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LatinAggie1997
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AG
Thanks.

This is a positive for crypto or doesn't move the needle?

Thoughts on Cresco Labs and NIO?
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Here's the text if you are not a WSJ subscriber:

WASHINGTON Janet Yellen is expected to affirm the U.S.'s commitment to market-determined exchange rates when she testifies on Capitol Hill Tuesday, and she will make clear the U.S. doesn't seek a weaker dollar for competitive advantage, according to Biden transition officials familiar with her hearing preparation.

The remarks would represent a return to the U.S.'s hands-off approach to the dollar, which President Trump had deviated from by often publicly calling for a lower dollar.

Ms. Yellen, the former Federal Reserve chairwoman, is set to appear before the Senate Finance Committee Tuesday as it considers her nomination to be the next U.S. Treasury secretary, succeeding Steven Mnuchin.

If asked about the new administration's dollar policy, officials responsible for briefing Ms. Yellen said she is prepared to say, "The value of the U.S. dollar and other currencies should be determined by markets. Markets adjust to reflect variations in economic performance and generally facilitate adjustments in the global economy."

Ms. Yellen is also expected to say the intentional targeting of exchange rates to gain an unfair advantage in trade is unacceptable.

"The United States doesn't seek a weaker currency to gain competitive advantage," she is prepared to say, according to the officials. "We should oppose attempts by other countries to do so."

That too is consistent with the pre-Trump norm when administrations, while generally eschewing any view on the dollar's appropriate level, would criticize countries they saw as artificially influencing their own currency's value for competitive advantage.

With her testimony Tuesday, Ms. Yellen will aim to use more precise language that reflects longstanding U.S. currency policy over the past two decades, the transition officials said. The U.S. for decades has taken a hands-off approach to the dollar, allowing markets to determine its value. Since 1995, the U.S. has only intervened in currency markets three timesin 1998, 2000 and 2011.

Ms. Yellen also doesn't find it useful to regularly comment on the value of the dollar, and she wants to make clear that the U.S. Treasury, under her leadership, wouldn't seek to weaken its value, according to the officials. Under the incoming administration, no other cabinet official or White House staff will talk about the dollar, the officials said.

Such an approach would mark a return to more measured language around U.S. currency policy, following frequent and sometimes confusing remarks over the past several years from Trump administration officials, including President Trump.

For roughly a quarter-century, White House and U.S. Treasury officials from Republican and Democratic administrations generally avoided commenting on the dollar, the Federal Reserve or daily moves in stock markets.

Presidential administrations in the 1970s and 1980s regularly commented on the dollar and occasionally intervened, but during the Clinton administration, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin established that the holder of that position was the only official to comment on the dollar. He and his successors generally limited their statements to restating a broad platitude affirming support for a strong and stable currency.

The idea, carried over into ensuing administrations, was to prevent volatility in markets and misunderstanding of the U.S. position on the currency.

Mr. Trump veered away from that norm, disavowing support for a strong dollar and claiming it hampered his efforts to reduce the U.S. trade deficit by putting U.S. companies at a competitive disadvantage. Trump administration officials also considered whether to use currency intervention as a weapon in their trade war.

Mr. Mnuchin briefly rattled currency markets in 2018 when he said a weak dollar could be good for U.S. trade, echoing statements made by Mr. Trump. Mr. Mnuchin later said his remarks had been taken out of context.

The strong dollar benefits U.S. consumers of imports but makes American exports more expensive for foreign customers, weighing on U.S. manufacturers and crimping earnings of multinational companies when they convert foreign profits into dollars.

Republicans and Democrats in Congress in recent years had called for action to keep the dollar from strengthening, during a period when the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates. Higher interest rates tend to strengthen the dollar by boosting returns on U.S. assets, thus drawing overseas investment and purchases of dollars.

According to the Intercontinental Exchange, the dollar has fallen roughly 12% against an index of six major currencies since March, when the Fed cut rates to near zero amid the coronavirus-induced downturn.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I will look later, not near PC. Crypto will go up as long as we are printing
McInnis 03
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AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:

It is a return to pre Trump policy where the treasury / fed will not do anything to either intentionally weaken the dollar or raise it, but rather let the market decide.

Dollar strength is created through high interest rates and keeping inflation in check. I don't believe there will be higher than zero rates for a few years and I think we will keep printing, which will make the dollar weaker. Inflation will eventually come.

This should be good for stonks, but we need to see how futures react in a bit.


Es down 16 handles, but the night is long and full of terrors
texagbeliever
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McInnis 03 said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

It is a return to pre Trump policy where the treasury / fed will not do anything to either intentionally weaken the dollar or raise it, but rather let the market decide.

Dollar strength is created through high interest rates and keeping inflation in check. I don't believe there will be higher than zero rates for a few years and I think we will keep printing, which will make the dollar weaker. Inflation will eventually come.

This should be good for stonks, but we need to see how futures react in a bit.


Es down 16 handles, but the night is long and full of terrors
The night is even longer when tomorrow is a holiday and the markets are closed
BrokeAssAggie
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McInnis 03
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AG
texagbeliever said:

McInnis 03 said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

It is a return to pre Trump policy where the treasury / fed will not do anything to either intentionally weaken the dollar or raise it, but rather let the market decide.

Dollar strength is created through high interest rates and keeping inflation in check. I don't believe there will be higher than zero rates for a few years and I think we will keep printing, which will make the dollar weaker. Inflation will eventually come.

This should be good for stonks, but we need to see how futures react in a bit.


Es down 16 handles, but the night is long and full of terrors
The night is even longer when tomorrow is a holiday and the markets are closed


Great point lol
Cartographer
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Biden out here singlehandedly bringing back the oil and gas prices. Love it.
BrokeAssAggie
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panduh bear said:

Biden out here singlehandedly bringing back the oil and gas prices. Love it.


Yep, they like high oil prices because then they can really push wind, solar, etc.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I saw that it had gapped up to open. -8 handles now.

I think as long as there isn't an inauguration issue, we probably go up like Mancini says. That 3740 level held (so far).

$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
texagbeliever said:

McInnis 03 said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

It is a return to pre Trump policy where the treasury / fed will not do anything to either intentionally weaken the dollar or raise it, but rather let the market decide.

Dollar strength is created through high interest rates and keeping inflation in check. I don't believe there will be higher than zero rates for a few years and I think we will keep printing, which will make the dollar weaker. Inflation will eventually come.

This should be good for stonks, but we need to see how futures react in a bit.


Es down 16 handles, but the night is long and full of terrors
The night is even longer when tomorrow is a holiday and the markets are closed

I don't play ES/NQ futures, but I'm set up for it. Above my skill level.
cisgenderedAggie
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TRP puts or shorts?
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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I've given it a whirl once. I was humbled.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
someone asked about NIO and some other security I didn't recognize. I know nothing about the second, so I have nothing relevant to add on it, sorry. I will offer two perspectives to you on NIO:

  • Value investor: duh, this is a great pick that probably goes to $150. Solid EV company in the #2 (soon to be #1) economy in the world. This isn't bull shiat like $NKLA and they are producing cars. You also have to remember that they're Chinese. Chinese companies do not tell the truth, have no ethics, and can be nationalized at any moment. See Alibaba. So don't put your entire portfolio in it, but I think smart people own this (and will own this). Not owning is sort of like being frustrated you had to pay $200 for Tesla pre split vs. $100. You need to have a 2-3 year time horizon.
  • Trader: could be consolidating to the mean or +1 ATR range. You can probably buy this for $45 or so if you are patient. I would sell $45P without thinking about it. You could look for a bounce off support with confirmed reversal ($54 area) for an upwards trade. Lowest it can probably go without news is $38-40 (see below). This has moved a lot and needs to correct through time or price. It could very well go up and hit 85 on Tuesday. Betting on huge upside from here is lower probability, though, so you would be gambling. I would look for confirmed reversals at support areas such as $54, $50, $40.

$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Nio and Tesla sort of move similarly as well. Scope this out

LatinAggie1997
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LatinAggie1997
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AG
FYI- the other was Cresco labs CRLBG. It is into cannabis.
oldarmy1
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AG
So NIO is a good long term stock to own?

Good to know!

p.s. $30000 - Do you run all those lines on all your charts? What are your settings for each line?
Madmarttigan
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AG
So if market is closed for mlk day why are the futures opened up tonight?
Formerly tv1113
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
oldarmy1 said:

So NIO is a good long term stock to own?

Good to know!

p.s. $30000 - Do you run all those lines on all your charts? What are your settings for each line?
LOL. Aren't you in at $3? My basis is in the 20s.

Those lines are Keltner channels for +/- 1, 2, and 3 upper and lower exponential ATR on a 21 period basis. Gray is mean, blue is 1 ATR, gold is 2, and red is 3.

I use two primary views - this view to see how extended a move is and a typical candle /volume chart with some EMAs on it. I probably don't really need the EMAs as much anymore.

It fits my trading style, which is going for easy money moves from mean to 1/2 ATR or a regression to the mean trade.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
here is the TOS study settings for the 3 ATR one if that's helpful for anyone.

FJ43
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

here is the TOS study settings for the 3 ATR one if that's helpful for anyone.


Do you also use TOS? I thought you were just using Fidelity.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

LatinAggie1997
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AG
OA, I have missed a lot and am far behind.
Are there any stocks you recommend that have large growth potential?
I intend to buy some of that lotto penny stock but just enough that losing it won't matter.


Thanks!


Back in April I saw Roku and Twilio mentioned, unsure who, and they went feom $82/$84 to $385/$450.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
TOS for charting, Fidelity for execution. I run a secondary account on TD/TOS for fun.

I am getting annoyed with Fidelity, though. Their routing to exchanges sucks and the no same day option trades is pissing me off.
FJ43
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The ATR setup 30k utilizes is posted on the Thinkorswim thread for his full 1,2&3. Just add via the link to your study setups and apply.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

TOS for charting, Fidelity for execution. I run a secondary account on TD/TOS for fun.

I am getting annoyed with Fidelity, though. Their routing to exchanges sucks and the no same day option trades is pissing me off.
Thanks. I'm on TD/TOS and IBKR now. I really like the advanced IBKR platform but not near as many tutorials, YouTube videos, help desks, etc. Takes time to figure out with all the order options capabilities and other advanced features. Downside is their customer service isn't near as strong as TDA in my opinion. Still test driving it until I fully commit or not.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Ragoo
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

TOS for charting, Fidelity for execution. I run a secondary account on TD/TOS for fun.

I am getting annoyed with Fidelity, though. Their routing to exchanges sucks and the no same day option trades is pissing me off.
same day trades is Friday only and seems to be newish.
texagbeliever
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Ragoo said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

TOS for charting, Fidelity for execution. I run a secondary account on TD/TOS for fun.

I am getting annoyed with Fidelity, though. Their routing to exchanges sucks and the no same day option trades is pissing me off.
same day trades is Friday only and seems to be newish.
if 30k has the same thing i do, you can't open a position on an option that expires that same day (to avoid being assigned). My issue may be lack of capital to buy the stocks at the strike.
oldarmy1
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AG
PLTR I have some shares and used naked Puts I wouldn't mind getting assigned. I'll definitely be growing that one.

ASAN and BIGC are 2020 IPO's and I think both will do well. I think one (flip a coin) will be $150+, so while the early lead goes to BIGC, either or both could get there. On BIGC I am using a share ($62 average) plus sold the March $70's for $10.40. Those have decayed to $7.14 and it's looking good to continue earning premium with current market conditions.

WWR is the only mass accumulation trade, although I find myslef increasing position in MVIS this past week. I have a call with MVIS CFO Steve Holt and can give some more info on potentially moving more aggressively on position size.

If you trade options then buying MVIS shares and selling the March $9 or $10 calls against some, or all, of the shares. You could also add the naked $5 or $6 March put strategy looking for potential $6 assignment (if we enter a deeper correction) or just pocket the premium to reduce holding share price. Options prices are elevated for a $6-7 stock making this attractive.

If we get a good correction.....let me rephrase that - WHEN we get the next deep correction there will be a whole list of stocks you'd want to enter such as NET, SNAP and others I'd list as markets melt down.
Ragoo
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AG
texagbeliever said:

Ragoo said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

TOS for charting, Fidelity for execution. I run a secondary account on TD/TOS for fun.

I am getting annoyed with Fidelity, though. Their routing to exchanges sucks and the no same day option trades is pissing me off.
same day trades is Friday only and seems to be newish.
if 30k has the same thing i do, you can't open a position on an option that expires that same day (to avoid being assigned). My issue may be lack of capital to buy the stocks at the strike.
you are correct, but I believe this wasn't always the case. Must have had a lot of people doing so on margin and getting margin calls.
oldarmy1
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AG
Add SKLZ to the list. Buy dips or hope for correction to take it back to flash under $18 for best entry.
LatinAggie1997
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AG
Thank you sir.
D2F1D0
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AG
I'm just getting into this stuff (signed up for your class)

What entry points are looking at for NET, etc.

Calling me a nood would be insulting to newbies. Looking to match your thoughts with what I think it's an entry/exist strategy.
Chaos is reality, clarity is the goal, simplicity is a choice.
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FJ43
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Morning all. While no trading great day to regroup, create those net free tracking workbooks, practice some charting and find the next good trade opportunity.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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