sure your partners are not keen on you posting detailed strategies or current plays on the internet, but could you give us some examples of plays you have been in since November? What are some good plays you bought, when did you buy and sell? Maybe to help us understand in general what you've done?
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frankm01
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5:00a, 2/18/21
Morning! Up with the big boys today. Finally had power on all night but still no water. In any event, hoping for a good open.
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FJ43
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In reply to frankm01 • 5:08a, 2/18/21
frankm01 said:
Morning! Up with the big boys today. Finally had power on all night but still no water. In any event, hoping for a good open.
We will need bulls to come in here otherwise probably pretty red open. SPY down, Qs down and VIX rising and over 23....all at the moment anyway.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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5:09a, 2/18/21
AAPL down to 129.28 here premarket and well below the 50 EMA
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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59 South
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 5:10a, 2/18/21
AG
The 'this isn't going to end well' crowd is becoming increasingly unbearable. The people who think (or know) they're smarter than everyone else.... (not a personal shot at you Daniel... just a recent general observation mostly in the fintwit world)

You can create your own alpha by trading beta. So sound active traders are probably up many multiples since 2016. They're also likely protecting their capital unless they're complete idiots. So is it really a loss if they have a 20% drawdown after going up 10x or more in the last couple of years? They're playing the market in front of them and will be agile when things change.

Look at how a lot of popular traders followed on here have adjusted. OA, Dan, Redler... all were playing FAANG large cap 'beta' 2018-19 and have all quickly adjusted to small/mid caps, SPACs, EVs...

I highly recommend everyone read John Carter's book to understand his strategies. This board really gambles too much on naked options (calls usually) and penny stocks. That is usually retail's biggest mistake. I used to make those mistakes all the time a few years ago. When I stopped it for the most part, my returns have come easier, steadier and with a way better night's sleep.

It's better to ensure downside protection by going the call (or put) spread route (debit or credit). And if you can't watch it non stop, buy shares with a stop loss set and sell covered calls if it jumps. Treat the market like a casino, and the market will treat you like a casino customer except you don't get the complementary drinks

I learned a good lesson this past week. I played the AAPL 2/19 calls with you guys and will be almost certainly riding those down to zero on a rather large position for naked options for me. At TRIT $8.70 I will have completely countered that AAPL full loss trade in less than a week playing a way safer approach of buying some shares at support and selling some puts a week out OTM. I keep learning over and over again what suits me. Hopefully I'll learn for good at some point

As always, mind the sig below....
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!

Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
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Ornithopter
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In reply to FJ43 • 5:12a, 2/18/21
AG
The portion of my portfolio that is basically a TexAgs ETF is looking red at the moment, with the exception of IWM puts.

ARKK is down too. GLD is up. Going to be interesting going into Friday I think.
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FJ43
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In reply to Ornithopter • 5:32a, 2/18/21
DubFalls said:
The portion of my portfolio that is basically a TexAgs ETF is looking red at the moment, with the exception of IWM puts.

ARKK is down too. GLD is up. Going to be interesting going into Friday I think.
With the exception of CLOV, all of my share positions are green with the lowest at 3.9% positive and highest (excluding net free approach) 140%. My options positions not so much. Half and half but unfortunately I did a poor job of managing those that are in the red. Let some slightly positive turn red on me thinking the chart was lying. Others chased.

On those options, poor execution on my part and not the 'markets' fault. I know better.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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rtpAggie
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5:37a, 2/18/21
Can someone explain this to me like I'm 5?

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Ornithopter
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In reply to FJ43 • 5:40a, 2/18/21
AG
I just meant it's red premarket. My portfolio is overall is fine.
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FJ43
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In reply to ag94whoop • 5:44a, 2/18/21
ag94whoop said:
Re: CLOV

there should be a serious limit to the number of times a law firm can "Remind Investors" of a class action lawsuit, especially when there isnt a significant amount of actual evidence at play.

They pound the news cycle daily. That should not be allowed as it artificially suppresses the trading of that stock and looks like a blatant attempt to enhance losses to further their case. There are 7-10 companies each announcing every day. It's ridiculous.

They should be limited to announcing on Mondays only of each week. once a week is PLENTY.

I will get off my soapbox now.
You will be welcomed to several more middle of the night and early morning reminders from the same firms and news alerts. I have a continuous news feed and not sure I remember a time when I have seen 4, 5, 6, 10 reminders every day on one stock from the same firms. I now think this is personal against Chamath for his stance on some things recently but probably just my emotion speaking.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Talon2DSO
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In reply to rtpAggie • 5:47a, 2/18/21
AG
rtpAggie said:
Can someone explain this to me like I'm 5?



Lots of red. Everything is going to be on sale. Have cash ready but don't jump in until you see bull indicators like green hammer or pennants.
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cageybee77
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In reply to Talon2DSO • 5:54a, 2/18/21
AG
Still in cash myself. Not jumping in until the overall market has more reason to go up. Watchful waiting. Could be waiting a loooong time tho.
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fastgreens
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6:23a, 2/18/21
AG
Any advice on what to do with my .25 2/19 2.50 NXTD calls?

All I have left is net free, but do not want to lose any profits. Wondering if I should sell right at the open or watch it today?

Thanks!
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FJ43
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In reply to fastgreens • 6:52a, 2/18/21
fastgreens said:
Any advice on what to do with my .25 2/19 2.50 NXTD calls?

All I have left is net free, but do not want to lose any profits. Wondering if I should sell right at the open or watch it today?

Thanks!
If 2/19 I would be selling into a push up and try and time best you can the retrace. Not sure if that is best but if I am trying to exit a play on momentum it is about the only time I use the 1 minute.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Engine10
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In reply to fastgreens • 6:56a, 2/18/21
AG
fastgreens said:
Any advice on what to do with my .25 2/19 2.50 NXTD calls?

All I have left is net free, but do not want to lose any profits. Wondering if I should sell right at the open or watch it today?

Thanks!

Can't go broke taking a profit - especially if markets take a dump today. Theta ramping up on you, window is closing. Manage your account to your own risk tolerance
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FJ43
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In reply to Engine10 • 7:00a, 2/18/21
Engine10 said:
fastgreens said:
Any advice on what to do with my .25 2/19 2.50 NXTD calls?

All I have left is net free, but do not want to lose any profits. Wondering if I should sell right at the open or watch it today?

Thanks!

Can't go broke taking a profit - especially if markets take a dump today. Theta ramping up on you, window is closing. Manage your account to your own risk tolerance
This exactly especially expiring tomorrow. I would be selling on any push and if no push I'm out.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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gougler08
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:09a, 2/18/21
AG
FJ43 said:
AAPL down to 129.28 here premarket and well below the 50 EMA


I have March calls but I'm cutting bait and taking the loss
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