Yeah I got both doses I'm fine. I question this headline and people spreading it around. Sounds like they have it to people that were already a step from death.

It's that age problem. Waiting for a fix...

oldarmy1 said:

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It's that age problem. Waiting for a fix...

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The first 150 year old has already been born.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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It's that age problem. Waiting for a fix...

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The first 150 year old has already been born.

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honestly I doubt it.

People who want to live 150 years, especially with the overbearing world govts these days, are screwed up in the head.

tv1113 said:

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Yeah I got both doses I'm fine. I question this headline and people spreading it around. Sounds like they have it to people that were already a step from death.

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I could write a similar headline: 50 people died this morning after breakfast. Sounds like their biscuits killed them, when the reality is they died of a variety of things (though you can't rule out the cause of death being a bran muffin - those things like when cardboard meets a baking class).

In Norway, it's 29 people who have died in the days following vaccination. 3/4 were older than 80. Did the immune response push them over the edge? Hard to know, exactly, in someone that frail. If they were that frail that a vaccination kills them, then any infection / immune reaction is likely to do the same thing.

The other reaction is Bell's Palsy, which occurred in 4 patients of the Phase 3 vaccination arm. There wasn't a lot of description I saw about the Israelis, except most patients seemed to say it lasted about a day before resolving.

Severe allergic reactions to the vaccine are running about 11 per million vaccinations.

TubTub said:

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Ragoo said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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It's that age problem. Waiting for a fix...

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The first 150 year old has already been born.

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honestly I doubt it.

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In the past century, the technological advancement in everything has been unlike any other in human history. Everyday life has been made easier and better for many in developed nations, I'll bet on human ingenuity to find a way.

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our bodies are in constant state of decay. Medicines can slow it down or heal it to some degree. If anyone gets there it would be pure luck.

Kind of like co-morbidity and Covid.

I'm agonizing over how to handle GOCO this month. They are almost certain to report Q4 and first full year earnings this month and assuming nothing throws a wrench into the plans we should be in for a treat. Doesn't seem unreasonable we should be able to get back to 20ish IPO price, and I think we'll get some run up into it, so I've run pretty much every scenario I can come up with and think I have a plan, but wonder what you guys think. These are all based on February expiration and B/A at close Friday. FYI, I'm considering doing this for my entire cash position, which is ~40% of my trading account (which is maybe 10% of my retirement). I think I may be responsible and scale it back to 20-25% because it feels like a lot of money and I had the same feelings on PYX and lost a lot of money when they decided to file bk before they reported the earnings when they were supposed to incorporate the previous quarter's deferred rev, so I'm gunshy. Giddy for the day I get invited to join that class action. But I digress. Here are the scenarios:

Buy and hold shares: $15 basis, $20sp is 33% return, upside not limited

Buy shares and sell $15 calls for 1.40. Basis lowered to 13.6, closing stock price above $15 gets shares called away at a 9.3% return
Buy shares and sell $17.5 calls for .65. Basis lowered to 14.35, closing stock price above $17.5 gets shares called away at a 21% return
Buy shares and sell $20 calls for .25. Basis lowered to 14.75, closing stock price above $20 gets shares called away at a 35% return

Sell $15 puts for 1.4 tying up $1500. Basis if assigned is 13.6 or 9.3% return if they expire worthless.
Sell $17.5 puts for 3.1 tying up $1750. Basis if assigned is 13.9 or 17.7% return if they expire worthless.
Sell $20 puts for 5.2 tying up $2000. Basis if assigned is 14.8 or 26% return if the sp flies and they expire worthless.

Buy $15 calls for 1.55, break even at 16.55, these have intrinsic value of $5 if the sp hits $20 for a 322% return
Buy $17.5 calls for .75, break even at 18.25, these have intrinsic value of $2.5 if the sp hits $20 for a 333% return
Buy $20 calls for .35, break even at 20.35, these are earnings lottos.

I don't think I can go wrong with either of the $17.5 strategies (buy shares/sell calls or sell puts) as I'm happy to own shares sub-15, but my FOMO has me leaning toward the put strategy paired with purchasing 17.5 calls to capture upside. This also lets me bank if the stock pulls a 2020 and reports good earnings and gets held below 17.5 through an opex, where straight long calls would get crushed
Of course there's the black swan scenario where they miss hard, tank, and I'm stuck holding shares, which is the only thing keeping me from going all in

Y'all have thoughts on any of this, or thoughts on how to size/allocate?

I have half of my GOCO shares against March 17.5C. I'm okay with being assigned and it moves me very close to net free. For the other half, I am doing nothing. I am not planning to buy protective puts because GOCO is 2% of my account value.

To use OA's terminology, if we get to 17.5 by March I'll consider it planted.